Highlights
- Two common models simplify share valuation.
- WBC appears undervalued vs. sector average.
- Dividend-based valuation adds useful insight.
When evaluating dividend-focused shares on the ASX, Westpac Banking Corporation (ASX:WBC) often comes into focus for income-driven investors. Trading at around $33, there's been debate over whether the current Westpac share price reflects fair value or leaves room for upside. By using two common valuation techniques—Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio and the Dividend Discount Model (DDM)—a more structured estimate can be formed.
The P/E Ratio Comparison Method
The Price-to-Earnings ratio (P/E) remains a standard valuation metric. It compares the current share price to the company’s earnings per share (EPS). Westpac reported an EPS of $1.92 for FY24, placing its P/E at approximately 17.3x with a share price of $33.13. When compared to the sector average of 19x, this suggests Westpac could be trading at a relative discount.
Applying sector-average logic—where earnings are multiplied by the sector P/E—results in a price estimation of around $36.48. This method assumes that a bank with earnings similar to Westpac should ideally be priced near the broader banking sector average.
Similar comparisons can be drawn with peers like Bank of Queensland (ASX:BOQ) and National Australia Bank (ASX:NAB), especially given how central banks are within the Australian equity landscape, representing a significant portion of the ASX by market capitalisation.
Dividend Discount Model (DDM) Approach
Since banks like Westpac are known for consistent dividend payments, another reliable valuation method is the DDM. This model factors in expected dividends and applies a risk-adjusted return to derive a theoretical share value.
Using Westpac’s FY24 dividend of $1.66 and assuming steady dividend growth, this approach produces a valuation near $35.10. An alternative, more conservative dividend estimate of $1.61 gives a result of $34.05.
Importantly, when including franking credits (which boost income for eligible shareholders), the grossed-up dividend of $2.30 drives a valuation closer to $48.64.
While both models offer useful perspectives, they serve as starting points. Understanding the broader context—such as management quality, financial statements, and sector dynamics—is essential. Combining these quantitative tools with qualitative analysis helps form a more complete picture of where shares like Westpac (ASX:WBC) may be heading.
For investors evaluating dividend banking shares, applying both comparative and income-based valuation frameworks offers a well-rounded perspective grounded in fundamentals.