Capricorn Metals Boosts Gold Reserves to 5.24 Million Ounces with Karlawinda and Mt Gibson Projects Driving Major Expansion

10 min read | July 27, 2026 09:15 AM AEST | By Anjali Anand

Capricorn Metals Limited (ASX:CMM) has reported a remarkable 33% rise in group ore reserves, reaching 5.24 million ounces of gold, alongside a 29% increase in mineral resources to 8.66 million ounces. The Western Australia-based gold producer’s dual-asset portfolio—featuring the operational Karlawinda Gold Project in the Pilbara and the near-term development Mt Gibson Gold Project in the Murchison region—has achieved strong reserve replacement and conversion, advancing the company toward mid-tier gold producer status. Announced on 27 July 2026, this reserve upgrade supports a robust growth trajectory targeting production exceeding 400,000 ounces annually within 2.5 years of Mt Gibson commencing operations.

Key Points

  • Capricorn Metals Limited (ASX:CMM) operates wholly owned assets in Western Australia: the Karlawinda Gold Project and the Mt Gibson Gold Project.
  • As of 31 March 2026, group ore reserves rose 33% to 5.24 million ounces of gold, with mineral resources increasing 29% to 8.66 million ounces.
  • Karlawinda reserves surged 32% to 1.57 million ounces following successful drilling; Mt Gibson’s open pit reserves climbed 21% to 3.31 million ounces, complemented by a maiden underground reserve of 365,000 ounces.
  • The Mt Gibson prefeasibility study forecasts 3.5 million ounces of gold production over a 19.25-year mine life, with an all-in sustaining cost of A$1,870 per ounce, pre-tax free cash flow of A$12.0 billion, and an NPV of A$6.1 billion.
  • Capricorn aims to begin site development at Mt Gibson in Q2FY27, with Karlawinda expansion slated for completion in Q1FY27.

Karlawinda Ore Reserves Increase 32% Following Targeted Down-Dip Drilling Success

Capricorn’s Karlawinda Gold Project in Western Australia’s Pilbara region has achieved a significant 32% increase in ore reserves to 1.57 million ounces of gold, driven by successful recent drilling campaigns that enhanced the reserve base at the company’s flagship asset. The reserve upgrade incorporates drilling results targeting resources immediately down-dip of the 2024 reserve pit design, boosting both the resource estimate and conversion to mineable reserves. This growth highlights the project’s ongoing geological potential and validates Capricorn’s exploration and reserve definition strategy.

As of 31 March 2026, Karlawinda’s ore reserves stand at 76.4 million tonnes grading 0.6 grams per tonne gold, up from 1.20 million ounces reported in 2025 (net of mining depletion since 30 June 2025). The mineral resource estimate at Karlawinda also increased substantially by 48% to 2.99 million ounces, supporting a mine life exceeding 10 years at the expected 150,000-ounce-per-annum production rate after the Karlawinda expansion project’s commissioning in Q1FY27. This reserve and resource growth underpins sustainable near-term production and cash flow generation, supporting Capricorn’s development goals.

Mt Gibson Underground Mining Adds Maiden Reserve of 365,000 Ounces

The Mt Gibson Gold Project, Capricorn’s near-term development asset in Western Australia’s Murchison region, has defined a maiden underground ore reserve of 365,000 ounces from 5.0 million tonnes grading 2.3 grams per tonne gold. This inaugural underground reserve, alongside a 21% increase in open pit reserves to 3.31 million ounces, brings Mt Gibson’s total ore reserve to 3.67 million ounces, confirming the economic viability of combined underground and open pit mining operations. The underground reserve milestone de-risks the project by validating subsurface mineralisation assumptions in the prefeasibility study and supports production growth from underground mining in the early operational years.

Mt Gibson’s underground mineral resource estimate has risen to 9.6 million tonnes grading 2.9 grams per tonne gold, totaling 886,000 ounces, with 707,000 ounces classified as Indicated. The underground mineralisation’s higher grade compared to the open pit average of 0.9 grams per tonne offers operational flexibility and economic incentive to prioritise underground extraction early in the mine life. This resource and reserve base provides a clear path for resource-to-reserve conversion and production growth as Mt Gibson matures, supporting Capricorn’s vision for a long-life, scalable gold operation.

