Terms Beginning With 'c'

Consumer Price Index

What is Consumer Price Index (CPI)?

Consumer Price Index or CPI is a measure of weighted-average of goods and services’ prices purchased largely by households. It is used to measure the percentage change of overall price level in the economy and consequently to calculate inflation.

CPI is an important tool used to judge the economic stability and financial steadiness of a country. Central banks introduce policies aimed at inflation control that use CPI as a measure of effectiveness. CPI is calculated for few essential goods which include food, housing, transportation, electronics, medical care, education, etc.

Why is CPI important?

CPI does not only compute the level of inflation in the economy but also gives a picture of the cost of living. Inflation can reduce the value of existing money in the consumer’s hand and can considerably lower the standard of living.

CPI is a timed measure of inflation rates which can shed light on the other macroeconomic indicators. For example, as inflation increases, the input costs for firms also increase. Thus, they are compelled to reduce their production and lay off workers. Therefore, high inflation can lead to unemployment in the economy.

Keeping a tab on inflation rates becomes necessary, especially for governing bodies like central banks. When prices are expected to increase, the central bank must control the supply of money in the economy by adopting contractionary monetary policies. This can only be done with prior knowledge about prices and inflation rates.

The current period CPI can also be used to determine future price stream. For instance, future property rents may be calculated by multiplying the current rent with the prevalent CPI. If CPI increases, so will the rent.

How is CPI calculated?

CPI is calculated by taking a base year as a reference period and calculating the price change from that year onwards. Simply put, it is the ratio of the cost of the basket of goods in the current period to the cost of the basket of goods in the base period, whole multiplied by 100.

Various countries have different methods of calculating CPI based on the basket of goods they choose. In Australia, CPI is calculated by the Australian Bureau of Statistics and is published once every quarter. These items are then categorized into 87 categories (or expenditure classes) and 11 groups. Every quarter, price changes in these goods are calculated from the previous quarter, and then are aggregated to find out the inflation rate.

Each good included in the CPI basket has a weight attached to it. CPI is then calculated by taking a weighted average of the prices of these consumption goods. The weights attached to the prices of these goods are arrived at by calculating their share in the total expenditure.

How are the goods and prices arrived at?

Prices are collected from various sources that sell household items like supermarkets, department stores and websites. Other sources include the prices of government provisions like electricity and fuel through government bodies designed to supply them.

For deciding the consumption basket, ABS focusses on the level of consumption of various goods and services in the economy. The item on which people are spending a larger part of their income, ends up gaining a higher weightage in the CPI calculation. Thus, it is important to note that higher weightage is given to those goods which take up a larger share in the expenditure of overall consumption.

What are some of the problems with CPI?

Despite government authorities and international organisations relying heavily on CPI for information about various economic indicators, CPI has its own set of limitations which need to be considered. These include the following:

  • CPI is not a direct indicator of price level: CPI measures the rate of change of price and not the actual price levels in the economy. Thus, it is only a relative measure of prices and not an absolute measure of prices. A higher CPI may falsely indicate that a commodity is more expensive than the other, However, it only means that the prices of that commodity have increased more than the other.
  • Limited Inclusivity: CPI only includes the prices of certain select goods for major residential hubs. A lot of times, CPI calculation may exclude the prices of goods in lesser inhabited areas or regional areas. Moreover, it is only an aggregate and not an absolute measure, thus, it would not be able to justify different spending habits of various households.
  • Exclusion of quality changes: The products included in the consumption basket may experience a change in their quality and not just their prices. The prices of a good may also change because of better quality of the good being provided and consumers shifting to the newer variant. Therefore, the adjustments made to the same product in terms of better quality cannot be adjusted while calculating CPI. Similarly, services are also difficult to quantify, especially when the quality of services are to be incorporated into CPI calculation. An example of this can be, a hospital expanding their equipment and introducing better services.
  • Substitution Bias: When the price of a good increases, then people might shift to a closer substitute of that good. However, CPI fails to incorporate this change. This is called the substitution effect. Therefore, unfair weightage might be given to the good that has increased prices, rather than the good which has greater share in the consumption basket.
  • Exclusion of new goods: It takes a lot of time for new goods to be incorporated into CPI calculation because of the various defined categories.
  • Not a precise indicator of cost of living: CPI might be a helpful aid in estimating the cost of living; however, it can never be an accurate measure of the same. There are other indexes which might be more accurate in justifying the cost of living.

Despite all these limitations, CPI is a powerful tool used across the globe in analysing markets and economies. It can be used to compare how markets are progressing and which goods are more expensive in an economy. While using CPI, it is important to note that it is only a relative measure of price and it records price changes and not the absolute price levels.

