A demand shock is a sudden spike or decline in demand for a particular product or services, usually for short term duration. Demand shocks may be positive or negative depending on the micro and macro-economic factors of the region or a country.
A positive demand shock is induced when consumers start consuming more than the standard aggregate level of demand. For instance, a significant tax cut by the government would allow citizens to have more money at their disposal and will increase the spending and push the demand. A sudden rise in temperature can boost the sale of cold beverages and in turn lead to a positive demand shock.
A negative demand shock is opposite to a positive demand shock. A faulty product may drive away the consumers, which can trigger negative demand shock. For example, if a car manufacturer launched a car which has a faulty electrical system which may lead to fire, it would be rejected by the potential consumers. Fire accidents in few cars of a particular brand may lead to loss of trust in the brand and can cause a substantial decline in demand for the car.
Change in price can alter the demand, but the change will be in demand quantity not at the rate of demand. A hike in prices of consumable commodities like seasonal vegetables and fruits may decrease the quantity purchased by a consumer, but the demand persists. This is not a demand shock.
As per the plot, it can be seen that the curve of the demand line is changed during the demand shock keeping the price constant.
If demand for a particular item or service is spiked, and the suppliers fail to match the demand, then the price is certain to shoot up. Suppose a natural calamity like typhoons or cyclone is forecasted by the government agencies, people will run for emergency supplies like bottled water and food. This will cause temporary demand shock and prices will soar high.
Similarly, when supply is constant, and demand decreases, the market will be flooded with the items with no buyers. This may trigger some price errosion, but eventually, it will move towards negative demand shock.
In positive demand shock, the price of transaction increases as consumers want to consume more and willing to pay a higher price. The supply will gradually meet with the demand at a higher price.
In negative demand shock, the price of transaction declines as consumers will consume less and want to pay less.
The COVID-19 outbreak led to restrictions and lockdowns all around the globe, affecting most of the businesses and services. Many sectors of the economy were completely shut down with no business activity like the hospitality business, travel industry, transport sectors and many others.
Due to restrictions, many manufacturing units stopped functioning or were operated at minimum levels, causing supply constraints. On the other hand, people were losing jobs or getting pay cuts and focused on saving for coping with more severe conditions. People purchased only those goods which were essential.
In COVID-19 situation, the market went into negative supply shock as well as negative demand shock simultaneously.
Sectors like oil and gas, which did not take countermeasure during the early days of demand slump were most affected. The future price of crude oil June contract turned negative. It was a negative demand shock that shook the prices.
Kodak had the control of nearly 80% of the entire photography film market in 1970-80. The Company was into the business of selling chemicals and papers used in developing photographs on paper. It was a Kodak engineer who developed the world’s first digital camera in 1975. The Kodak management rejected the idea and continued on their core business.
The advent of the new technology-digital camera made the Kodak business obsolete, and the product went into negative demand shock.
The Paris agreement on climate control has set a target to decrease the global temperature by 20C. Many countries have announced their target for lower emission levels.
This has resulted in the rise in demand for electric vehicles and batteries. The governments in many countries have announced special economic packages to promote electric vehicles. They have lowered the tax and registration charges making them cheaper. The government initiative and people’s transition from gas-guzzling vehicles to EVs have created a positive demand shock in the market.
