Terms Beginning With 'u'

Ulcer Index (UI)

  • January 07, 2020
  • Team Kalkine

This index measures the risk around depth and duration of decline in prices. The value of this index increases when the price declines from a recent high and decreases as the price increases to new value of high.

Dead Cat Bounce Dead Cat bounce is a colloquial phrase which is quite popular in the financial markets. The term was coined a long time ago and generally referred to the peculiar behaviour of the price. The phrase denotes a recovery in the asset’s price, often a sharp one after a prolonged downtrend. Sometimes it is also referred to a short but sharp fall, succeeded by an equally sharp recovery. How does a downtrend continue for a long time? Quite often, some securities in the financial markets depict a very long downtrend which may last from a few months to a few years depending on the severity of the fundamental headwinds. These prolonged downtrends are so strong that no support levels can withhold the downtrend and the prices keep on falling. Every support level gets taken out by excessive selling, which pushes the prices even lower. These lower prices force the long holders to liquidate their positions as no visible halt in the downtrend is noticed. This liquidation from existing buyers further fuels the selling, leading to the continuation of the downtrend. As the price keeps on falling, the buyers do not get enough confidence to buy and consequently keep getting overpowered by selling pressure continues the downtrend. So what is the ideology behind “Dead Cat Bounce”? In due course of a downtrend, the security tends to become oversold for the time being. Oversold is a technical term is used for security which seems to have fallen quite a bit in a specified period. In other words, a security that has been continually sold in a specified period tends to reach a level wherein the sellers are no more interested in selling at further lower rates. This is where the buyers’ step in and try to buy these stocks at low prices, leading to an increase in demand over the supply. This fresh buying tends to push the price up hence resulting in a short upside movement or, in technical parlance a “Bounce”. This point is where the downtrend witnesses a temporary upside momentum which is exactly quoted as a “Dead Cat Bounce”. The ideology is “Even a dead cat will bounce if fallen from a great height.” Likewise, a short bounce is quite expected after a prolonged downtrend which does not change the trend as a bounce does not mean the cat has become alive. Image Source ©Kalkine Group Does it signify a reversal from a downtrend? A Dead Cat bounce is an upside momentum, witnessed after a prolonged downward trend, generally near the oversold price region. But it is to be noted that this price bounce is merely a reaction of the downtrend which is often witnessed in the oversold areas. This does not change the entire trend, and more often than not, the trend continues in the primary direction after the bounce fizzles out.  Why is it difficult to trade a Dead Cat Bounce? Most of the time it is difficult to trade a move like a Dead Cat Bounce as the bounce is often very quick and short-lived. The overall trend remains negative, which is in contradictory to the short-term bounce. Also, few investors mistake it for the trend change, which often proves to be a mistake.  It generally becomes difficult to estimate some key support areas from where the bounce may occur as the downtrend is quite strong and lacks demand to support the price. However, there are some momentum indicators like RSI (Relative Strength Index), Stochastics oscillator etc. which may help to gauge oversold zones from where the bounce may occur. What are the reasons for a Dead Cat Bounce? There could be many reasons for a Dead Cat Bounce to occur on the charts as the sudden demand may come due to numerous reasons. Some of the reasons are Oversold Price As discussed, due to a prolonged downtrend and continued selling the price often comes to a level wherein the sellers are no more interested in selling at these lower prices and at the same time buyers often find a value proposition. This leads to a spike in demand, which ultimately results in a Dead Cat Bounce. Strong support area There are some levels of support on the price chart that are quite prominent. In other words, there are some regions of support which are quite strong and may remain relevant for years. These support levels are generally hard to break at the first attempt, which results in a bounce or a complete reversal.  How to profit from a Dead Cat Bounce There are two different strategies when it comes to trading these kinds of sharp and against the trend moves. They are contradictory to each other, but both are based on proven price behaviour. Short Selling the rally As the primary trend of the underlying is still downward, one thought arises to go short on the bounce. This strategy one to participate in the downtrend but with a much better price. If these rallies are met with a resistance level like a falling trendline, horizontal price resistance etc. then these areas are ideal to sell the bounce in a downtrend.  Buying into the rally Another opinion arises, why not to participate in the bounce? This strategy can also be fruitful provided the bounce should be stronger and last for a while, which is not always the case. This essentially calls for a very quick decision making while capitalising on the temporary bounce.  Bottomline A Dead Cat Bounce is a prolonged downtrend followed by a short-term bounce. These bounces generally don’t last long, and once they fade, the trend continues towards the south. However, sometimes a bounce may also act as a reversal, but for the added confirmation a trader should also look at other signals of a reversal like bullish divergence at the bottom or a double bottom chart pattern.

