Terms Beginning With 'b'

Bond Yield

What is Bond Yield?

Bond yield refers to the annualized return received by an investor from a bond. Bond yield may not always be equal to the coupon rate as the current yield is dependent on the current market price. The current yield is also dependent on the coupon or interest rate.

When the price of the coupon differs from its face value, then the current yield is a more accurate depiction of the bond return than the actual bond yield. In its simplest form, bond yields can be calculated by dividing the coupon payment by the market price of the bond.

However, more intricate calculations of bond yields include time value of money and compounding interest payments.

How do calculate the bond yield?

When an investor buys a bond, the issuer pays the investor equal amounts at regular intervals. At the date of maturity, the issuer pays the buyer the face value which is equal to the value at which the bond was initially bought.

Throughout the duration of the bond, the market price of the bond keeps changing, as it is traded in the market. The bond yield is calculated with the formula:

                                                                       

Consider a bond priced at $500, with coupon payments of $50 paid every year. Therefore, the coupon rate, or the bond yield would be 50/500, which is 10%.

Why do bond yields change?

It is important to note that if the buyer sells the bond in the market, it will not sell for its original face value of $500 as the market price changes constantly. Thus, the bond can either be underpriced in the market or overpriced. If the bond sells for less than its face value, then it is at a discount and when it sells for more than its face value then it is selling at a premium.

The coupon amount offered to the buyer does not change. However, the discount and premium change the value of the yield offered to the bond holder.

What are the factors affecting bond yields?

Prices and interest rates affect the bond yields. When the prices of a bond go up the yield decreases and vice versa. Thus, prices and yields have an inverse relationship. To keep coupon payments same, bond prices must adjust accordingly.

The interest rates also affect how yields move. Consider a bond offering a yield of 5%, with a coupon payment of $100 paid annually with a 5-year maturity period. Now suppose the interest rates increase to 6%, any investor looking to buy the bond at par would be willing to receive a yield consistent with the market, i.e., 6%.

However, in the current bond, the yield is fixed at 5%, so it is not possible to bring the yield at par for the new buyer. Therefore, the only way to sell the bond with a lower yield is to price it lower. Thus, as yields rise in the market, the price is lowered. The new price of the bond can be calculated via bond valuation.

On the contrary, if the interest rates had fallen in the market, the investor would be happy to buy the bond at the current price. The current investor is aware that the existing bond is priced lower for the yield it would offer however the existing bondholder would not want to sell it at a discount.

Thus, the existing bondholder would price the bond higher to not make a loss.

How are bond yields different from interest rates?

Interest rates and bond yields are two terms used interchangeably. However, both are different. Interest rates and yields can sometimes move in opposite directions. Yields may sometimes be interpreted as the interest rates of bonds, however that is not an exact explanation of the term.

Interest rates are dependent on the market scenario. Thus, the interest rate charged on a deposit affects the interest amount received by the deposit holder. However, if the yields go up, the bond holder does not receive an increased coupon payment.

What is meant by yield to maturity?

Yield to maturity refers to the yield that investors examine before buying a bond. Yield to maturity considers the following factors:

  • Price: The higher the price of a bond the lower is its yield.
  • Coupon rate: The higher the coupon rate, the higher is its yield. This happens because the bond pays a higher percentage of its face value in the form of payments.
  • Time to maturity: The time remaining till maturity helps in finding out the compound interest one can earn on a bond upon reinvestment.
  • The difference between face value and price: If the bondholder does not sell the bond then he would receive the face value back upon maturity. However, the face value may not always be the same as the price paid for the bond. This difference is captured by yield to maturity.

Yield to maturity has some variations, depending on the bonds that have embedded options. For instance, yield to call assumes that the bond will be called. This means that the bond is repurchased by the issuer before maturity. YTC is calculated with the assumption that the bond will be called as soon as possible.

Alternatively, yield to put is the same as YTC, with the only difference being that the holder can choose the price at which it wants to sell the bond. YTP is calculated on the assumption that it would be put back to the issuer as soon as possible.

Another variation includes yield to worst, which is calculated when a bond has multiple options. Any bond with both put and call provisions would use YTW based on the option terms that offer the lowest yield.

How do yields affect the economy?

Higher bond yields are not taken as a good indication of the economic state. Rising bond yield raises the cost of capital for companies which ends up affecting their stock valuations. This means that stock markets are adversely affected due to rising yields.

Central banks may reduce liquidity support in case bond yields continue to rise. The government would conduct monetary contraction as it would become difficult to repay government debt as rates increase. Thus, if yields increase continually then it is often taken as an alarming signal and can hamper stock markets and be a sign of rising inflation in the future.

