If there is one dominant theme in financial markets these days, it is the plunging price of bonds. Bonds and yield prices are inversely correlated, so yields are surging.
Investors become anxious and avoid risky assets whenever yields pass a certain level. Stocks, therefore, are under pressure.
Moreover, investors flee to other safety assets instead of bonds, such as the world reserve currency – the US dollar. The greenback has been on a tear higher since the summer months.
After peaking above 1.12, the EUR/USD no trades well below 1.06. Basically, it is back to where it started the trading year.
The same is true with other major pairs, such as the GBP/USD or the AUD/USD. Furthermore, the USD/JPY surged over 149 as the Bank of Japan signaled it had no intention of changing its policy course.
It is, therefore, a dollar squeeze that hurts particularly badly. The reason is that there is no pullback whatsoever. Only capitulation from those caught on the wrong side of the market.
And there are many such traders.
Long-dated bonds got hammered on Monday
It was a Monday to remember for bondholders as they were squeezed aggressively. In particular, long-dated bonds got hammered.
For example, the 100-year Austrian government bond price plunged to 63.3 – an all-time low. Also, the iShares 20 Plus Year Treasury Bond ETF plunged, continuing its yearly decline, now down over -12% YTD.

Moreover, the 10-year yields keep rising, trading above 4.54% yesterday – the highest level since 2007.
Given the bond market’s blood bath, stocks are also under pressure. However, stocks did not drop yesterday as they usually do when bond prices fall that much. It could be just a coincidence, but this is a sign that maybe bonds have reached a bottom.
In any case, picking a bottom is difficult for anyone involved in financial markets.
Central banks may have come closer to the peak of the tightening cycle via interest rate hikes, but other tools keep tightening financial conditions. For example, quantitative tightening is ongoing in most of the advanced economies.
To sum up, bond prices rule the markets for now. Unless we see a change in the trend, this week may bring an ugly end to the trading month.
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