IMF ups the growth forecast; India to grow fastest

2 min read | April 07, 2021 12:46 PM AEST | By Team Kalkine Media

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Aided by a lower base, the International Monetary Fund (I.M.F.) expects the world economy to rebound by 6% in 2021, after a complete economic washout in 2020 due to Coronavirus pandemic.

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This is a 50 basis points (bps) improvement in expectations in three months: I.M.F. had expected world economy to grow 5.5% earlier in January this year.

However, the growth numbers of the world economy are expected to slow down post 2021. The fund expects the global GDP for 2022 to increase by 4.4%, an improvement over earlier estimate of 4.2%. Last year, as world locked down itself to battle raging coronavirus pandemic, the global gross domestic product (G.D.P.) witnessed an estimated historic contraction of 3.3%.

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While the advanced economies are set to grow by 5.1% in 2021, the emerging market economies are expected to grow by 6.7%.

“Recoveries are diverging dangerously across and within countries,” the fund’s chief economist Gita Gopinath said in World Economic Outlook report released on April 6, 2020.

India, which was one of the worst hit by the pandemic-induced recession last year, is expected to be the fastest growing economy this year – growing in double digits. As the fund expects India to grow 12.5%, the world’s second most populous country is expected to reach the pre-pandemic level of G.D.P. this year.

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China, where Coronavirus originated from, is projected to grow this year at 8.4% -- relegating to second-fastest growing economy. China’s economy had already returned to pre-pandemic GDP last year itself.  However, many other countries are not expected to return to pre-pandemic levels for next three year, according to Gopinath.

Out of 195 economies tracked by the fund, only 14 are expected to see contraction in 2021, while all others are expected to grow.


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