Substantially Equal Periodic Payment (SEPP) is a term used for the funds, which provides fine free withdrawal of deposits before its plan or before the age.
Generally, a plan with SEPP provides an arrangement in which the funds can be drawn penalty-free in a distributed manner for five years or the holder of account turning 59.5 years, whichever comes later.
In early withdrawal of the plan without SEPP, the account holder is liable to pay a penalty of 10% of the distributed amount. Withdrawal amount remains subject to income tax, whether it is with or without the SEPP plan.
Dead Cat Bounce Dead Cat bounce is a colloquial phrase which is quite popular in the financial markets. The term was coined a long time ago and generally referred to the peculiar behaviour of the price. The phrase denotes a recovery in the asset’s price, often a sharp one after a prolonged downtrend. Sometimes it is also referred to a short but sharp fall, succeeded by an equally sharp recovery. How does a downtrend continue for a long time? Quite often, some securities in the financial markets depict a very long downtrend which may last from a few months to a few years depending on the severity of the fundamental headwinds. These prolonged downtrends are so strong that no support levels can withhold the downtrend and the prices keep on falling. Every support level gets taken out by excessive selling, which pushes the prices even lower. These lower prices force the long holders to liquidate their positions as no visible halt in the downtrend is noticed. This liquidation from existing buyers further fuels the selling, leading to the continuation of the downtrend. As the price keeps on falling, the buyers do not get enough confidence to buy and consequently keep getting overpowered by selling pressure continues the downtrend. So what is the ideology behind “Dead Cat Bounce”? In due course of a downtrend, the security tends to become oversold for the time being. Oversold is a technical term is used for security which seems to have fallen quite a bit in a specified period. In other words, a security that has been continually sold in a specified period tends to reach a level wherein the sellers are no more interested in selling at further lower rates. This is where the buyers’ step in and try to buy these stocks at low prices, leading to an increase in demand over the supply. This fresh buying tends to push the price up hence resulting in a short upside movement or, in technical parlance a “Bounce”. This point is where the downtrend witnesses a temporary upside momentum which is exactly quoted as a “Dead Cat Bounce”. The ideology is “Even a dead cat will bounce if fallen from a great height.” Likewise, a short bounce is quite expected after a prolonged downtrend which does not change the trend as a bounce does not mean the cat has become alive. Image Source ©Kalkine Group Does it signify a reversal from a downtrend? A Dead Cat bounce is an upside momentum, witnessed after a prolonged downward trend, generally near the oversold price region. But it is to be noted that this price bounce is merely a reaction of the downtrend which is often witnessed in the oversold areas. This does not change the entire trend, and more often than not, the trend continues in the primary direction after the bounce fizzles out. Why is it difficult to trade a Dead Cat Bounce? Most of the time it is difficult to trade a move like a Dead Cat Bounce as the bounce is often very quick and short-lived. The overall trend remains negative, which is in contradictory to the short-term bounce. Also, few investors mistake it for the trend change, which often proves to be a mistake. It generally becomes difficult to estimate some key support areas from where the bounce may occur as the downtrend is quite strong and lacks demand to support the price. However, there are some momentum indicators like RSI (Relative Strength Index), Stochastics oscillator etc. which may help to gauge oversold zones from where the bounce may occur. What are the reasons for a Dead Cat Bounce? There could be many reasons for a Dead Cat Bounce to occur on the charts as the sudden demand may come due to numerous reasons. Some of the reasons are Oversold Price As discussed, due to a prolonged downtrend and continued selling the price often comes to a level wherein the sellers are no more interested in selling at these lower prices and at the same time buyers often find a value proposition. This leads to a spike in demand, which ultimately results in a Dead Cat Bounce. Strong support area There are some levels of support on the price chart that are quite prominent. In other words, there are some regions of support which are quite strong and may remain relevant for years. These support levels are generally hard to break at the first attempt, which results in a bounce or a complete reversal. How to profit from a Dead Cat Bounce There are two different strategies when it comes to trading these kinds of sharp and against the trend moves. They are contradictory to each other, but both are based on proven price behaviour. Short Selling the rally As the primary trend of the underlying is still downward, one thought arises to go short on the bounce. This strategy one to participate in the downtrend but with a much better price. If these rallies are met with a resistance level like a falling trendline, horizontal price resistance etc. then these areas are ideal to sell the bounce in a downtrend. Buying into the rally Another opinion arises, why not to participate in the bounce? This strategy can also be fruitful provided the bounce should be stronger and last for a while, which is not always the case. This essentially calls for a very quick decision making while capitalising on the temporary bounce. Bottomline A Dead Cat Bounce is a prolonged downtrend followed by a short-term bounce. These bounces generally don’t last long, and once they fade, the trend continues towards the south. However, sometimes a bounce may also act as a reversal, but for the added confirmation a trader should also look at other signals of a reversal like bullish divergence at the bottom or a double bottom chart pattern.
