Can the ASX 200 Rise as Alphabet and Tesla Rattle Wall Street? (23 July 2026)

Highlights

• Australian shares are expected to open higher despite a softer finish across the S&P 500 and Nasdaq.
• Alphabet and Tesla weakened after earnings as investors scrutinised profit margins, technology spending and elevated valuations.
• Rising oil and gold prices may support ASX-listed energy and mining companies, although inflation risks remain in focus.

Australian shares are expected to begin Thursdays session on a stronger footing even as Wall Street loses momentum following earnings updates from Alphabet and Tesla.

Positive futures indicate the local market could rise at the opening bell, supported by strength across commodity-linked sectors and selected semiconductor stocks. The contrasting setup reflects the resources-heavy composition of the Australian market, which may benefit from firmer energy and precious-metal prices even as technology weakness weighs on US benchmarks.

The ASX 200 will also be influenced by Australias June labour market report, the latest company updates and the European Central Banks policy decision. Together, these events could shape expectations around interest rates, inflation and economic resilience.

Why did Wall Street lose momentum?

Major US benchmarks finished slightly lower after giving back their early gains.

Weakness across several large technology companies weighed on the broader market, while rising crude prices pushed bond yields higher and revived concerns that inflation could remain elevated.

The Nasdaq Composite underperformed as investors reduced exposure to communication-services and consumer-discretionary companies. Smaller companies also faced pressure as rising borrowing-cost expectations affected sentiment towards businesses that are more dependent on financing conditions.

Energy, utilities and materials were among the stronger areas of the US market. This sector divergence showed that investors were not abandoning equities entirely but were rotating towards industries considered more likely to benefit from commodity strength and defensive demand.

Alphabet delivers growth but shares retreat

Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOGL) reported another strong period of revenue growth, helped by accelerating demand across Google Cloud.

Cloud activity remained one of the most closely watched areas of the result as businesses continued increasing their use of artificial intelligence infrastructure, data processing and enterprise software services.

Despite the encouraging headline growth, Alphabet shares moved lower in extended trading. The reaction suggested investors were evaluating more than revenue performance alone.

Capital expenditure, the cost of developing artificial intelligence products and the sustainability of current growth rates remain important considerations. Investors are increasingly asking whether expanding cloud and AI revenue will translate into sufficient long-term returns to justify substantial infrastructure investment.

The response also demonstrated how difficult it can be for highly valued technology companies to exceed already elevated market expectations.

Tesla revenue rises as margins draw attention

Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) also reported stronger revenue supported by vehicle deliveries, but weaker profitability and pressure on operating margins overshadowed the headline result.

The electric-vehicle manufacturer continues navigating intense competition, changing pricing conditions and heavy investment across autonomous driving, artificial intelligence and new technologies.

Tesla shares declined after the earnings release as investors focused on the gap between revenue growth and profit performance.

For the wider market, the result may influence sentiment towards electric-vehicle manufacturers, battery companies and other high-growth businesses whose valuations rely on expectations of substantial future earnings.

Australian lithium and battery-related stocks may therefore remain sensitive to how global investors interpret Teslas demand commentary and margin performance.

Oil reaches a fresh short-term high

Oil prices advanced again as military tensions involving the United States and Iran continued to raise concerns about supply routes through the Strait of Hormuz.

The strategic waterway remains critical to global energy trade. Any disruption could affect the movement of crude oil and refined products, placing upward pressure on energy costs.

The latest escalation included further US strikes and warnings from both Washington and Tehran about potential attacks on infrastructure.

For Australian investors, stronger oil prices may support companies such as Woodside Energy Group (ASX:WDS), Santos (ASX:STO) and Beach Energy (ASX:BPT).

However, rising crude prices are not uniformly positive for the market. Airlines, transport companies, manufacturers and consumer-facing businesses may face higher costs if elevated energy prices persist.

The inflationary effect could also reduce expectations of near-term interest-rate relief.

Gold and mining stocks could support the ASX

Gold prices strengthened during the overnight session as investors sought assets traditionally viewed as defensive during geopolitical uncertainty.

The move may place ASX-listed gold producers including Northern Star Resources (ASX:NST), Evolution Mining (ASX:EVN) and Newmont Corporation (ASX:NEM) in focus.

Overseas exchange-traded funds linked to gold, silver, copper and uranium miners also moved higher, providing a supportive global lead for Australian resource companies.

