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Highlights
- Evaluates two valuation models for (CBA)
- Compares (CBA) with banking sector metrics
- Analyses growth, risk, and dividend-based scenarios
Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX:CBA), a cornerstone of the Australian financial system and one of the largest constituents of the ASX200, is often scrutinised for its potential to outperform broader market indices like the S&P/ASX 200 (XJO). With (ASX:CBA) currently trading around $179.13, the question arises: can its stock outperform other ASX200 stocks in 2025?
Assessing Price-Earnings (PE) Valuation
One of the simplest yet informative valuation methods used is the Price-Earnings (PE) ratio. By dividing the FY24 earnings per share of $5.63 by the current share price, (CBA) trades at a PE ratio of approximately 31.8x. This is substantially higher than the banking sector average of 19x, raising questions about whether the premium is justified.
To get a sense of a ‘sector-adjusted’ value, multiplying the average PE (19x) by CBA’s EPS gives a valuation of approximately $106.92 — noticeably below the current trading price.
Dividend Discount Model (DDM) Analysis
For income-heavy stocks like banks, dividend-focused valuation methods are often more insightful. The Dividend Discount Model (DDM) uses projected dividend payments and a discount rate to estimate intrinsic value. Assuming a stable dividend growth and a risk rate ranging from 6% to 11%, DDM yields a valuation range for (CBA) between $98.33 and $100.66 using a base dividend of $4.65 to $4.76 per share.
Factoring in fully franked dividends — which include franking credits available to eligible shareholders — results in a gross dividend estimate of $6.80. This brings the implied valuation up to $143.80 per share, which is still below its current market price.
Beyond the Numbers
While valuation models provide a useful baseline, they don’t capture everything. For example, the future performance of (CBA) depends on strategic decisions around income diversification (interest vs. non-interest income), macroeconomic trends (like house prices and consumer confidence), and even internal metrics like leadership effectiveness and workplace culture.
The (CBA) appears richly priced based on standard valuation models, factors like dividend stability and strategic positioning within the ASX200 landscape could influence its performance in 2025. For a comprehensive outlook, ongoing monitoring of economic indicators and company strategy remains essential.