In the recent past, the absolute return approach of Investing has turned out to be one of the fastest-growing investment strategies worldwide. A lot of financial advisors talk about such investments providing absolute returns. So, what exactly are the “Absolute Returns” and are they are promising? What is meant by Absolute return? Absolute return computes the increase or decrease, in an asset over a period of time, as a proportion of the original investment amount. The focus here is only on that specific asset or portfolio and not related market events. Absolute returns only consider the price movement for any specified time period. Absolute return, reckons an investment’s performance without considering the expanse of time for which investment was committed. Absolute returns can be computed for a quarter, semi- annual, annual period, 3-year duration or more. Absolute Returns are independent of Market movements and thus do not draw relative comparisons. It is one of the most commonly used investment performance metric in Hedge Funds and Mutual Funds. How to compute Absolute return? Suppose an investor Mr. Rich, invested AUD 50,000 5 years back, and the current value of his investment is AUD 75,000. The Absolute return on Mr. Rich’s investment would be 50 %, calculated using- Copyright © 2021 Kalkine Media Pty Ltd Copyright © 2021 Kalkine Media Pty Ltd So, Copyright © 2021 Kalkine Media Pty Ltd Absolute returns are just returns from point of time to other. The notion of an 'absolute return' seems very attractive to get investors’ attention as it ignores the relative market movement and promises an appreciation with zero correlation to markets. Anyhow, Absolute Return technique of computing investment yields is an apt way of calculating return on investment, predominantly in the early stages. There are numerous other types of return metrics an investor can look for later on. Major 4 types mattering most to investors being –  Absolute Return, Relative Return, Total Return & CAGR. What is the difference between Absolute Return, Relative Return, Total Return & CAGR? Absolute return refers to the gain/ loss in a single investment asset/ portfolio but to comprehend how their investments are acting relative to various market yardsticks, relative return is taken into consideration.   Relative return is the excess or deficit an asset achieves over a timeframe matched to a market index. Benchmark Return – Absolute return, gives the Relative return also called sometimes as alpha. Example, if S&P index gives a 10% return during a given period and one’s investment portfolio gives an absolute return of 12% then relative return on investment is positive/ excess 2%. Total returns take into account the effect of intermittent incomes as well as dividends. For example, in an equity investment of AUD 200 having current value AUD 240, the company also declares a dividend of AUD 10 during the year. Total returns will take into account this $10 dividend too. Thus, Total returns on the investment of AUD 200 now will be 25.00% = {(240+10-200)/200} x 100 Absolute and Total returns are easy to calculate as performance metrics, but the real challenge is when comparisons are drawn based on time period of return. Here comes in CAGR, it takes into account the term of the investment too, thus giving a more correct and comparable picture. It is computed as: CAGR (%) = Absolute Return / Investment period (equated in years) Consider for example, two investment options: One where investor earns absolute returns of 10% in 24 months and another where investor earns 5% absolute returns in 9-month duration. So, CAGR would be- For option one: CAGR = 5.00% i.e.  10%/2 (24 months/12 months is equals to 2 years) For option two: CAGR = 6.66% i.e. 5%/0.75 (9 months/12 months is equals to 0.75 years) What’s wrong with just measuring investment performance using Absolute Returns? Absolute returns will only tell an investor how much his/her investments grew by; they do not tell anything about the speed at which investments grew. When people talk about their real estate investments and say, “I bought that house for X in the year 2004. It’s worth 4X today! It has quadrupled in 17 years.” This is an application of absolute return. The drawback here is that it takes into account only the capital appreciation and doesn’t draw comparison with options having different time horizons. Investors can rely on this measure of investment performance only if they are looking for higher returns, without bothering how fast they were generated. Absolute return also doesn’t convey much about an investment compared to relative markets. Then, why do Hedge Fund/ Mutual Fund Managers choose an Investment strategy based on Absolute returns? Absolute returns should be used at times when investors are willing to shoulder some risk in exchange for a prospective to earn excess returns. This is irrespective of the timeframe and Fund administrators who measure portfolio performance in relation of an absolute return typically aim to develop a portfolio that is spread across asset categories, topography, and economic phases. They are looking for below mentioned points in their portfolios- Positive returns- An absolute returns approach of investment targets at producing positive returns at all costs, irrespective of the upside & downside market movements. Independent of yardsticks- The returns are in absolute terms and not in comparison to a benchmark yield or a market index. Diversification of portfolio- With the intention of distribution of risk, among different investment options producing positive returns in diverse ways a mixed bag of absolute return assets give a diversified investment portfolio. Less volatility- The total risk of investment is spread across the different asset held in such a portfolio. Ensuring less overall volatility in collective returns. Actively adjustable to market movements– Usually, investments look for positive returns with zero market correlation. Market shares a negative correlation with absolute return investments and vice versa. In any investment atmosphere, there are varied investment strategies and goals. Absolute return investment strategies are looking to avoid systemic risks using unconventional assets and derivatives, short selling, arbitrage and leverage. It is appropriate for investors who are prepared to bear risk for short and long-term gains.

