Highlights
The Australian share market closed at a record high, with the S&P/ASX 200 index gaining 56 points, or 0.66%, topping its previous peak from June 11. Unlike earlier sessions where strength often faded, this rally was decisive, with the index finishing near its session highs. A broad-based advance saw 10 of the 11 sectors in the green and nearly 70% of constituents ending higher.
Market Drivers: Materials and Real Estate in Focus
The materials sector provided strong tailwinds, rising 1.83% amid a continued rebound from recent lows. Leading the charge was South32 (ASX:S32), surging 5.0%, and Fortescue (ASX:FMG), climbing 3.8%. Investors appear to be showing increased interest in resource stocks amid stabilizing commodity prices and an improving macroeconomic outlook.
The real estate sector also saw renewed interest, gaining 1.77%. Scentre Group (ASX:SCG), a major retail REIT, stood out with a 2.7% rise, reaching levels last seen in September 2024. Expectations of multiple rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of Australia before year-end are believed to be bolstering REIT valuations, giving the sector fresh momentum.
Sector Rotation and Valuation Concerns
While resource and real estate names advanced, the technology sector saw a pullback, dropping 0.73%. This mirrored a global trend where capital is moving away from last financial year’s high-performing tech names. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.91% overnight, while the Nasdaq declined 0.82%, reflecting this shift.
Despite concerns about elevated valuations—with the ASX 200 now trading around 19 times forward earnings, well above its long-term average—market sentiment appears to be buoyed by clarity on potential rate cuts. Interestingly, financials remained flat at +0.02%, highlighting the strength in non-traditional sectors driving the rally.
Economic Backdrop: Mixed Signals
On the macro front, Australian retail sales rose 0.2% in May, falling short of expectations for a 0.4% increase. Gains were limited to discretionary categories like clothing and department stores, while food-related spending contracted for the first time in 2025.
Meanwhile, the AI Group Industry Index showed continued weakness in industrial activity. However, easing supply-side pressures—evidenced by lower input costs and wages—may support a continued decline in inflation, potentially paving the way for rate adjustments.
As global trade negotiations continue to evolve and with major legislative developments in the US creating potential ripple effects, investors are navigating both opportunities and volatility. Still, the ASX 200’s latest milestone highlights growing optimism across several key sectors.