What is the Dark Web? The dark web is one such portion of the World Wide Web which is not accessible by regular search engines. The dark web is considered a hotbed for criminal activities, and it is much more than that. Various websites exist on an encrypted network inside the dark web. Standard web browsers and programs cannot find these websites. Once inside the dark web, different sites and pages can be accessed like one does on the web. Scientists believe that the internet we see is only 4% of the entire ocean of the web, meaning the 96% consists of the "Deep and Dark Web". The user interface used in the dark web is usually internet-based, but it utilises special software which is not part of the standard ones. There are dozens of web browsers to surf the internet, but they all work in the same way. These standard browsers use ports and protocols to request, transfer and view data on the Internet. The website you access may look familiar, but as you enter, it may be illegal or something familiar but otherwise not monitored by anyone else. Therefore, the deep web and the dark web are famous for being anonymous. Also read: Cyber Espionage Campaign: Strings that tie China, Australia and the US How to access dark web browser? In order to access a few areas which are restricted, the user may need a password and a process to follow. A special software called TOR (The Onion Router) or the Freenet has these non-standard connections. These browsers are unlike standard internet browsers and have a process to access. They allow the users to browse around the dark web and are focused on keeping the user identity anonymous. If hacked or accessed, the regular web browser can easily provide user information such as who the user is and whereabouts. Though the dark web is providing 100% anonymity, federal agencies have been successful in tracking down criminal activities on the dark web. It is often said that the person you are talking to on the dark web could either be an FBI agent or a criminal. Image: Kalkine What happens inside the world of the dark web? The dark web is famous for allowing sinister activities, but many users go on the dark web to access information which otherwise may not be accessible on standard internet. Such as users from extremely oppressive governments who cut access to the world for their citizens. Unfortunately, such confidential environments also provide open platforms to criminals, terrorists and other such individuals involved in illegal activities. Hence, experts advise users to not access the dark web even out of curiosity as it is a lawless environment. There have been many incidents where innocent, curious users were trapped and forced to get involved in criminal activities or their digital devices hacked and compromised without their knowledge. A study conducted by a University of Surrey researcher Dr Michael McGuires in 2019, Into the Web of Profit, shows that the dark web has become worse in recent times. Since 2016 of all the listings on the dark web suggested, 60% could harm companies. Everything illegal and criminal can be found on the dark web, it also has other legitimate options such as chess clubs or book clubs, but because of the anonymity, the user will not know whom he/she is interacting with. Inside the dark web, anonymity and lawless nature make the crimes which exist otherwise in our society hard to trace. The payment procedure inside the dark web is also different from the World Wide Web. Most often, Bitcoin and Monero cryptocurrency are used for the transactions. RELATED READ: Knock Knock! Cybercriminal at Your Doorstep What’s the difference between the deep web and dark web? The dark web is part of the entire deep web and is hidden from regular browsing access. Most people confuse the deep web and the dark web as one entity. It is not. The deep web content includes anything hidden and restricted behind the security wall such as content which otherwise requires paywall or sign-in or blocked by the author. Content which cannot be easily accessible on regular internet such as medical records, membership websites, paid content are available on the deep web; hence it is also called Invisible Web. No one really knows the total size of the internet, but the experts believe that the standard World Wide Web consists of only 4% internet, the deep web consists of 90% and dark web consists of 6% of the entire internet. ALSO READ: Technology has changed the way we work amid the COVID-19 crisis: A look at in-demand technologies Image: Kalkine Also read: It happens again, NZX being bullied by Cyber-attackers- Down for the fourth day What kind of risk companies face due to the dark web? The Into the Web of Profit report listed below threats various organisations around the world are facing, especially the ones who have weak or insufficient cybersecurity measures. Malware attacks Distributed denial of service (DDoS) attacks Botnets Trojan, keyloggers, exploits Espionage Credentials access Phishing Refunds Customer data Operational data Financial data Intellectual property/ trade secrets Also read: Cybersecurity and the Requirement of a Resilient Environment in Australia Are there advantages and disadvantages to the dark web? The dark web provides complete anonymity, the users get complete privacy to perform any activity, be it illegal or legal. Many countries in the world still have authoritarian regimes offering no civil rights to their people. To such oppressed lot, the dark web provides an opportunity to access news, information, data and also express their views. The dark web is also a perfect place for law agencies to map criminal activities while being undercover. It is also easy to commit gruesome crimes through the dark web as it is complicated and lawless. Criminals can easily use the dark web to compromise someone's privacy, steal data or private information or even hire someone to commit murder. Do internet users need to be concerned about the dark web? The simple answer is no unless the user is using the dark web. Study says that most young people visit the dark web out of curiosity. They do not want to indulge in any criminal activity but want to see how the hidden and secret world of the dark web operates. And that is where the possibility of the electronic device IP address getting hacked by other criminals to perform their criminal activities lies. The earliest use of darknet dates back to the year 2000. Freenet was created at the University of Edinburgh based on a student research paper. Ian Clark wrote the paper in 1999 on the possibility of such an encrypted internet base. Freenet was created to oppose censorship and provide a platform for free speech. The most powerful dark web is TOR, and it was created by the United States government to have a secure encrypted communication in case of emergency and complete disaster. Even today, many law agencies are secretly active inside the world of the dark web to gain access in the criminal world and stay one step ahead.