Darvas Box system Every great trader/investor in the history of the markets had a specific method to approach the markets, which eventually led them to create a good fortune, Darvas Box system is one such method. It is a trend following strategy developed by Nicholas Darvas in the 1950s to identify stocks for good upside potential. This is one of the few methods to trade the markets which uses the combination of both the technical analysis and fundamental analysis for a much more refined decision.  The fundamentals were used to identify the stocks, and technical analysis was used to time the entry and exits. Who was Nicholas Darvas? Nicholas Darvas was arguably one of the greatest stock traders/investors during 1950s – 1960s, but surprisingly he was a ball dancer by profession and not a professional stock trader. Even while trading and building his fortune, he was on a world tour for his performances in many countries and took up trading as a part-time job. In November 1952 he was invited to a Toronto Nightclub for which he received an unusual proposition of getting paid in shares by the club owners. At that time, all he knew was there is something called stocks which moves up and down in value, that’s it. He accepted the offer and received 6k shares of a Canadian mining company Brilund at 60 cents per share, with the condition that if the stock falls below this price within six months, then the owners would make up the difference. This was the introduction of a professional ball dancer to the stock market. Nicholas Darvas couldn’t perform at the club, so he bought those shares as a gesture. Within two months, Brilund touched $1.9, and his initial investment of $3000 turned to $11400, netting in almost three times of his investment. This triggered a curiosity into the stock markets, and he started to explore trading. Origin of the Darvas Box theory Initially, he was trading on his broker’s recommendation, tips from wealthy businessmen, he even approached some advisory services or any source that he could get his hands on for the tips, but all led him to losses. After losing a lot of money, he decided to develop his own theory, and after a lot of trial and error, his observations and continuous refinements he eventually invented his theory “The Box Theory”. So what exactly is the Box Theory? Fundamentals Analysis As stated earlier, the box theory uses a judicious bend of both the technical and fundamentals. Darvas believed that in order to spot a good stock or even a multibagger, there should be something brewing up in the respective sector as a whole or some major fundamental change in that specific company. Generally, the fundamentals that Darvas used to study were on a broader sector level, and not the company-specific fundamentals. Even for the specific company Darvas used to look from a general perspective like, is the company launching a new product which could be a blockbuster hit. He completely refrained from looking at numbers and financial statements as his initial experiment with ratios and financial statements didn’t yield any good result. To know more on the three financial statements read: Income Statement (P&L) Balance Sheet Cash Flow Statement Technical Analysis Darvas was a big believer in price action and volume of the stock. He believed if some major fundamental changes were to take place in a company, this soon shows up in the stock price and its volume of trading as more people get interested in buying or selling the stock. With his observations here realized by just observing the price action, he can participate in the rally which gets triggered by some major fundamental development without actually knowing about the change. Using the box theory, Darvas used to scan stocks based on rising volume as he needed mass participation in the rally. Also, he only picked up those stocks that were already rising. His theory is all about “buy high, sell higher” instead of the conventional belief of “buy low, sell high”. After the stock satisfies both the parameters of increasing price and volume with major underlying fundamental change, Darvas looks to enter the stock. Good read on momentum trading. How and where to enter? Major part of the box theory is based on entry and exit levels. To enter a stock, Darvas looked for a consolidation phase preceded by a rally. A consolidation phase is the price action wherein the price moves up and down in a tight range, that is, a non-directional move. He would then mark the high and low of the consolidation phase with the horizontal line, essentially making it a box-like structure, hence the name “Box Theory”. The high point is called the ceiling, and low is called the floor. Whenever the stocks break above the ceiling, Darvas would look to buy one tick above the ceiling with one tick below floor as a stop-loss point. Pyramiding Darvas discovered early on, in order to become successful in the market your winning bets should yield much more profit than the loss in the losing bets. This led him to do pyramiding in his winning trade, which is clearly defined in the box theory. Pyramiding means to increase the existing position if the stock is going in the favour, which leads to a much higher profit in the winning trades. According to the box theory, the repetition of the entry criterion is the new signal for adding onto the existing position. In other words, after a position, if the stocks stage the same setup, that is, a consolidation after a rally, then the break above the ceiling of this new box would signal to increase position with the revised stop loss of 1 tick below the new floor. In any case, whenever the stock falls below the current floor, the entire position would we sold off at once. This is the only exit condition in the box theory, and there is no method of booking profit upfront as Darvas believed in holding on to a rising stock. The only way to book profit is to let the stock to take out the revised stop loss.

