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Highlights
- Australia’s LNG exports show strong reliance on Asian markets
- Spot market share of LNG exports climbs to 25% in 2024
- Long-term LNG contract volumes projected to decline beyond 2030
The Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA) has rolled out a powerful new resource for tracking Australia's natural gas and liquefied natural gas (LNG) flows. Dubbed the Australian Gas and LNG Tracker, this interactive tool brings detailed insight into export infrastructure, demand, utilisation, and destination markets.
Drawing on data from reputable industry sources, including Kpler and the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO), the tracker highlights key dynamics in Australia’s gas sector. Between 2021 and 2024, utilisation rates of LNG export facilities have consistently remained above 90%, illustrating robust demand even amid underperformance from sites such as the Gladstone LNG plant and the Prelude FLNG facility, part of Shell’s operations (ASX:SHEL).
One standout insight from the 2024 data is the geographical concentration of export destinations. China emerged as Australia’s top LNG customer, accounting for 33% of exports, followed by Japan (32%), South Korea (15%), and Taiwan (10%). These four nations made up a striking 90% of all LNG exports, reflecting Australia’s reliance on a handful of strategic trade partners.
LNG exports to China grew 8% in 2024, continuing a rebound from 2022’s contraction. Japan, previously Australia’s top buyer, saw LNG import declines of 6% and 10% in 2023 and 2024, respectively. South Korea posted a 12% rise in imports, while Taiwan recorded a modest 1% increase. Meanwhile, exports to other global markets collectively dropped by 14%.
Spot LNG exports—those not under long-term contracts—have gained traction, comprising 25% of the total LNG shipped in 2024. This trend reflects increased exposure to volatile global pricing and could influence domestic supply pressures, as Australia anticipates supply constraints in coming years.
Analysts note that while contract volumes are expected to remain steady through 2030, a sharp decline is likely between 2030 and 2040. As existing agreements phase out, the potential for redirecting some of the supply to the domestic market may open up, especially if utilisation of LNG export plants eases.
This development carries implications for several ASX200 stocks operating in the LNG space, including energy giants involved in long-term export contracts.
The IEEFA’s tool stands out as a valuable asset for tracking the complex landscape of Australia’s gas flows, presenting updated analysis twice a year to support informed market monitoring. As global energy dynamics evolve, keeping an eye on export utilisation, contract trends, and destination shifts will be crucial for market participants and stakeholders alike.