BHP Group (ASX:BHP), Rio Tinto (ASX:RIO) and Fortescue (ASX:FMG) could remain active as investors balance stronger commodity-sector sentiment against mixed signals from the global economy.

Copper weakened in the underlying commodity market despite gains across some mining equities, suggesting investors may remain selective rather than broadly optimistic about every resources company.

Macquarie Group enters the spotlight

Macquarie Group (ASX:MQG) is expected to attract attention following its quarterly trading update and leadership announcement.

The financial-services group reported differing conditions across its operating divisions. Banking, financial services and commodities-related activities provided support, while asset-management performance faced a more challenging comparison.

Macquarie also announced a planned leadership transition, with its current managing director preparing to retire and an internal executive appointed as successor.

The market may assess whether the transition changes the groups strategic direction, capital allocation priorities or divisional growth plans.

Investors will also monitor commentary surrounding margins, assets under management and the performance of its markets-facing businesses.

James Hardie lifts its expectations

James Hardie Industries (ASX:JHX) may also be closely watched after raising its guidance for the opening quarter.

The building-products company cited better-than-expected demand across its siding and trim operations.

The update may offer a positive signal for construction-related activity, although investors will likely examine whether stronger sales can be maintained as housing markets respond to elevated borrowing costs.

Building-materials companies remain exposed to residential construction activity, renovation spending, input costs and consumer confidence.

James Hardies improved guidance may therefore support sentiment across selected industrial and construction-related companies at the opening.

Australias jobs report becomes the key local test

Australias June labour force report is scheduled to be released during the session and may become the most influential domestic event of the day.

The market broadly expects the unemployment rate to remain steady. A stronger result could demonstrate continued economic resilience but may also encourage expectations that interest rates will remain restrictive.

A weaker report could reduce some inflation concerns while raising questions about household spending and economic momentum.

The labour data may have a particularly strong influence on the major banks, retailers, property companies and other interest-rate-sensitive sectors.

Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX:CBA), National Australia Bank (ASX:NAB), Westpac Banking Corporation (ASX:WBC) and ANZ Group Holdings (ASX:ANZ) could respond as bond yields and monetary-policy expectations adjust.

Technology shares face a mixed global lead

The overseas technology lead was not entirely negative.

Semiconductor and data-centre infrastructure funds finished higher, while cloud computing and cybersecurity-related investments declined.

This split suggests investors continue favouring companies with direct exposure to computing infrastructure while becoming more cautious about software businesses with demanding valuations.

Australian companies such as NEXTDC (ASX:NXT), WiseTech Global (ASX:WTC) and Xero (ASX:XRO) may respond to this mixed backdrop.

NEXTDC could benefit from ongoing interest in data centres and artificial intelligence infrastructure, while software-focused companies may remain more exposed to the post-earnings weakness across major US technology names.

Tariffs add another source of uncertainty

Global markets are also assessing potential changes to US tariff policy.

Fresh levies on imports could affect international trade, supply chains and corporate costs. Pharmaceutical tariffs are another area of concern because generic medicines supplied to the United States are produced across several major international markets.

For Australia, the direct effect may vary by industry, but wider trade tensions could influence commodity demand, currency markets and global business investment.

The Australian dollar weakened modestly during the overnight session as investors balanced commodity strength against a firmer US dollar and shifting interest-rate expectations.

What could drive todays ASX session?

Energy and gold companies may provide early support if commodity prices retain their gains.

Macquarie Group and James Hardie could influence company-specific trading following their updates, while Paladin Energy (ASX:PDN) may attract interest following changes in external market assessments.

Technology stocks could deliver mixed performance as investors react to Alphabet and Teslas earnings and await further results from the US reporting season.

The labour force report remains the main domestic risk event. Its implications for the Reserve Bank of Australia could determine whether the market holds its expected opening advance or loses momentum later in the session.

The Australian sharemarket appears positioned for a stronger opening despite weakness across the S&P 500 and Nasdaq.

Commodity strength, particularly across oil and gold, may support the ASXs large energy and mining sectors. However, the same rise in energy prices is increasing inflation concerns and placing upward pressure on global bond yields.

Alphabet and Teslas post-earnings declines also show that strong revenue growth may not be enough when investors remain concerned about profitability, margins and the cost of artificial intelligence investment.

Australias labour market data, major company updates and continuing geopolitical developments are likely to determine whether the ASX can convert its positive futures signal into a sustained market advance.