Mt Gibson Prefeasibility Study Projects 260,000 Ounces Annual Production and A$6.1 Billion Pre-Tax NPV

The updated Mt Gibson prefeasibility study, released alongside the reserve announcement on 27 July 2026, presents a strong economic case centered on concurrent underground and open pit mining. It forecasts steady-state gold production averaging 260,000 ounces per annum during the four full years of underground mining, with total life-of-mine production of 3.5 million ounces over a 19.25-year span. Following underground commencement, the company projects an average production of 190,000 ounces per annum over 18 years, demonstrating sustained mid-tier production capability.

Economic projections include a pre-tax free cash flow of A$12.0 billion over the mine life and a post-capex pre-tax net present value of A$6.1 billion at a 7.5% discount rate, providing strong investor confidence. The all-in sustaining cost is estimated at A$1,870 per ounce, positioning Mt Gibson competitively on the global gold cost curve. Capital expenditures total A$345 million for plant and infrastructure plus A$129 million for 15 months of pre-production mining. Importantly, the study forecasts a rapid pre-tax payback period of 14 months, signaling swift recovery of development capital and appealing to equity investors and lenders.

Conservative Gold Price Assumptions Ensure Reserve Optimization and Downside Protection

Capricorn employed conservative gold price assumptions during reserve optimization, offering a significant margin of safety relative to current spot prices and reflecting prudent reserve definition. Most reserve pit optimizations at Karlawinda and Mt Gibson were conducted at A$2,600 per ounce—over A$3,100 below the spot price at announcement. For Mt Gibson’s Enterprise, Hornet, Orion North, and Orion South pits, representing 2.58 million ounces of reserves, a more conservative A$2,200 per ounce price was used, exceeding a A$3,500 discount to spot.

This cautious approach provides robust downside protection for stakeholders, ensuring reserve estimates and economic forecasts remain viable even if gold prices decline significantly. The large buffer between optimization and spot prices instills confidence that reserves will remain economically mineable under various commodity price scenarios. For mineral resource estimation, Capricorn applied a gold price of A$2,800 per ounce, reinforcing the conservative methodology and mitigating exposure to price volatility.

Group Production Outlook Targets Over 400,000 Ounces Annually as Mt Gibson Reaches Steady State

Capricorn’s reserve upgrade and Mt Gibson prefeasibility study outline a clear path to group gold production exceeding 400,000 ounces annually within 2.5 years of Mt Gibson’s operational start—a transformative increase in production scale. Initially, Mt Gibson is expected to produce 160,000 ounces per annum from open pit mining, rising to 260,000 ounces per annum within three years as underground mining ramps up. Combined with Karlawinda’s sustained 150,000-ounce-per-annum output post-expansion, Capricorn is positioned to maintain mid-to-upper tier gold producer status.

This growth supports Capricorn’s strategic positioning as a long-life, multi-asset gold producer with ongoing reserve replacement potential and commodity price leverage. Karlawinda’s mine life exceeds 10 years after expansion, while Mt Gibson’s mine life spans 19.25 years, creating a portfolio with substantial longevity capable of supporting dividends and capital returns. The reserve profile and production guidance highlight Capricorn’s leading mid-tier mine life status in the Australian gold sector, a key differentiator attracting investor attention.

Federal Environmental Permit Secured; Western Australia State Permitting Advances Toward Q2FY27 Development Start

Mt Gibson has reached a critical regulatory milestone by obtaining the federal environmental permit, mitigating a major approval risk for project development. Concurrently, state-level permitting in Western Australia is progressing, enabling Capricorn to target site development commencement in Q2FY27. This permitting schedule aligns with the company’s capital and operational plans, providing stakeholders with clarity on development timelines and cash flow inflection points. Securing federal approval ahead of state permits reflects effective regulatory engagement and reduces execution risk during the transition from planning to construction.

