Ford downgraded at Barclays on elevated volume headwinds

January 23, 2025 12:55 AM AEDT | By Investing

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Ford downgraded at Barclays on elevated volume headwinds

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Investing.com -- Barclays downgraded Ford Motor (NYSE:F) to Equal Weight from Overweight in a note Wednesday, citing concerns about elevated volume headwinds and uncertainty surrounding the automaker's 2025 earnings outlook.

The firm also reduced its price target for Ford shares to $11 from $13.

Barclays (LON:BARC) analysts noted that while Ford has made significant strides in its transformation efforts, challenges such as inventory destocking and modest price normalization are expected to weigh on earnings.

"Elevated volume headwinds in 2025 due to inventory destocking and continued modest price normalization will drive downside on earnings estimates," the analysts wrote.

Although cost-cutting initiatives may provide some relief, Barclays expressed skepticism about the automaker's ability to meaningfully narrow its cost gap compared to competitors in the near term.

"We believe there is too much uncertainty on the path ahead for cost improvement," the note stated, adding that the firm's 2025 EPS estimate of $1.44 is below the Bloomberg consensus of $1.63.

Ford’s upcoming fourth-quarter earnings are expected to show a slight beat, but the company’s 2025 guidance could disappoint, according to Barclays.

The analysts anticipate that Ford will face "weaker volume and price" trends, compounded by broader industry challenges such as lower light vehicle production (LVP) in North America and Europe.

Barclays remains more optimistic about General Motors (NYSE:GM), which is expected to offset similar volume and price headwinds through reduced electric vehicle losses and lower spending on its Cruise division. GM remains a "positive catalyst" heading into fourth-quarter results, the firm said.

Ford shares were trading around 1.6% lower following the downgrade.

This article first appeared in Investing.com

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