Dead Cat Bounce Dead Cat bounce is a colloquial phrase which is quite popular in the financial markets. The term was coined a long time ago and generally referred to the peculiar behaviour of the price. The phrase denotes a recovery in the asset’s price, often a sharp one after a prolonged downtrend. Sometimes it is also referred to a short but sharp fall, succeeded by an equally sharp recovery. How does a downtrend continue for a long time? Quite often, some securities in the financial markets depict a very long downtrend which may last from a few months to a few years depending on the severity of the fundamental headwinds. These prolonged downtrends are so strong that no support levels can withhold the downtrend and the prices keep on falling. Every support level gets taken out by excessive selling, which pushes the prices even lower. These lower prices force the long holders to liquidate their positions as no visible halt in the downtrend is noticed. This liquidation from existing buyers further fuels the selling, leading to the continuation of the downtrend. As the price keeps on falling, the buyers do not get enough confidence to buy and consequently keep getting overpowered by selling pressure continues the downtrend. So what is the ideology behind “Dead Cat Bounce”? In due course of a downtrend, the security tends to become oversold for the time being. Oversold is a technical term is used for security which seems to have fallen quite a bit in a specified period. In other words, a security that has been continually sold in a specified period tends to reach a level wherein the sellers are no more interested in selling at further lower rates. This is where the buyers’ step in and try to buy these stocks at low prices, leading to an increase in demand over the supply. This fresh buying tends to push the price up hence resulting in a short upside movement or, in technical parlance a “Bounce”. This point is where the downtrend witnesses a temporary upside momentum which is exactly quoted as a “Dead Cat Bounce”. The ideology is “Even a dead cat will bounce if fallen from a great height.” Likewise, a short bounce is quite expected after a prolonged downtrend which does not change the trend as a bounce does not mean the cat has become alive. Image Source ©Kalkine Group Does it signify a reversal from a downtrend? A Dead Cat bounce is an upside momentum, witnessed after a prolonged downward trend, generally near the oversold price region. But it is to be noted that this price bounce is merely a reaction of the downtrend which is often witnessed in the oversold areas. This does not change the entire trend, and more often than not, the trend continues in the primary direction after the bounce fizzles out. Why is it difficult to trade a Dead Cat Bounce? Most of the time it is difficult to trade a move like a Dead Cat Bounce as the bounce is often very quick and short-lived. The overall trend remains negative, which is in contradictory to the short-term bounce. Also, few investors mistake it for the trend change, which often proves to be a mistake. It generally becomes difficult to estimate some key support areas from where the bounce may occur as the downtrend is quite strong and lacks demand to support the price. However, there are some momentum indicators like RSI (Relative Strength Index), Stochastics oscillator etc. which may help to gauge oversold zones from where the bounce may occur. What are the reasons for a Dead Cat Bounce? There could be many reasons for a Dead Cat Bounce to occur on the charts as the sudden demand may come due to numerous reasons. Some of the reasons are Oversold Price As discussed, due to a prolonged downtrend and continued selling the price often comes to a level wherein the sellers are no more interested in selling at these lower prices and at the same time buyers often find a value proposition. This leads to a spike in demand, which ultimately results in a Dead Cat Bounce. Strong support area There are some levels of support on the price chart that are quite prominent. In other words, there are some regions of support which are quite strong and may remain relevant for years. These support levels are generally hard to break at the first attempt, which results in a bounce or a complete reversal. How to profit from a Dead Cat Bounce There are two different strategies when it comes to trading these kinds of sharp and against the trend moves. They are contradictory to each other, but both are based on proven price behaviour. Short Selling the rally As the primary trend of the underlying is still downward, one thought arises to go short on the bounce. This strategy one to participate in the downtrend but with a much better price. If these rallies are met with a resistance level like a falling trendline, horizontal price resistance etc. then these areas are ideal to sell the bounce in a downtrend. Buying into the rally Another opinion arises, why not to participate in the bounce? This strategy can also be fruitful provided the bounce should be stronger and last for a while, which is not always the case. This essentially calls for a very quick decision making while capitalising on the temporary bounce. Bottomline A Dead Cat Bounce is a prolonged downtrend followed by a short-term bounce. These bounces generally don’t last long, and once they fade, the trend continues towards the south. However, sometimes a bounce may also act as a reversal, but for the added confirmation a trader should also look at other signals of a reversal like bullish divergence at the bottom or a double bottom chart pattern.
