BHP Group (ASX:BHP) Expects to Meet or Exceed FY25 Production Goals, Extends Life of Key Chilean Asset

Highlights

• BHP’s H1FY25 revenue declined by 8% YoY while attributable profit rose by 376% YoY.
• The company reports Citigroup trims substantial holding from 6.30% to 5.30% as of 15 May 2025.
• BHP reaffirms FY30 target to cut operational emissions by at least 30% despite delays.
• The company expects to achieve or exceed its FY25 production guidance, including 1,845–2,045 kt of copper, 255–265.5 Mt of iron ore, 16.5–19 Mt of steelmaking coal, and 13–15 Mt of energy coal.

BHP Group Limited (ASX:BHP) is an ASX-listed global resources company engaged in exploration, production, and processing of iron ore, copper, and coal, with multinational operations focused on sustainable value, innovation, and long-term growth.

In the first half of the financial year 2025 (H1FY25), the company’s revenue declined by 8% YoY to USD 25,176 million, mainly due to lower realised prices for iron ore and steelmaking coal, partially offset by higher copper prices. Despite the price pressures, the company’s attributable profit rose by 376% YoY to USD 4,416 million, supported by disciplined cost control and operational performance. However, net operating cash flow fell by 6% YoY to USD 8,317 million in H1FY25, primarily due to reduced iron ore prices

During the nine months of financial year 2025 (9MFY25), copper production rose by 10% YoY to 1,500 kt, driven by higher output at Escondida, Spence, and Copper South America. Iron ore production grew by 1% YoY to 193 Mt, with Western Australia Iron Ore’s (WAIO) central hub delivering poistive performance despite weather impacts. Steelmaking coal output rose 5% YoY at BMA despite the wettest period in over a decade.

Business Update

BHP reported that Citigroup Global Markets Australia Pty Limited reduced its substantial shareholding from 6.30% to 5.30% on 15 May 2025 through various market transactions and lending arrangements involving multiple global entities.

Company Outlook

BHP aims to reduce operational greenhouse gas emissions by minimum 30% by FY30 and is continuing the rollout of zero-emission technologies despite project delays. The company expects to meet or exceed FY25 production targets, including 1,845–2,045 kt of copper, 255–265.5 Mt of iron ore, 16.5–19 Mt of steelmaking coal, and 13–15 Mt of energy coal.

BHP is maintaining unit cost guidance across most operations for FY25, although costs at BMA may rise due to adverse weather and geotechnical challenges. Additionally, the company has extended the life of Escondida’s Los Colorados concentrator past FY29, expects to lift output by ~400 kt to 900–1,000 ktpa through FY31.

Top 10 Shareholders of BHP

The top 10 shareholders of BHP collectively hold approximately 26.75% of the total shares, with The Vanguard Group, Inc. and State Street Global Advisors Australia Ltd. owning the largest stakes at around 6.00% and 5.03%, respectively.

Stock Information

BHP closed at AUD 38.6 per share on 7 July 2025. The stock price has increased by approximately 0.31% over the past month and dropped by almost 0.26% over the last six months. The stock has a 52-week high of AUD 46.23, recorded on 30 September 2024 and 52-week low stands at AUD 33.25, recorded on 7 April 2025.

Support and Resistance Summary

Note 1: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

Note 2: The reference data for all price data, currency, technical indicators, support, and resistance levels is 07 July 2025. The reference data in this report has been partly sourced from EODHD/Others.

Technical Indicators Defined

Support: A level at which the stock prices tend to find support if they are falling, and a downtrend may take a pause backed by demand or buying interest. Support 1 refers to the nearby support level for the stock and if the price breaches the level, then Support 2 may act as the crucial support level for the stock.

Resistance: A level at which the stock prices tend to find resistance when they are rising, and an uptrend may take a pause due to profit booking or selling interest. Resistance 1 refers to the nearby resistance level for the stock and if the price surpasses the level, then Resistance 2 may act as the crucial resistance level for the stock.

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