What is a Market Index? A market index could be defined as a representation of a security market, market segment, or asset class of freely tradable market instruments. A market index is primarily made up of constituent marketable securities and is re-calculated on a daily basis. There are basically two forms or variations of the same market index, i.e., one version based upon the price return known as a price return index, and one version based upon total return know as a total return index. Why Do We Need A market Index? Ideally, a large number of market participants including investors and institutional funds gather and analyse vast amounts of information about security markets; however, doing so could be a very troublesome and tiring task as the work is both time consuming and data-intensive. Thus, a large number of market participants prefer to use a single measure that could represent and consolidate a plethora of information while reflecting the performance of an entire security market of interest. This is where market indexes play a major role as they are often a simple measure to reflect the performance of any underlying market of interest. For example, S&P500, NASDAQ, are believed to reflect the true performance and picture of the U.S. stock market in particular and U.S. economy in general. Likewise, many indexes such as S&P/ASX 200 is believed to reflect the performance of the Australian stock market and so on. Index Construction Constructing a market index is almost similar to constructing a portfolio of securities as the construction of an index requires: Target Market and Security Selection The first and the primary decision in constructing an index is to identify the target market and select financial instruments which reflect the true nature of the underlying market. The target market, which determines the investment universe and securities available for inclusion, could be based on any asset class, i.e., equities, fixed income, commodities, real estates or on any geographic region. Once the target market is identified, the next step is to select securities which represent the true nature of the target market and decide on the number of securities to be included in the index. Ideally, a market index could be of all securities in the target market or a representative sample of the target market. For example, some indexes such as FTSE 100, S&P 500, S&P/ASX 200, fix the number of stocks to be included in the index while indexes like Tokyo Stock Price Index (or TOPIX) select and represents all of the largest stocks, known as the First Selection. For such indexes, the included securities must meet some basic parameters like pre-decided market capitalisation, the number of shares outstanding, to remain in the index. Weight Allocation The weight allocation varies considerably among indexes depending upon the method of weight allocation, and it basically decides on how much weight each security in an index carry. The method of weight allocation is one of the most important parts that investors need to understand thoroughly as it has a substantial impact on the value of an index. Some of the most widely-used weight allocation methods are as below: Price Weighting This method was originally used by Charles Dow to construct the Dow Jones Industrial Average (or DJIA) and is one of the simplest methods. The price weight method determines the weight of each individual security of an index by dividing the price of the security by the sum of prices of all securities. In simple terms, each security gets the weight of its price in proportional to the total price of the index. The primary advantage of this method is its simplicity; however, the method leads to arbitrary weights for each security as the method is highly sensitive to some market actions such as stock split. Equal Weighting As the name suggests, this method assigns equal weight to all securities in an index. Just like equal weighting, the major advantage of this method is its simplicity; however, this method tends to underrepresent the value of large securities and overrepresent the value of smaller securities. Market-Capitalisation Weighting Market-Capitalisation method weight each constituent by dividing its market capitalisation with the total market capitalisation of the index, i.e., the sum of the market capitalisation of each constituent. The market capitalisation could be determined by multiplying the number of outstanding shares of the security with its market price per share. Rebalancing and Reconstitution Rebalancing of a market index could be defined as the adjustment to the weights of the constituent securities. Depending upon the method of weighting an index, the weight of each individual security tends to change due to market actions or price appreciation and deprecation, in similar fashion to a stock portfolio requires scheduled rebalancing. A majority of market indexes are rebalanced on a daily basis as price tends to often change regularly. On the other hand, reconstitution could be ideally defined as the process to change the constituent of a market index. As suggested above, many market indexes such as TOPIX require each constituent security to meet some parameters for the inclusion; however, due to market dynamics, various securities tend to get added or removed from an index time to time. Uses of Market Index Originally, market indexes were created to provide a sense to investors on how a security market performed on a given day. However, with the development of the modern finance theory and growing numbers of indexes in the market, uses of market indexes have been expanded significantly. Some of the major uses of market indexes are as below: To Gauge the market sentiment A market index is usually a collection of the opinion of market participants; thus, they reflect the attitude and behaviour of the market participants, making them one of most widely used tool to gauge the market sentiment. To measure and model the risk and return profile of a market Market indexes could serve as a proxy for systematic risk in many popular models such as the Capital Asset Pricing Model (or CAPM). The market portfolio, which represents the systematic risk of the market often uses a market index, as a proxy of the market portfolio as including the whole population or all stocks in the model could lead to wrong output, and it could be very costly and cost consuming. Serves as a Performance Benchmark Market indexes often serve as a performance benchmark for individual investors and especially large investors such as mutual funds, ETFs, pension funds, and large banks.