What is earnest money? Earnest money refers to a sum of money that is paid by the buyer to the seller as a form of reassurance of future payments during the sale of a house. Paying earnest money is also beneficial to the buyer because it gives him leverage to arrange the remaining funds. Earnest money can be deposited via a direct home deposit, an escrow account or in the form of good faith money. How does earnest money work? Earnest money is paid before closing on a house sale. When the seller and buyer come to an agreement on the house sale, the seller must take the house off the market. Earnest money serves the purpose of assuring the seller that the deal would not fall through. The amount paid as earnest money is usually 1-3% of the total sale value of the house. Most sellers prefer to hold earnest money in an escrow account. In case the deal does not materialize, the money can be given back to the buyer directly from the escrow account. This removes the concerns any buyer may have about whether the money would be returned by the seller or not. In case the buyer and seller go ahead with the sale, the earnest money becomes a part of the down payment. Thus, the buyer would only pay the remaining amount of the down payment. However, in case the agreement does not materialize between the buyer and the seller, the earnest money is returned to the buyer after deducting the escrow fees from it. With money locked in on one house, buyers are less likely to close a deal with any other house seller. How is the amount of earnest money decided upon? The percentage of the total amount that can be taken as earnest money varies from state to state as policies are different. Additionally, the market scenario is also a major factor affecting the amount of earnest money to be paid. Under normal conditions, 1-2% of the total sale value can be taken as earnest money. However, if the market does not have a high demand for houses, then the percentage charged as earnest money could be lower around 1%. In markets with high demand, this percentage could be as high as 3%, or even 5%. To outbid other buyers, one can pay a larger sum of money as earnest money. This would increase the buyer’s chances of securing the property. Why is earnest money important? Earnest money may not always be mandated by the seller, but in a highly competitive market earnest money may be necessarily required. Paying the earnest money makes the agreement official. Without earnest money, the deal may not be considered official in many regions. It is one of the four stages of payment while making a deal on a house. However, in certain instances, even after the payment of the earnest money, the deal may not materialize. Typically, a buying agent should be able to assist the buyer in such a case. What conditions must be met for earnest money to be refundable? Earnest money has certain contingencies attached to it for the protection of both the seller and the buyer. Even after the seller has accepted the earnest money deposit, there are certain contingencies that must be met before the deal can be finalized. These include the following: Home inspection contingency: This contingency is placed so that buyers can back out of the agreement in case the there are some faults in the property, and it is in need of repair. However, it is not necessary for the buyer to call off the deal in such a case. He can simply work with the seller to reach a mutual decision rather than scraping away the deal completely. Financing Contingency: It might be the case that a buyer had not been approved for a mortgage before making the earnest deposit. Here the financing contingency would protect the buyer. If the mortgage does not get approved even though the earnest money had been paid, then the financing contingency allows the buyer to walk away from the deal along with the refunded earnest money. Appraisal Contingency: This protects the buyer in case the property has been overvalued. Here the lender can hire a third-party investigator who can examine whether the property has been priced at a fair value or not. If the value of the house comes out to be higher than the fair value, then the buyer can walk away with a refund. Additionally, this contingency can be used to bring down the price of the sale too. Contingency for Selling the Existing