The EAFE index-maintained by MSCI is a market-capitalisation weighted market performance index, which tracks the performance of the stock market across the developed markets outside the United States and Canada.

What is Earnings Per Share? EPS is the per share profit by a business in a given period. While analysing a business financially, it serves as one of the basic tools. EPS is calculated by dividing profits by total shares outstanding for a given period. EPS is reported on the profit and loss statement of an enterprise and works as a denominator for beloved price-to-earnings ratio (P/E ratio), used not just by novice investors but also fund managers. A business is required to generate sustainable earnings in its life cycle, and earnings or profits are essentially among major intend of a promotor. To know more about P/E ratio read: Understanding Price-Earnings Ratio But reported earnings of a business will likely differ from actual cash earnings because devising profits mandate broader accounting standards and principles to provide a fair picture of an enterprise. EPS, therefore, becomes imperative for investors, market participants and other users of information. EPS estimates are circulated by sell-side analysts to market participants. Financial Modelling is applied to arrive at the EPS estimates of future financial years, semi-annual periods or quarterly, depending on the reporting adopted by the firm. Analyst estimates are then collected by market data providers like Reuters, Bloomberg, IRESS to provide a consensus view of analysts on the business and its financials, including revenue, operating expense, earnings before interest and tax, profit after tax, EPS. Market estimates enable participants to evaluate the expectations of sell-side analysts from a particular company, sector or even index. Analyst estimates also indicate the divergence between an individual’s expectations and collective expectations of analysts that are tracking the company. An individual can, therefore, determine whether the stock of the company is undervalued or overpriced by the market against hi one’s fair value estimates that are based on the expectations from the company. More on EPS read: What Do We Mean By Earnings Per Share (EPS)? How to calculate EPS? Although general formula considers total shares outstanding in the denominator, it is preferred to use weighted average shares outstanding over a period because companies issue new shares, buyback or cancel shares. Net Income is the profit reported by a business after incurring income tax. It is also called as Net Profit After Tax. Dividends on Preferred Shares are paid to preferential shareholders because they have first right over the income of a business, but preferred shares don’t have voting rights like common shareholders or ordinary shareholders. Weighted Average Shares Outstanding is calculated after incorporating changes in number of shares during a period, and using weighted average shares outstanding provides a fair financial position of a company. Basic V/S Diluted EPS Diluted EPS is calculated after adding the weighted average number of shares that would be issued after the conversion of dilutive shares to weighted average shares outstanding. Dilutions can include share rights, performance rights, convertible bonds etc. Whereas Basic EPS is calculated by taking weighted average shares outstanding that incorporate changes to number of shares outstanding such as buyback, new issues etc. What is Adjusted-EPS? In a financial period, firms may incur one-time expenses or transactions that are not usual in the normal course of business. The objective of adjusted EPS is to arrive at a fair picture of the business, especially for financial forecasting. Extraordinary items are excluding from EPS to arrive at adjusted EPS figure. These items can include gain on sale of assets, loss on sale of assets, merger costs, capital raising costs, integration expenses etc. What is Normalised EPS? Normalised EPS is calculated to arrive at an EPS figure, which embeds the fluctuations in income due to business cycles or industry cycles. It also includes adjustments made for calculation of adjusted EPS such as one-time gains or losses. Normalised EPS is a useful measure for companies that are sensitive to economic cycles or changes in the business environment. By smoothening out the fluctuations, it provides a fair picture of the business. If a company has reported high normalised earnings over periods, it is considered that the company is less sensitive to changes in business cycles because of its stable revenues and income during the periods. EPS and Price-to-earnings ratio Calculation of price-to-earnings ratio requires EPS as denominator and price of the stock as numerator. EPS therefore becomes a very important financial metric for investors. EPS and price data also allows participants to compare the historical trends of the P/E ratio with the current market scenario and P/E ratio of the stock. How can increase grow EPS? Businesses can increase EPS by focusing on increasing their revenue, by improving operational efficiencies either by deploying technology to reduce cost, or negotiate better prices with vendors, operate in tax efficient manner, etc. Businesses can also improve EPS by undertaking corporate action such as buying back of shares. Read: Pros and cons of buybacks – Story of 5 Popular Stocks including Aurizon Good read: Every Doubt You Have On Earnings Per Share- Explained Right Here!