In the recent past, the absolute return approach of Investing has turned out to be one of the fastest-growing investment strategies worldwide. A lot of financial advisors talk about such investments providing absolute returns. So, what exactly are the “Absolute Returns” and are they are promising? What is meant by Absolute return? Absolute return computes the increase or decrease, in an asset over a period of time, as a proportion of the original investment amount. The focus here is only on that specific asset or portfolio and not related market events. Absolute returns only consider the price movement for any specified time period. Absolute return, reckons an investment’s performance without considering the expanse of time for which investment was committed. Absolute returns can be computed for a quarter, semi- annual, annual period, 3-year duration or more. Absolute Returns are independent of Market movements and thus do not draw relative comparisons. It is one of the most commonly used investment performance metric in Hedge Funds and Mutual Funds. How to compute Absolute return? Suppose an investor Mr. Rich, invested AUD 50,000 5 years back, and the current value of his investment is AUD 75,000. The Absolute return on Mr. Rich’s investment would be 50 %, calculated using- Copyright © 2021 Kalkine Media Pty Ltd Copyright © 2021 Kalkine Media Pty Ltd So, Copyright © 2021 Kalkine Media Pty Ltd Absolute returns are just returns from point of time to other. The notion of an 'absolute return' seems very attractive to get investors’ attention as it ignores the relative market movement and promises an appreciation with zero correlation to markets. Anyhow, Absolute Return technique of computing investment yields is an apt way of calculating return on investment, predominantly in the early stages. There are numerous other types of return metrics an investor can look for later on. Major 4 types mattering most to investors being –  Absolute Return, Relative Return, Total Return & CAGR. What is the difference between Absolute Return, Relative Return, Total Return & CAGR? Absolute return refers to the gain/ loss in a single investment asset/ portfolio but to comprehend how their investments are acting relative to various market yardsticks, relative return is taken into consideration.   Relative return is the excess or deficit an asset achieves over a timeframe matched to a market index. Benchmark Return – Absolute return, gives the Relative return also called sometimes as alpha. Example, if S&P index gives a 10% return during a given period and one’s investment portfolio gives an absolute return of 12% then relative return on investment is positive/ excess 2%. Total returns take into account the effect of intermittent incomes as well as dividends. For example, in an equity investment of AUD 200 having current value AUD 240, the company also declares a dividend of AUD 10 during the year. Total returns will take into account this $10 dividend too. Thus, Total returns on the investment of AUD 200 now will be 25.00% = {(240+10-200)/200} x 100 Absolute and Total returns are easy to calculate as performance metrics, but the real challenge is when comparisons are drawn based on time period of return. Here comes in CAGR, it takes into account the term of the investment too, thus giving a more correct and comparable picture. It is computed as: CAGR (%) = Absolute Return / Investment period (equated in years) Consider for example, two investment options: One where investor earns absolute returns of 10% in 24 months and another where investor earns 5% absolute returns in 9-month duration. So, CAGR would be- For option one: CAGR = 5.00% i.e.  10%/2 (24 months/12 months is equals to 2 years) For option two: CAGR = 6.66% i.e. 5%/0.75 (9 months/12 months is equals to 0.75 years) What’s wrong with just measuring investment performance using Absolute Returns? Absolute returns will only tell an investor how much his/her investments grew by; they do not tell anything about the speed at which investments grew. When people talk about their real estate investments and say, “I bought that house for X in the year 2004. It’s worth 4X today! It has quadrupled in 17 years.” This is an application of absolute return. The drawback here is that it takes into account only the capital appreciation and doesn’t draw comparison with options having different time horizons. Investors can rely on this measure of investment performance only if they are looking for higher returns, without bothering how fast they were generated. Absolute return also doesn’t convey much about an investment compared to relative markets. Then, why do Hedge Fund/ Mutual Fund Managers choose an Investment strategy based on Absolute returns? Absolute returns should be used at times when investors are willing to shoulder some risk in exchange for a prospective to earn excess returns. This is irrespective of the timeframe and Fund administrators who measure portfolio performance in relation of an absolute return typically aim to develop a portfolio that is spread across asset categories, topography, and economic phases. They are looking for below mentioned points in their portfolios- Positive returns- An absolute returns approach of investment targets at producing positive returns at all costs, irrespective of the upside & downside market movements. Independent of yardsticks- The returns are in absolute terms and not in comparison to a benchmark yield or a market index. Diversification of portfolio- With the intention of distribution of risk, among different investment options producing positive returns in diverse ways a mixed bag of absolute return assets give a diversified investment portfolio. Less volatility- The total risk of investment is spread across the different asset held in such a portfolio. Ensuring less overall volatility in collective returns. Actively adjustable to market movements– Usually, investments look for positive returns with zero market correlation. Market shares a negative correlation with absolute return investments and vice versa. In any investment atmosphere, there are varied investment strategies and goals. Absolute return investment strategies are looking to avoid systemic risks using unconventional assets and derivatives, short selling, arbitrage and leverage. It is appropriate for investors who are prepared to bear risk for short and long-term gains.

