Supply Chain Management (SCM) is a broader term referring to the management of flow or logistics of goods and services right from the purchase of raw materials to the processing and delivery of the finished product to the market. It involves proper planning of the supply side of the business to map the output or product to maximise customer value.
SCM is used to find any overhead cost, ways to improve efficiency and to properly manage the inventory to gain the competitive advantage in the market.
Dead Cat Bounce Dead Cat bounce is a colloquial phrase which is quite popular in the financial markets. The term was coined a long time ago and generally referred to the peculiar behaviour of the price. The phrase denotes a recovery in the asset’s price, often a sharp one after a prolonged downtrend. Sometimes it is also referred to a short but sharp fall, succeeded by an equally sharp recovery. How does a downtrend continue for a long time? Quite often, some securities in the financial markets depict a very long downtrend which may last from a few months to a few years depending on the severity of the fundamental headwinds. These prolonged downtrends are so strong that no support levels can withhold the downtrend and the prices keep on falling. Every support level gets taken out by excessive selling, which pushes the prices even lower. These lower prices force the long holders to liquidate their positions as no visible halt in the downtrend is noticed. This liquidation from existing buyers further fuels the selling, leading to the continuation of the downtrend. As the price keeps on falling, the buyers do not get enough confidence to buy and consequently keep getting overpowered by selling pressure continues the downtrend. So what is the ideology behind “Dead Cat Bounce”? In due course of a downtrend, the security tends to become oversold for the time being. Oversold is a technical term is used for security which seems to have fallen quite a bit in a specified period. In other words, a security that has been continually sold in a specified period tends to reach a level wherein the sellers are no more interested in selling at further lower rates. This is where the buyers’ step in and try to buy these stocks at low prices, leading to an increase in demand over the supply. This fresh buying tends to push the price up hence resulting in a short upside movement or, in technical parlance a “Bounce”. This point is where the downtrend witnesses a temporary upside momentum which is exactly quoted as a “Dead Cat Bounce”. The ideology is “Even a dead cat will bounce if fallen from a great height.” Likewise, a short bounce is quite expected after a prolonged downtrend which does not change the trend as a bounce does not mean the cat has become alive. Image Source ©Kalkine Group Does it signify a reversal from a downtrend? A Dead Cat bounce is an upside momentum, witnessed after a prolonged downward trend, generally near the oversold price region. But it is to be noted that this price bounce is merely a reaction of the downtrend which is often witnessed in the oversold areas. This does not change the entire trend, and more often than not, the trend continues in the primary direction after the bounce fizzles out. Why is it difficult to trade a Dead Cat Bounce? Most of the time it is difficult to trade a move like a Dead Cat Bounce as the bounce is often very quick and short-lived. The overall trend remains negative, which is in contradictory to the short-term bounce. Also, few investors mistake it for the trend change, which often proves to be a mistake. It generally becomes difficult to estimate some key support areas from where the bounce may occur as the downtrend is quite strong and lacks demand to support the price. However, there are some momentum indicators like RSI (Relative Strength Index), Stochastics oscillator etc. which may help to gauge oversold zones from where the bounce may occur. What are the reasons for a Dead Cat Bounce? There could be many reasons for a Dead Cat Bounce to occur on the charts as the sudden demand may come due to numerous reasons. Some of the reasons are Oversold Price As discussed, due to a prolonged downtrend and continued selling the price often comes to a level wherein the sellers are no more interested in selling at these lower prices and at the same time buyers often find a value proposition. This leads to a spike in demand, which ultimately results in a Dead Cat Bounce. Strong support area There are some levels of support on the price chart that are quite prominent. In other words, there are some regions of support which are quite strong and may remain relevant for years. These support levels are generally hard to break at the first attempt, which results in a bounce or a complete reversal. How to profit from a Dead Cat Bounce There are two different strategies when it comes to trading these kinds of sharp and against the trend moves. They are contradictory to each other, but both are based on proven price behaviour. Short Selling the rally As the primary trend of the underlying is still downward, one thought arises to go short on the bounce. This strategy one to participate in the downtrend but with a much better price. If these rallies are met with a resistance level like a falling trendline, horizontal price resistance etc. then these areas are ideal to sell the bounce in a downtrend. Buying into the rally Another opinion arises, why not to participate in the bounce? This strategy can also be fruitful provided the bounce should be stronger and last for a while, which is not always the case. This essentially calls for a very quick decision making while capitalising on the temporary bounce. Bottomline A Dead Cat Bounce is a prolonged downtrend followed by a short-term bounce. These bounces generally don’t last long, and once they fade, the trend continues towards the south. However, sometimes a bounce may also act as a reversal, but for the added confirmation a trader should also look at other signals of a reversal like bullish divergence at the bottom or a double bottom chart pattern.
