Geopolitical Jitters and Rate Bets Shape Market Mood

June 20, 2025 10:39 AM AEST | By Team Kalkine Media
 Geopolitical Jitters and Rate Bets Shape Market Mood
Image source: shutterstock

Highlights 

  • ASX set to open lower amid global tensions 
  • Rate cut speculation lifts financials 
  • Tech and mining stocks see renewed pressure 

The Australian share market appears poised for a softer start, with S&P/ASX 200 futures indicating a 0.27% decline ahead of the open. The dip follows a muted session yesterday, where the S&P/ASX200 index edged down 7 points to close at 8,523, driven by losses in major sectors such as Materials, Information Technology, and Health Care. 

Sector Movements and Interest Rate Watch 

Investor sentiment was influenced by a weak domestic jobs report, which showed a drop of 2,500 jobs in May and a slight dip in the participation rate. This has reinforced expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia might adjust the cash rate to 3.60% in July, boosting interest rate-sensitive sectors. 

Financial stocks saw some momentum, with notable gains from Westpac Banking Corporation (ASX:WBC), which rose 1.73%, and Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX:CBA), which added 1.5%. Meanwhile, Real Estate and Consumer Discretionary segments also posted moderate advances. 

On the other hand, a pullback in commodity prices saw major miners lose ground. Mineral Resources Limited (ASX:MIN) declined by 2.39%, while Rio Tinto Limited (ASX:RIO) slipped 2.31%, as iron ore prices hovered near nine-month lows around US$92.50 per tonne. 

Global Influences and Geopolitical Worries 

Overseas, markets were quiet due to the Juneteenth holiday closure in the US. However, equity futures softened amid growing concerns about the Middle East. Comments from former US President Donald Trump hinting at a potential military move against Iran within two weeks have raised market anxiety. Such developments could disrupt oil transit routes and create broader instability, particularly around the Strait of Hormuz. 

Adding to global tension, a cybersecurity incident involving 16 billion stolen credentials across tech platforms such as Apple, Meta, and Google is poised to impact sentiment in the technology sector when US markets reopen. 

European Moves and Commodities Snapshot 

European share markets echoed global caution, with indices like the FTSEurofirst 300 and FTSE 100 declining. The energy sector saw some gains due to a rise in oil prices, but travel and leisure stocks took a hit. 

Central bank decisions were mixed—while the Bank of England kept rates unchanged, central banks in Norway and Switzerland enacted rate cuts, indicating varying approaches to dealing with slowing growth. 

Commodities moved on geopolitical cues: Brent crude jumped to US$78.85 per barrel, while US Nymex crude rose modestly. Gold futures eased to US$3,387.40, and industrial metals like copper and aluminium saw mild losses. Iron ore futures saw a small rebound, climbing 0.2% to US$94.33 after five days of decline. 

Currency Check 

The Australian dollar firmed slightly to US64.75 cents, buoyed by expectations of a rate move and a softer greenback. The euro advanced to US$1.1495, while the yen weakened further to JPY145.45. 


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