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Highlights
- Multiple agencies are predicting a Liberal win in Canada snap election
- 2021 snap election results will be out soon and the actual tally may be in contrast with projections
- In actual counting so far, Conservatives are fast catching up
Canada snap election result will decide what path the country takes from hereon. The two major parties, Liberal and Conservative, had given tentative details of their preferences in respective election platforms. If there is one thing that remained a bone of contention between the two, it was government debt.
Although the Conservative party, led by Erin O’Toole, promised billions of dollars in new spending if it forms the government, the mention of balancing the government budget set it apart from Liberal party.
Image source: Pixabay
Liberal seem to be returning to the House
Forecasts by news agencies are clearly predicting a Liberal win in 2021 snap election.
Multiple television broadcasters including the Canadian Broadcasting Corporation are of a view that the Trudeau-led party will yet-again form a minority government. At the time of writing, the Liberals could take 38 per cent of the 1.6 million votes counted. The Conservatives are said to have won 33 per cent of vote share, and the New Democratic Party, led by Jagmeet Singh, had almost 16 per cent share.
Two of the key provinces that could have tilted the election in Liberals’ favor are Quebec and Ontario.
But conservatives haven’t yet lost
A few major changes in the newly-elected House of Commons are out. Bernadette Jordan, the fisheries minister in the government, is said to have lost to the Conservative candidate. Another Liberal, Lenore Zann, has lost to Conservative Stephen Ellis in Cumberland-Colchester.
Although the results of only a handful of seats are yet declared, the repeat of the 2019 election is likely. In 2019, the Liberals lost their majority in the House and had to settle with a minority government. Trudeau justified his call for earlier-than-scheduled election by claiming that the minority government is unable to implement reforms. The pandemic dealt a considerable blow to the economy. The government stepped in with spending measures, and Trudeau sought majority to undertake key policy initiatives.
Also read: Canada snap election: Parties take opposite sides on vaccine mandate
The votes are being counted, and it is yet a puzzle whether the projections will match actual results.
Predictions may or may not match the real outcome
The Conservatives may not have been the favourite of the news agencies in their forecasts, but the beauty of democracy lies in the unpredictability of the mood of the electorate.
In the run up to the elections, various agencies reported a plunge in the approval ratings of the incumbent Prime Minister. Many said that Trudeau hurried in calling an election, and this might anger the electorate. The handling of the COVID-19 pandemic was praised by some quarters; however the recent surge could have changed the perception.
The Canadian stock market relies on how the new government preserves the financial health of families. In Canada and elsewhere, retail investor frenzy has led to record surge in indices. The TSX Composite Index touched 20,000 for the first time in June 2021. A key factor behind this surge was the government’s cash support to households that preserved demand in the economy.
Also read: Canada snap election 2021: How a Liberal win could impact stock markets
Bottomline
The votes are being counted and the real picture of 2021 snap election will soon be out. Most agencies are predicting a Liberal win, albeit without majority seats. Actual result of snap election can however swing in any direction.
