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Highlights
Northern Star Resources (ASX:NST) shares dip following FY26 production and cost outlook
Capital spending guidance exceeds expectations, triggering market reaction
Planned ramp-up for FY26 may soften sentiment, but short-term pressure remains
Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX:NST), a major player on the ASX 50 and ASX 200 indices, faced a sharp decline in share price following the release of its financial year 2026 (FY26) guidance. The company operates within the gold mining sector and its outlook, particularly regarding output volumes and expenditure, triggered negative sentiment across the trading session.
The guidance announcement was met with cautious market response as production figures and capital requirements diverged from previous expectations.
Production Forecast Falls Short of Market Consensus
Northern Star’s FY26 production forecast outlined a range that came in below consensus expectations. This came despite earlier revisions in production figures following a guidance adjustment during the March quarter. While the company flagged a phased ramp-up throughout the year, the initial production outlook indicated a slower start, with operations expected to be impacted by scheduled plant shutdowns.
The company anticipates stronger performance in the latter part of FY26 as development projects reach key completion stages.
Elevated Cost and Capital Expenditure Guidance Triggers Sell-Off
In addition to softer production estimates, Northern Star’s cost forecast, including all-in sustaining costs, came in above market estimates. The company attributed higher expense figures to inflationary pressures across the mining sector, as well as increased development activity to underpin long-term production stability.
Capital expenditure guidance also exceeded expectations, with significant allocations set aside for the ongoing Kalgoorlie Consolidated Gold Mines (KCGM) mill expansion. These figures prompted concern over short-term cash flow impacts, despite the company’s emphasis on long-term strategic investment.
Operational Update Highlights Planned Ramp-Up
The company’s operational update confirmed a staggered production ramp-up across FY26, with lower output anticipated in the early quarters. Northern Star expects a stronger close to the financial year as critical infrastructure and expansion projects become operational.
While the longer-term outlook reflects future growth efforts, the updated figures have put immediate focus on cost management and delivery timelines.
Market Reacts to Revised Outlook Amid Broader Sector Moves
Northern Star's latest update places it under renewed scrutiny within the gold mining segment of the ASX 100. With other miners also responding to shifting economic conditions and inflationary cost structures, the company’s revised FY26 guidance has contributed to heightened market caution within the broader resource sector.