This is an economic term. It implies a process or product that can eventually yield a couple of or more outputs.
What is Keynesian economics? Keynesian economics is the economic theory that states demand is the driver of economic growth. This economic theory also states that fiscal aid helps recover an economy from a recession. Certain Keynesian economic principles stand in stark contrast to the Classical theory of economics. The theory was given by John Maynard Keynes in the 1930s and published in Keynes’ “General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money” in 1936. The Keynesian theory stated that government spending was an essential factor in increasing demand and maintaining full employment. What are the theories under Keynesian economics? Aggregate demand is affected by a host of factors: Aggregate demand is affected by various factors public and private factors. Monetary and fiscal policy both affect the level of aggregate demand in the economy. Any decision taken by the monetary authority or the government greatly affects the economy’s level of demand. Say’s Law proposes that supply generates its own demand. However, Keynesian economics suggests that demand is the driver of supply and overall growth in the economy. Sticky Wages: According to the theory of sticky wages, employers would prefer laying off workers over decreasing the existing workers’ wages. This happens because even in the absence of labour unions, workers would still resist wages cuts. Even if the employers were to reduce wages, it would lead to economic depression as demand would fall and people would become more cautious about their spending. Keynes advocated that the labour markers do not function independently from the savings market. Therefore, prices and wages respond slowly to changes in supply and demand. Liquidity Trap: Liquidity trap refers to an economic scenario where there is a contraction in the economy despite very low interest rates. This contrasts with the relationship between interest rates and investment given in Classical economics. How is Keynesian economics different from Classical economics? Classical economics states that the economy self-regulates in case of a disequilibrium. Any deviations from the market equilibrium would be adjusted on its own without any government regulation. However, Keynesian economics propagates that government intervention must maintain equilibrium or come out of an economic downturn. Keynesian economics highlights the importance of monetary and fiscal policy, while Classical economics does not mention any government intervention. Another crucial difference is that Classical economics suggests that governments should always incur less debt, while Keynesian economics advises that governments should practice deficit financing during a recession. Classical economics states that government spending can be harmful as it leads to crowding out of the private investment. However, it has been later established that this happens when the economy is not in a recession. Government borrowing competes with private investment leading to higher interest rates. Thus, Keynesian economics is of the view that deficit spending during a recession does not crowd out private investment. What are the policy measures advocated by Keynesian economics? According to Keynes, adopting a countercyclical approach can help economies stabilise. This means that governments must move in a direction opposite to the business cycles. The theory also states that governments should recover from economic downturns in the short run itself, instead of waiting for the economy to recover over time. Keynes wrote the famous line, “In the long run, we are all dead”. The short run knowledge of the economy would be far better than the long run prediction made by any government. Thus, it makes sense for governments to focus on short run policies and maintain short run equilibrium. Keynes’ multiplier effect states that government spending would increase the GDP by a greater amount than the increase in government spending. This multiplier effect established a reason for governments to go for fiscal support when the economy requires it. What have been the criticisms of Keynesian economics? The initial stages of Keynesian economics propagated that monetary policy was ineffective and did not play any role in boosting economic growth. However, the positive effects of monetary policy are well established and have been integrated into the new Keynesian framework. Another criticism is that the advantage of the fiscal benefits to the GDP cannot be measured. Thus, it becomes difficult to fine-tune the fiscal policy to suit the economic scenario better. Also, the Keynesian belief of increased spending leading to economic growth may lead to the government investing in projects with a vested interest. It could also lead to increased corruption in the economy. The theory of rational expectations suggests that people understand that tax cuts are only temporary. Thus, they prefer to save up the income left behind to pay for future increases in taxes. This is the Ricardian Equivalence theory. Thus, fiscal policy may be rendered ineffective due to this. Supply-side economics has also shown contrast to Keynesian beliefs. During the stagflation in the 1970s, the Phillips curve failed, bringing out the importance of supply-side economics.
K-Percent rule deals in monetary policy economics. It is a monetary policy tool under which money supply in an economy should be increased at a constant percentage rate each year, even in recession, recovery or all kind of business cycles.