These regulatory achievements and targeted Q2FY27 development start define a clear path to production and free cash flow generation at Mt Gibson. The timing is pivotal to Capricorn’s capital allocation strategy, supporting investment decisions by equity and debt providers and establishing a realistic timeline for capital returns. Precious metals investors are expected to closely monitor Western Australia permitting progress and Capricorn’s adherence to the Q2FY27 development target as key value milestones.

Mineral Resource Estimate Climbs 29% to 8.66 Million Ounces, Confirming Long-Term Growth Potential

Capricorn’s group mineral resource estimate increased 29% to 8.66 million ounces of gold as of 31 March 2026, encompassing 348.9 million tonnes grading 0.8 grams per tonne gold. This growth reflects both mining depletion adjustments at Karlawinda and genuine resource definition and conversion gains across both assets. Karlawinda’s mineral resource expanded 48% to 2.99 million ounces from 160.0 million tonnes grading 0.6 grams per tonne, reinforcing exploration potential and long-term reserve replacement confidence. Mt Gibson’s mineral resource grew 25% to 5.67 million ounces, including 4.78 million ounces in open pit and 890,000 ounces underground.

This resource profile highlights the geological prospectivity of Capricorn’s core assets and establishes a strong foundation for ongoing reserve conversion and mine life extension as development and production advance. Mt Gibson’s underground mineral resource, with 707,000 ounces classified as Indicated, offers near-term upgrade potential to ore reserve status, supporting the company’s underground mine development investment case. The group resource of 8.66 million ounces, net of 5.24 million ounces of ore reserves, presents substantial exploration and development upside, appealing to investors seeking exposure to gold companies with exploration-driven growth alongside established production.

Capricorn’s Dual-Asset Portfolio Positions Company for Sustained Mid-Tier Gold Producer Status

Operating within Australia’s geologically rich and stable gold sector, Capricorn Metals’ portfolio of wholly owned assets—the operating Karlawinda project and near-term development Mt Gibson project—both in Western Australia, offers geographic and operational advantages. Shared supply chains, workforce development, and regional infrastructure utilization enhance efficiency. Both projects are situated in established mining jurisdictions with recognized permitting frameworks and stakeholder engagement processes. This dual-asset strategy provides production diversity and revenue resilience compared to single-asset developers.

Capricorn’s strategic positioning aligns with investor preferences for mid-tier gold producers characterized by long mine lives, multi-decade production visibility, operating leverage to gold prices, and pathways for reserve replacement and growth. With a reserve base of 5.24 million ounces and projected production exceeding 400,000 ounces annually, the company fits credible mid-tier profiles, typically commanding premium valuations over junior explorers and comparable to major diversified miners. Mt Gibson’s A$6.1 billion pre-tax NPV and A$12.0 billion life-of-mine free cash flow forecasts underpin a compelling capital value creation story attracting equity and debt market interest ahead of development.

Executive Chairman Mark Clark Highlights Production Growth and Long Mine Life as Key Drivers of Shareholder Value

Mark Clark, Capricorn’s Executive Chairman, stated: "The strong growth in Capricorn gold reserves to over 5 million ounces underpins long mine lives at both Karlawinda and Mt Gibson along with compelling and deliverable growth in our gold production profile to over 400,000 ounces per annum within 2.5 years of commencement of operations at Mt Gibson." This statement encapsulates the company’s strategic focus on reserve expansion, production scale increase, and sustainable cash generation.

Clark’s remarks emphasize confidence in the geological and operational sustainability of Capricorn’s portfolio and management’s commitment to execution. The target of over 400,000 ounces annual production within 2.5 years of Mt Gibson’s start provides a clear, measurable milestone for investors to evaluate performance. Combined with long mine life assets, this production outlook forms a compelling investment thesis centered on sustained earnings and capital returns. Investors will watch Capricorn’s ability to meet these timelines and targets as detailed in the company update and prefeasibility study.


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