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Bitcoin experienced its largest weekly return of 10% since early July, driven by a favorable speech from United States Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell regarding rate cuts in September. Bitcoin's price surpassed $62,000 for the first time since August 1, and after a 6% increase on August 23, it tested the $65,000 level twice. However, despite these gains, Bitcoin has struggled to demonstrate sustained bullish momentum on shorter timeframes.
A period of sideways consolidation following a bullish breakout is typically seen as positive. However, current indicators suggest that {Bitcoin} (BTC) might face another correction, retreating to the $62,000–$60,000 range.
Data from CryptoQuant reveals that Bitcoin exchange reserves increased by approximately 2,000 BTC over the past week. Despite the overall downtrend in cryptocurrency exchange reserves, this rise in Bitcoin reserves might suggest some additional buying pressure before the end of the month.
Recent market movements saw significant short liquidations, with over $140 million on August 23 and an additional $52 million on August 24. The price of Bitcoin, currently approaching the $65,000 level, is moving towards areas with substantial long-side liquidity. Around $300 million in long liquidations may occur between $63,000 and $60,000. These liquidity clusters are contributing to Bitcoin’s current volatile market conditions, with the possibility of clearing lower liquidity levels before a resumption of the uptrend.
The long/short ratio for Bitcoin is currently 0.95, with approximately 51% of positions being short. Despite Bitcoin’s recent rebound, the persistence of short positions suggests continued price pressure throughout August.
Historically, Bitcoin’s performance in the third quarter has been weaker compared to other quarters. The average return on investment (ROI) for Q3 over the past decade is notably lower than Q1, Q2, and Q4. August and September generally exhibit lower average ROIs, with September typically recording the lowest, while August’s average ROI stands at 2.34%, just ahead of June's figure.