Darvas Box system Every great trader/investor in the history of the markets had a specific method to approach the markets, which eventually led them to create a good fortune, Darvas Box system is one such method. It is a trend following strategy developed by Nicholas Darvas in the 1950s to identify stocks for good upside potential. This is one of the few methods to trade the markets which uses the combination of both the technical analysis and fundamental analysis for a much more refined decision.  The fundamentals were used to identify the stocks, and technical analysis was used to time the entry and exits. Who was Nicholas Darvas? Nicholas Darvas was arguably one of the greatest stock traders/investors during 1950s – 1960s, but surprisingly he was a ball dancer by profession and not a professional stock trader. Even while trading and building his fortune, he was on a world tour for his performances in many countries and took up trading as a part-time job. In November 1952 he was invited to a Toronto Nightclub for which he received an unusual proposition of getting paid in shares by the club owners. At that time, all he knew was there is something called stocks which moves up and down in value, that’s it. He accepted the offer and received 6k shares of a Canadian mining company Brilund at 60 cents per share, with the condition that if the stock falls below this price within six months, then the owners would make up the difference. This was the introduction of a professional ball dancer to the stock market. Nicholas Darvas couldn’t perform at the club, so he bought those shares as a gesture. Within two months, Brilund touched $1.9, and his initial investment of $3000 turned to $11400, netting in almost three times of his investment. This triggered a curiosity into the stock markets, and he started to explore trading. Origin of the Darvas Box theory Initially, he was trading on his broker’s recommendation, tips from wealthy businessmen, he even approached some advisory services or any source that he could get his hands on for the tips, but all led him to losses. After losing a lot of money, he decided to develop his own theory, and after a lot of trial and error, his observations and continuous refinements he eventually invented his theory “The Box Theory”. So what exactly is the Box Theory? Fundamentals Analysis As stated earlier, the box theory uses a judicious bend of both the technical and fundamentals. Darvas believed that in order to spot a good stock or even a multibagger, there should be something brewing up in the respective sector as a whole or some major fundamental change in that specific company. Generally, the fundamentals that Darvas used to study were on a broader sector level, and not the company-specific fundamentals. Even for the specific company Darvas used to look from a general perspective like, is the company launching a new product which could be a blockbuster hit. He completely refrained from looking at numbers and financial statements as his initial experiment with ratios and financial statements didn’t yield any good result. To know more on the three financial statements read: Income Statement (P&L) Balance Sheet Cash Flow Statement Technical Analysis Darvas was a big believer in price action and volume of the stock. He believed if some major fundamental changes were to take place in a company, this soon shows up in the stock price and its volume of trading as more people get interested in buying or selling the stock. With his observations here realized by just observing the price action, he can participate in the rally which gets triggered by some major fundamental development without actually knowing about the change. Using the box theory, Darvas used to scan stocks based on rising volume as he needed mass participation in the rally. Also, he only picked up those stocks that were already rising. His theory is all about “buy high, sell higher” instead of the conventional belief of “buy low, sell high”. After the stock satisfies both the parameters of increasing price and volume with major underlying fundamental change, Darvas looks to enter the stock. Good read on momentum trading. How and where to enter? Major part of the box theory is based on entry and exit levels. To enter a stock, Darvas looked for a consolidation phase preceded by a rally. A consolidation phase is the price action wherein the price moves up and down in a tight range, that is, a non-directional move. He would then mark the high and low of the consolidation phase with the horizontal line, essentially making it a box-like structure, hence the name “Box Theory”. The high point is called the ceiling, and low is called the floor. Whenever the stocks break above the ceiling, Darvas would look to buy one tick above the ceiling with one tick below floor as a stop-loss point. Pyramiding Darvas discovered early on, in order to become successful in the market your winning bets should yield much more profit than the loss in the losing bets. This led him to do pyramiding in his winning trade, which is clearly defined in the box theory. Pyramiding means to increase the existing position if the stock is going in the favour, which leads to a much higher profit in the winning trades. According to the box theory, the repetition of the entry criterion is the new signal for adding onto the existing position. In other words, after a position, if the stocks stage the same setup, that is, a consolidation after a rally, then the break above the ceiling of this new box would signal to increase position with the revised stop loss of 1 tick below the new floor. In any case, whenever the stock falls below the current floor, the entire position would we sold off at once. This is the only exit condition in the box theory, and there is no method of booking profit upfront as Darvas believed in holding on to a rising stock. The only way to book profit is to let the stock to take out the revised stop loss.