What are ETFs? ETFs are similar to funds where pooled money of investors is managed by a fund manager, who runs the ETF. These funds invest in equity, debt, commodity or any other asset class, depending on its offering. Good read: Mastering the Basics of Investing in ETFs Price of the ETF is based on a value of net assets in the fund and is subject to change each trading day consistent with underlying changes in the value of net assets. Since ETFs are traded in markets just like shares, the quoted price of an ETF either reflects a discount to its NAV or a premium to its NAV. Investors have flocked to ETFs because of low-cost proposition and opportunity to take exposure in a specific pool of assets, which are professionally managed by an investment team with the investment manager. Some ETFs are also used as a proxy to define sentiment in an underlying sector, commodity or index since ETFs are actively traded in market hours, incorporating the latest information in prices. Fund management businesses have continued launching new and innovative ETFs, which have seen great demand over the past.    Read: Gold ETFs register massive capital influx; while PDI, GPP, ERM, AME, RED Under Investors’ Lens Large and popular ETFs have also defied liquidity problems because of large scale investor participation. But it remains a problem with lesser-known ETFs with small market participation. ETFs also pay distributions to the holders that are either derived through interest income, dividend income or capital gain. Active and Passive ETFs With ETFs markets growing strongly as ever, there remains a divide between active fund managers and passive fund managers. Passive investment strategies have grown immensely popular among market participants over time. This strategy is cost effective. Many seasoned investors such as Warren Buffett, John C Bogle- founder of the Vanguard Group have endorsed passive ETFs. Active ETFs do not track a benchmark, and performance is not tracked to any given index. These funds are based on countries, sectors, market capitalisation, asset classes, etc., and active investment management allows a manager to beat the returns delivered by broader markets or indices. If you look at the great investors like Warren Buffet, Philip Fisher or Peter Lynch, they have set themselves as a preamble for active investors, and their record of delivering sustainable returns over the long term continues to attract investors to active alleys of markets. Since Passive ETFs are designed to match returns of respective benchmarks, there is no scope of delivering outperformance no guarantee that fund will not underperform the benchmark. However, the expenses charged to investors are relatively lower compared to Active ETFs. Passive ETFs are cheaper than Active ETFs because the use of resources is limited in the former. Since they are designed to match the benchmark and its underlying securities, trading in Passive ETFs is mostly automated running on algorithms, and stock picking is not required, thereby no research. Read: ETFs: Investors Up the Ante and ETFs Run the Show for Long-Term Returns ETFs based on asset classes and style Sector ETFs: These are the most common type of ETFs in market. Sector ETFs track specific sectors like Information Technology, Consumer Staples, Consumer Discretionary, Metal & Mining. These are similar to index funds but are actively traded in stock exchanges. Equity ETFs: Equity ETFs may include equity-focused Sector ETFs. As the name suggests equity, these funds invest in stocks independently or are benchmarked to a specific index. Perhaps, Equity ETFs are the most common ETFs. Fixed Income ETFs: These funds invest in fixed income instruments and pay distributions out of the interest earned on bonds. Further Fixed Income ETFs can be separated as investment-grade ETFs, high-yield ETFs, Government bond ETFs. Commodity ETFs: Commodity ETFs invest in physical commodities like precious metal, agricultural goods, natural resource. These funds include products like Gold ETFs, Oil ETFs, Grain ETFs, Silver ETFs. Good read: Investing in Commodity ETFs Short ETFs: Also known as inverse ETFs, these funds are designed to benefit when the benchmark is falling. Short ETFs hold short positions in the benchmark index futures or constituents of the index to benefit from fall in value or prices. To know more about short selling read: Minting Money While the Asset Price Tanks; Enter the World of Short Selling Leveraged ETFs: Leveraged ETFs use derivatives to amplify the returns and risks of a fund. These are also called geared ETFs. Leveraged ETFs may also hold equity or bonds along with the derivatives to amplify the net asset value movement of funds. Do read: All You Need to Know About Exchange Traded Funds Why investors prefer ETFs? Passive investment vehicles continue to appear compelling to a large investor base, and there are numerous reasons driving the demand for passive investment vehicles. Low-cost and no minimum investment: ETFs have lower expenses compared to traditional mutual funds, and most of the funds have no minimum investment criteria. As a result, the market for ETFs has grown strong, due to its reach to investors with limited capital. Must read: Mutual Funds vs. ETFs: Which Are Better? Exposure to specific asset classes: Investors with large portfolio also use ETFs to enter to into specific asset classes like Gold ETF or Commodity ETF, but not limited to sector ETFs, theme-based active ETFs like technology, mobility, e-commerce etc. Portfolio diversification: ETFs provide investors with an opportunity to diversify a portfolio of concentrated stocks by including exposure to specific sectors, indices, and commodities. More importantly, the diversification is available at a low-cost investment, which further drives the need for ETFs in a portfolio. Accessibility: It is perhaps the most compelling value ETFs provide to investors. Since ETFs are available on stock exchanges like shares, investor participation remains strong, and some popular ETFs boast high liquidity levels. Read: Confused on How to Invest in ETFs? We Have Some Tips! Further read: 6 Reasons to look at ETFs    

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