What is Game Theory? Game theory is a mathematical statistical analysis of how individuals react to different circumstances presented to them. Each situation comes with a set of payoffs and the individuals must decide which move to play based on these expected playoffs. Since these payoffs are known to the players depending on different moves by all the participants, the entire course of action depends on the strategy chosen by the players. This strategy might be incentivising for one and harmful for the other or can be beneficial to both. Thus, the players must decide whether to collaborate, or to work for their own profits. The concept of game theory has various applications in real life. A game theory set up can help alter an individual’s strategy based on his assumptions about the opponent’s move. Thus, it helps determine a sustainable outcome in a situation where two individuals find themselves at conflict. However, not all game theory set ups can be solved productively as they involve trade-offs between what the players desire. What are the different terms used in game theory analysis? PLAYERS: There are two players in most game theory experiments, and each player is affected by the strategy played by both the players. PAYOFFS: Payoffs refer to the outcomes for each player of the game based on different strategies. A payoff matrix depicts the different situations and the associated outcomes by both the players in a diagram form. STRATEGY: It refers to the course of action adopted by the players depending on the payoff matrix known by them. It can be for personal profit or in collaboration with each other. INFORMATION SET: The players are aware about the possible strategies and the payoffs attached to them. This information forms the information set which is used by the players to choose their moves. What is Nash Equilibrium? Nash equilibrium refers to that outcome in the game in which both players have achieved the best possible solution through a collaboration. This is the state from which neither of the players would want to deviate. This outcome may not always be optimal for both. In certain instances, it might be possible to make one player better off by making the other worse off. What is Pareto Optimality? Pareto Optimality refers to that stage in which both players have reached their best potential. This state considers the individual’s best outcome rather than the collaborative best outcome. Thus, it is that state from which it is not possible to make one player better off without making the other worse off. The outcome for both the players is at its best. A Nash equilibrium may not always be pareto optimal. This means that the outcome which is the collaborative best between both players may not be pareto optimal. Thus, it is possible to deflect from that outcome and make both players reach their personal best. What are the different types of strategies used by the players? The strategies in the game can be of two types: Pure Strategy: This is the strategy which is fully defined for a player and can be thought of as ‘occurring with full probability’. Mixed Strategy: This involves assigning probabilities to pure strategies. This allows players to randomly choose a pure strategy. Thus, pure strategy can be termed as a mixed strategy occurring with probability equal to 1. How is the concept of game theory applied? Prisoner’s Dilemma: The most common application of Game Theory can be seen in the example of Prisoner’s Dilemma. This game involves two prisoners who are not aware about each other’s decisions in the game. Both have been suspected of committing a crime and are held for questioning. The prisoners face different years of jail sentence based on the strategy they choose. The payoff matrix is as follows: Here the Nash Equilibrium is achieved when both A and B confess. Thus, (5,5) is the collaborative best that both the players can perform. However, this is not the pareto optimal solution. The pareto optimal outcome is (1,1) as both players want to serve as less jail time as possible. Thus, it is not possible for one to be better off without making the other worse off if neither one of them confesses. Battle of the Sexes: Battle of the sexes is a game where a girl and a boy want to go on an outing together, however the girl prefers going to see an opera while the boy prefers going to a football match. However, going to these places separately does not earn them any payoffs, while going together gives higher payoff to only one of them and not both. The payoff matrix is as follows: There are two possible Nash equilibria in this game. One is achieved when both go to Opera and the other when they both go to watch the Football match. Is the concept of game theory accurate? The limitation of game theory is that it is based on certain assumptions. It assumes that the players would always act in favour of their personal interests. However, it is possible to witness real life scenarios where people are more collaborative as well as altruistic. It is also possible that in a real life set up, stability is achieved at an outcome which is not a Nash Equilibrium. Depending on the varied social set ups as well as personal preferences, game theory may not always justify real life situation.