home: It is quite possible that contracts are made based on whether the buyer can sell an existing home or not. If the buyer is unable to sell the existing home, then he can walk away with a refund. These contingencies can be waived by the buyer in case he is sure that the deal would close and there would be no backing off. However, it is important to note that contingencies can provide an extra cushion against adverse circumstances and they might come in handy in certain cases. What is the difference between earnest money and good faith deposit? Both terms can be used interchangeably. However, all good faith deposits are not the same as earnest money. A good faith deposit can be made directly to the mortgage lender, while earnest money is usually held in an escrow account. Both serve the purpose if providing a sense of security about the buyer sticking to the same deal and not going elsewhere. The good faith deposit eventually forms a part of the lending process. However, in case the deal does not materialize, it is possible that the borrower would not get his good faith deposit back.
An earnings announcement is a public statement of a company’s earnings, usually done on a periodic basis. These official announcements are released quarterly or yearly to inform the investors and the market about a company’s financial performance. Companies announce their financial reports through press releases on their websites and list them on the stock exchanges website. After the information is released through a conference call, there is a question-and-answer round with the senior management in which analysts, media, and investors can participate. On the basis of the report, analysts then incorporate earning measures such as EPS (Earning Per Share). These reports help investors in making sound investment decisions. Earnings results are announced during the earnings season on a date chosen by the company. Stock prices of the companies take a swing before and after the company releases its earnings report. Equity analysts also predict earnings estimates through their analysis which drives stock prices movement due to speculations. Stock prices even move after the earning results are declared, up or down, depending on how the results have turned out. Source: Copyright © 2021 Kalkine Media Pty Ltd. When are earning announcements made? It is mandatory for every listed company to report its quarterly financial results in the US but not in Australia. In Australia, companies release their financial report on a semi-annual basis. Having said that, many Australian companies also update their shareholders quarterly, but these are not considered official earnings. These quarterly reports are released to satisfy the market demand for information and to disclose the company’s guidance on its performance. The financial calendar varies from country to country and therefore, the earnings season changes as well. In the US, the earnings season starts after the final month of the financial quarter. Usually, American companies start posting their earnings reports in January, April, July, and October. In Australia, companies report twice a year, usually around February and August, or May and October. It depends upon the company’s financial cycle. However, whether quarterly in the US or semi-annually in Australia, these earnings results are required as agreed while listing the company with the stock exchanges. Source: Copyright © 2021 Kalkine Media Pty Ltd. Why are earnings announcements necessary? Financial results help investors, media, and other stakeholders of the company to have a greater understanding of the company’s financial footing. Companies not just provide sales, operating profit, net profits, but also offer guidance and outlook for coming months. Additionally, these reports also have senior management statements directed at the market. Therefore, earning announcements act as an informative document for the investors and analysts to study and gauge a company’s performance. Analysts can provide earnings estimates, and investors can then take wise investment decisions. These documents are also vital for companies when it comes to seeking funding for the business. Financial institutions can also judge a company’s financial health by evaluating earnings reports. The management offers insights on growth drivers, risk factors, etc that impacted the earnings during that particular period. Analysts also assess the earnings results, taking into account the external factors that drove the growth or impacted the firm negatively. These factors could be mergers and acquisitions, bankruptcies, economic discrepancies, policy changes, etc. For investors, earnings reports are essential because these announcements swing the price up or down. Traders keep a keen eye on these reports as it can be a time when they can confirm positions. However, some investors also avoid earnings seasons because of the involvement of various human factors.