AUS
NZ
UK
CA
USA
FRA
GER
ESP
ITA
NLD
PRT
SWE
GRC
IND
POL
BRA
ZAF
RUS
CHN
UAE
The Bitcoin futures premium has reached its lowest point in ten months, yet traders have maintained a cautious optimism despite recent market turbulence. Between August 25 and August 27, Bitcoin’s price dropped by 10.8% after briefly surpassing $65,000, a decline attributed to concerns about a U.S. recession and overconfidence in the stock market, as noted by Goldman Sachs’ head of asset allocation in an August 28 CNBC interview.
{Bitcoin} (BTC) managed to hold above the $58,500 support level, but the primary indicator of appetite for leveraged long positions fell to its lowest level in ten months. As of August 28, this gauge shifted to a neutral stance. Traders suggest that regaining bullish sentiment may take additional time, leading to further price adjustments.
Goldman Sachs’ Christian Mueller-Glissmann warned that the global market downturn on August 5, triggered by Japan’s central bank policy change, should be seen as a cautionary signal. He noted that there is still considerable optimism despite mixed macroeconomic signals, which could contribute to ongoing volatility.
A 10% price fluctuation over two days is not unusual for Bitcoin, and recent historical data indicates that BTC volatility has been rising, resulting in more frequent sharp movements. Bitcoin’s annualized volatility exceeded 65% earlier in August, compared to a range of 24% to 52% in the preceding months. In comparison, the S&P 500 index volatility peaked at 27% in mid-August, its highest level since December 2022. However, cryptocurrency traders often exhibit heightened optimism and reliance on leveraged positions.
In the Bitcoin futures market, the premium for monthly contracts briefly fell below the 5% annualized level on August 27, indicating a bearish sentiment. The premium has since recovered to a healthier 6% level following the support at $58,500. Despite this, the total Bitcoin futures open interest has decreased by 4% since August 26, now standing at 517,430 BTC. Forced liquidations during this period amounted to $102 million, a relatively modest figure compared to the $311 million in liquidations observed during the August 5 crash.
The demand for stablecoins, particularly USD Tether (USDT) in China, has remained neutral, with premiums hovering close to 0%. This suggests a lack of strong renewed demand in the region. Overall, Bitcoin traders appear to be adjusting their positions cautiously, reflecting a measured response to recent market developments.