What is Day Trading? Day trading is popular among a section of market participants. It is a type of speculation wherein trades are squared-off before the market close in the same day. An individual or a group is engaged in buying and selling of securities for a short period for profits, the trades could be active for seconds, minutes or hours.  One can engage in day trading of many securities in the market. Anyone who has sufficient capital to fund the purchase can engage in day trading. For a class of people, day trading is a full-time job.  Day traders are agnostic to the long-term implications of the security and motive is to benefit from the price changes on either side and make profit out of the asset price fluctuations within a day. They bet on price movements of the security and are not averse to take short positions to benefit from the fall in price.  Day trading is not only popular among individuals or retail traders but institutional traders as well, therefore the price movements are large sometimes depending on the magnitude of information flow and accessibility.  Everyone wants to make money faster, and many are inclined to speculate in markets, but it comes with considerable risk and potential loss of capital. People engaged in day trading also incur losses, and oftentimes outcomes are disheartening.  Day trading is a risky activity, similar to sports betting and gambling, and it could become addictive just like gambling and sports betting. Since the motive is to earn profits, the profits realised from day trading also tempt people to continue speculating.  People spend considerable time and efforts to make the most out of day trading. They have to continuously absorb and incorporate information flow, which has become increasingly accessible driven by new-age communications systems like Twitter, Facebook, forums etc. But not only information flows have been favourable, day traders are now equipped with best in class infrastructure to execute trades even on compact devices like mobile phones. The accessibility to markets is at a paramount level and gone are days of phone call trading and lack of information flows.  What are the essentials for Day Trading? Basic knowledge of markets With lack of basic knowledge of markets, day trading may yield unacceptable outcomes. It becomes imperative for people to know what’s on the stake. Prospective day traders should know about capital markets, and the securities traded in capital markets like bonds, equity and derivatives.  Buying shares and expecting a return from the price movements are on the to-do list for many. However, it is important to know about and risks and potential returns from speculating in capital markets.  After getting some basic knowledge about markets and securities, aspiring day traders should know how to analyse market prices of securities through fundamental analysis and technical analysis. Although day traders don’t practice fundamental analysis extensively, they spend considerable time to apply technical analysis, to formulate a entry and exit strategy.   Device and internet connection Trading is now possible on mobile applications as well as computer applications or websites. An aspiring day trader will likely begin with mobile phone given the accessibility, and laptops/computers are useful as scale grows larger and complex.  Internet connection is prerequisite to practising day trading, and it is favourable to have a fast internet connection to avoid glitches and potential problems. These perquisites are now available with large sections of societies.  Broker and trading platform A broker will facilitate a market for potential trades. The security brokerage industry has also seen a profound shift as technology has driven cost lower while competition is ramping up across jurisdictions. Large retail brokerages have moved towards zero commission trading in the U.S., and the same is seen being the trend across other geographies as well.  The entry of discount and online brokerages has perhaps given wings to the retail market participants as well as the retail market for security brokers. Robinhood has grown immensely popular in the United States, but there are many firms like Robinhood in other jurisdictions. Each country has some firms with business model on same lines as Robinhood.  Brokers now offer high-quality mobile applications and web services to clients, and trading security has never been so accessible. They also provide access to the global market along with a range of securities, including commodity derivatives, currency derivatives, CFDs, options, futures, bond futures etc.  Real-time market information flow   On public sources, market price information is at times not live due technical shortcomings, which will not work appropriately, especially for day traders. Brokers not only provide platform and market but several other services, including margin lending, real-time data, research.  Day traders closely track prices of securities and overall information flow to incorporate developments in bidding, and real-time data provides accurate prices throughout market hours.  Information flow largely relates to the news around the company, industry or economy. Day traders now have far better sources of information than the conventional sources, and sometimes these sources could be exclusive to a group.  What are the risks of day trading? Most of the aspiring day traders end up losing money, given the lack of experience and knowledge. They should rather only bet on capital that they are comfortable to loose, in short, they should avoid risk of ruin. Day trading is sort of pure-play speculation and application of knowledge, information flow, laced with good trading system is paramount. The only concern of day traders is movement in price, which contradicts from investments. Day traders try to time and ride the momentum in the price and exit the trade before momentum turns otherwise, which can happen frequently.  It consumes considerable time and induces stress on the individuals given the nature of security prices, which can move north and south abruptly throughout the day, hours, minutes and seconds. Day traders should have enough capital to trade in cash instead of margin.  Day trading on margin or borrowed money is extremely risky and has the potential to make a person insolvent, especially in cases of extreme risk-taking. The leverage associated with borrowed money magnifies profits as well as losses.  Aspiring day traders should equip themselves with adequate knowledge, competency and sound risk management process. Although fast money is dear to most, it is better to know what is at stake before jumping into markets with excitement.   

