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Highlights
- Global power shifts are accelerating under Trump-era economic strategy
- Structural changes are reshaping market dynamics and risk profiles
- Key sectors like AI, defense, and critical minerals poised for growth
A quiet revolution is unfolding in global markets. The Trump administration’s bold plans—most notably the “Mar-a-Lago Accord”—signal sweeping changes to global trade, monetary policy, and geopolitical strategy. While many investors appear unfazed, experts warn this complacency could prove costly.
Matt King, former strategist and now head of Satori Insights, believes markets are underestimating Trump’s intent. The push to devalue the US dollar and rework trade deals through tariffs should have sparked a greater reaction, particularly in risk assets and debt markets. The absence of such a reaction suggests many believe Trump is bluffing. But as policies harden, it’s becoming clear that structural changes are no longer hypothetical—they’re here.
Macquarie’s Viktor Shvets now sees clear echoes of the 1930s: rising populism, geopolitical volatility, and the decline of traditional democracies. He points to a global shift from liberal democracies to "anocracies"—systems stripped of democratic meaning. Today, only about 30 full democracies remain, while nearly 70% of the global population lives under autocratic regimes.
One major implication is a far more intrusive government role across economies. From capital flows to industrial mandates, the state is stepping in with unprecedented force. Meanwhile, globalisation is unraveling. Protectionism, localization, and self-sufficiency are back in fashion—reshaping trade and investment strategies alike.
PGIM’s macroeconomist Shehriyar Antia echoes these concerns. He argues we are witnessing the dismantling of long-held economic orthodoxies. Around 25% of global trade—especially in high-end tech, critical minerals, and military applications—is now facing major geopolitical disruption.
Within this shift lie opportunities. Companies at the forefront of AI and defense could benefit. Chipmaker (NYSE:TSM) and EV leaders like (HKG:1211) and (NASDAQ:TSLA) are well positioned. Copper producers such as (TSX:IVN), (TSX:ERO), (NYSE:SCCO), and (NYSE:FCX) may gain from increased demand for electrification materials. Additionally, real estate near the US-Mexico border could surge in value amid manufacturing reshoring.
Geographically, resource-rich nations like Australia may profit—if they manage to stay neutral amid US-China tensions. Meanwhile, India, Vietnam, Thailand, and Mexico could rise as manufacturing alternatives.
The investing landscape is being redrawn. Traditional playbooks that depend on stable democracies, free trade, and predictable central bank policy may underperform. Instead, themes of localisation, defense, and technological disruption could take the lead in this new global order.