What is Data Analytics?  Data Analytics involves a set of quantitative and qualitative approaches and processes that can be used to determine useful information for business decision-making. The process involves various patterns and techniques, including: extracting a raw database, and categorising it to identify and analyse the behaviour, relation and connection of the results.  The ultimate goal is to acquire valuable information in order to make decisions for businesses’ benefit and productivity.  In today's competitive times, most companies chalk out their business plan with the help of data analytics. With organisations becoming customer-service oriented, data analytics has become a critical tool to reach the target audience in an effective manner while understanding their requirements. Once data is collected, it is analysed and stored according to organisations’ requirements.  The data analysis process has multiple layers involved, and its diverse modules are not just used in businesses but also in science and social science fields. Rather than making decisions based on just available information, one can utilise data analytics in examining the data in standard ways and churning out the results from it.  It has been observed that companies generally make decisions based on past references and future outcomes. Data analytics appears advantageous in providing useful information towards this end.  Why do Businesses Need to Use Data Analytics?  Many data analytics’ tools and softwares are readily available these days. These systems use resources, such as machine learning algorithms and automation.   Data scientists and analysts are counted amongst the leading career options as well. These professionals use data analytics techniques while researching and presenting useful information for businesses to increase productivity and gain. The process helps companies understand their target audience and determine effective ways to cater to their needs. Data analytics can further be used to design strategies in marketing campaigns and promotions and also evaluate its results.  Data analytics is primarily used in business-to-consumer (B2C) processes to boost business performance and improve the bottom line. There are data collection firms which gather consumer information and provide it to the businesses so that the companies can effectively influence the market. The collected data is not only used to understand and impact consumer behaviour but also determine market economics and its practical implementation.  The data used in the process can be either be data collected in the past or newly updated data. There are various methods to manage consumer and market information. It may come directly from the customers or potential customers or can be purchased from the data collection vendors. The data primarily includes audience demographics, behavioural patterns and expense threshold.  How Can Data Analytics be Effectively Used in Business Processes? Data analytics is an ever-evolving technique. Earlier, the data was collected manually, but with the rise of internet and technology, data is now collected online with the help of search engines and social media platforms. Subsequently, the information is analysed through available software.  Here is a list of some key steps businesses can follow to leverage the benefits of data analytics: Set up crucial metrics: This step reduces the guesswork and provide data-based insights to the businesses. Before embarking on the data analytics process, it is vital to determine the goal for your business. Analysing customer data helps in understanding conversion rate, consumer spending ability, demographics etc. The results of the analysis can support the businesses while making decisions in launching an advertising or marketing campaign. Similarly, the unwanted data can be erased from the database so that the brands can focus on their right target audience. The relevant metrics will change the course of the company and push it in the right direction. Moreover, once your key metrics are set, even when the market conditions change in the future, you can adjust the metrics according to the requirement and achieve the results. Set a clear module: It is important to examine the data correctly by avoiding common mistakes. An ambiguous path can produce confusing insights while wasting time and energy of businesses.  Therefore, it is recommended to draw a clear goal in order to achieve actionable insights. The data, when collected from different sources, need to be merged accurately in the analytics model. Businesses can modulate their data analytics systems either manually or through automation. There are various data modelling practices available in the market. The best use of these techniques can simplify the process of modelling complex data.  Data visualisation: Once the relevant data is collected, and the modules are set to analysis, visualisation of that data will assist in understanding the information correctly. When the businesses have an acute knowledge of what their target audience wants, they can then focus on strategising advertisement and content, which matches the consumers' interest.  It is the critical step in the data analytics process to distinguish insights from information.  Not everyone is comfortable dealing with numbers. Hence, ensuring that key stakeholders understand essential points and information can be displayed in a visually appealing format seem crucial to capitalise on data effectively. Right tools to implement insights:Having access to data and insights can get overwhelming. However, the information is worthless if the businesses are unable to implement it successfully. While it is important to collect the data and set critical metrics and modules to analyse it, it is also imperative to translate the data into practical actions. The eventual goal is to improve sales or grow profits. It is ultimately in the marketers' hands to transform the gained insights into a successful implementation. The consumers' insights should be incorporated while establishing a marketing plan and at all decision-making steps. 

An instruction given to a broker from a trader to sell or buy a specific asset at a certain price that expires at the close of trading session if not completed, is termed as day order. A day order expires if the specified price is not met till the closing of trading hours.

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