What is Earnings Per Share? EPS is the per share profit by a business in a given period. While analysing a business financially, it serves as one of the basic tools. EPS is calculated by dividing profits by total shares outstanding for a given period. EPS is reported on the profit and loss statement of an enterprise and works as a denominator for beloved price-to-earnings ratio (P/E ratio), used not just by novice investors but also fund managers. A business is required to generate sustainable earnings in its life cycle, and earnings or profits are essentially among major intend of a promotor. To know more about P/E ratio read: Understanding Price-Earnings Ratio But reported earnings of a business will likely differ from actual cash earnings because devising profits mandate broader accounting standards and principles to provide a fair picture of an enterprise. EPS, therefore, becomes imperative for investors, market participants and other users of information. EPS estimates are circulated by sell-side analysts to market participants. Financial Modelling is applied to arrive at the EPS estimates of future financial years, semi-annual periods or quarterly, depending on the reporting adopted by the firm. Analyst estimates are then collected by market data providers like Reuters, Bloomberg, IRESS to provide a consensus view of analysts on the business and its financials, including revenue, operating expense, earnings before interest and tax, profit after tax, EPS. Market estimates enable participants to evaluate the expectations of sell-side analysts from a particular company, sector or even index. Analyst estimates also indicate the divergence between an individual’s expectations and collective expectations of analysts that are tracking the company. An individual can, therefore, determine whether the stock of the company is undervalued or overpriced by the market against hi one’s fair value estimates that are based on the expectations from the company. More on EPS read: What Do We Mean By Earnings Per Share (EPS)? How to calculate EPS? Although general formula considers total shares outstanding in the denominator, it is preferred to use weighted average shares outstanding over a period because companies issue new shares, buyback or cancel shares. Net Income is the profit reported by a business after incurring income tax. It is also called as Net Profit After Tax. Dividends on Preferred Shares are paid to preferential shareholders because they have first right over the income of a business, but preferred shares don’t have voting rights like common shareholders or ordinary shareholders. Weighted Average Shares Outstanding is calculated after incorporating changes in number of shares during a period, and using weighted average shares outstanding provides a fair financial position of a company. Basic V/S Diluted EPS Diluted EPS is calculated after adding the weighted average number of shares that would be issued after the conversion of dilutive shares to weighted average shares outstanding. Dilutions can include share rights, performance rights, convertible bonds etc. Whereas Basic EPS is calculated by taking weighted average shares outstanding that incorporate changes to number of shares outstanding such as buyback, new issues etc. What is Adjusted-EPS? In a financial period, firms may incur one-time expenses or transactions that are not usual in the normal course of business. The objective of adjusted EPS is to arrive at a fair picture of the business, especially for financial forecasting. Extraordinary items are excluding from EPS to arrive at adjusted EPS figure. These items can include gain on sale of assets, loss on sale of assets, merger costs, capital raising costs, integration expenses etc. What is Normalised EPS? Normalised EPS is calculated to arrive at an EPS figure, which embeds the fluctuations in income due to business cycles or industry cycles. It also includes adjustments made for calculation of adjusted EPS such as one-time gains or losses. Normalised EPS is a useful measure for companies that are sensitive to economic cycles or changes in the business environment. By smoothening out the fluctuations, it provides a fair picture of the business. If a company has reported high normalised earnings over periods, it is considered that the company is less sensitive to changes in business cycles because of its stable revenues and income during the periods. EPS and Price-to-earnings ratio Calculation of price-to-earnings ratio requires EPS as denominator and price of the stock as numerator. EPS therefore becomes a very important financial metric for investors. EPS and price data also allows participants to compare the historical trends of the P/E ratio with the current market scenario and P/E ratio of the stock. How can increase grow EPS? Businesses can increase EPS by focusing on increasing their revenue, by improving operational efficiencies either by deploying technology to reduce cost, or negotiate better prices with vendors, operate in tax efficient manner, etc. Businesses can also improve EPS by undertaking corporate action such as buying back of shares. Read: Pros and cons of buybacks – Story of 5 Popular Stocks including Aurizon Good read: Every Doubt You Have On Earnings Per Share- Explained Right Here!

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