What is a Baby Boomer? According to Merriam Webster - Baby Boomer is a person born during a period in which there is a marked rise in a population's birthrate. This term is used primarily for a person born in the United States following the end of the Second World War and in the years from 1946 to 1964. Though this is the literal meaning, in general terms, this word is used to describe the older section of our society. What is the story behind the baby boomer term? Most nations' economies and industries were destroyed after the World War 2, and only the US was thriving. The country turned its war production into consumer products to meet the world demand, and it had no such competition from other countries. It led to the fastest growing economic prosperity for the nation and created the highest standard of living in any country ever witnessed in such a short span of time. From the automobile to telecommunication to atomic energy, most of the industries in the US were booming along with its population. Hence the children born during this time are called boomers. Generational cohorts are defined mainly by birth year, not current age, there are other cohorts such as Generation X, Generation Y or Millennials, and Generation Z. The term "Millennial" has become popular, and Generation Z is the youngest people on the planet right now. Also read: Millennials on Crowd Media's Radar, Tapping into Influencer Market Space The baby boomer generation is the progeny of the Silent Generations and precede Generation X. They are also known as parent of the Millennials. The silent generations grew up with the hardship of the Great Depression and won World War 2. On the other hand, baby boomers had everything handed to them in the era of newfound prosperity. The first use of the word baby boomer is from January 1963. The Daily Press newspaper article described an increase of college enrollments as the oldest boomers coming of age. In the Oxford English Dictionary, the term dates to a January 23, 1970 article published in the newspaper The Washington Post. This new generation of the Post War era were the inhabitants of the modern world, which concluded the war following it countries around the world came together to lay the foundation of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights. Its purpose is to provide equal human rights and also value and protect all lives regardless of faith, colour, and gender. Also read: Retirement, Baby Boomer Generation and Australia's Tax Scenario When were the baby boomers born? In most of the Western countries, the baby boomers are referred to those born immediately after the end of World War II with the rise of the birth rate that came with it. Interestingly in Australia, the birth rate was on the rise, even during WWII. In Europe, birth rates started rising from the mid-1930s, and it saw a post-war baby boom which lasted till the late 1960s. In China, the baby boom cohort is the largest in the world. For Korea, the baby boom happened after the Korean War. Its government then encouraged people to have two children. In the US, baby boomers are as much as 20% of the entire American population. The population played a substantial role in shaping American culture at large. Currently, most boomers are at retirement age, a matter of great concern as to how the country will deal with the ageing population. Why is the baby boomer’s generation so significant? The generation before baby boomers faced a lot of difficulty in the US. They saw the Great Depression; during the war, they endured food shortages etc. When it was all over this generation could finally afford to have a lot of children. The post-war era also saw a wave of unprecedented economic prosperity. With it came the optimism for a better life. The spike in birth rate elevated American fertility rate hike, and it continued for another 18 years. With the growth of these boomers from babies to children to adults to now seniors, the US reshaped itself. Different industries saw unprecedented growth, manufactures and advertisers targeted this new generation in the new prosperous world. Baby boomers dominated the popular culture in the 1950s and 1960s. They led the social change, which changed the basic fabric of the country. Be it the Civil Rights Movements or protest against the Vietnam War, the boomers were the forefront of it. They also gave a platform to the feminist movement. Their concerns and life experiences show a significant influence on American culture. How do baby boomers want to plan their life ahead of retirement? We need to understand the baby boomers are the generation of first men to walk on the moon, and they are the generation which promoted civil rights and encouraged an end to the Vietnam War. They also were high spirited and wanted to change the world to be a better place, but they also witnessed assassinations of iconic figures like Robert Kennedy, Martin Luther King. Depression-era parents raised them. Most importantly, they saw the rise of technology. Children of Baby boomers have seen a massive change in technology across. A quick read through How has Trading Changed for Millennials? Technology Taking Charge in Shaping Trading Habits, will help to update on how stock trading changed for them. Now that the baby boomers are at the retirement age or already retired, study suggests most of them plan on fulfilling their bucket list items like travelling or living in the countryside on a farm. The Greatest or the Silent Generation had very few investment options, typically in bonds or certificates of deposit. But baby boomers have a varied range of options to grow their hard-earned money and also enjoy its rewards. Industry experts suggest that the baby boomers may choose not to retire early. It could mean postponing retirement, or consulting or getting a part time job. Another important aspect is healthcare. Many baby boomers are in their last 60s and early 70s, it's never too late to work on the healthcare plan. Also read: Five Smart Investment Tips for Millennials