AUS
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IND
Australian power sector is mostly coal driven, though the share of coal in total electricity generation fell from approximately 80% in 1992-93 to ~60% in 2018. Black coal contributed 46.1%, brown coal 13.8%, natural gas 19.2%, renewables 18.9% and other sources 2% in total generation of 261.4 TWh for the year.
The coal-fired generation contribution in NSW, VIC and QLD regions was 79%, 76% and 75.1%, respectively, in 2018. Natural gas was the major source of electricity in NT while regions like SA and TAS interestingly showed stance towards other renewables and hydro power, with a share of 51.2% and 84.2%, respectively, in total electricity generation as shown below.
Australian electricity generation fuel mix
Also, it is worth mentioning that the electricity generation has increased by 5% in last ten years whereas renewable generation surged by 140% from 18.6TWh in FY09 to 44.91TWh in FY18, with 36% coming from hydro followed by wind 34%, solar 22% and bioenergy 8%.
Does that Mean Renewables Have Increased More in Proportion to Total Electricity Generation?
Well not exactly, if we see the share of renewables in total electricity generation. Forty years back, the share of renewable in total generation was 17% and even now after so many years, the ratio remains the same. However, the ration dwindled to 8%-9% during the period from FY98 to FY10. The total electricity generation during the period (40 years) increased by 202% from 86.5TWh to 261.1TWh and renewable energy surged by 212% from 14.3TWh to 44.6TWh.
The maximum boom in renewable sector has been witnessed in the last ten years due to shift in global perspective towards clean energy, increasing electricity prices, falling prices of solar panels and evolving policy landscape. For instance, in 2009, Commonwealth Government launched a grant of $1.5 billion to support four large-scale solar projects and leading to realisation of long-distance interconnections between solar or wind power plants and the grid favouring the renewable energy growth in the country.
At the same time, demand for power was so high that the renewable segment alone couldn’t cater to the consumer need, hence leading to a surge in electricity generation from fossil fuel.
Australian electricity generation
Source: Australian Energy Statistics
Having said that the proportionate growth between total electricity generation and renewable generation can be easily gauged from the depicted graph of Australian electricity generation, where renewable generation surged post FY08 and the growth of electricity generation from coal or fossil fuel flattened from FY08 in comparison to previous growth.
How Was the Growth of Electricity Generation from Different Renewable Sources?
If we talk about the past 26 years’ performance to FY18, then hydro power witnessed a fall of 4% from 16953GWh in FY93 to 16284.9GWh in FY18. Whereas, wind power share increased tremendously from 4GWh in FY94 to 15,174.4GWh in FY18 followed by solar power from 13.3GWh in FY93 to 9,929.9GWh in FY18 and bioenergy from 670GWh to 3517.7GWh during FY93-FY18, respectively.
However, as discussed above, in last ten years, renewable sector witnessed the maximum boom due to huge contribution coming from solar sector followed by wind. Solar generation increased by 6261% from 156.1GWh in FY09 to FY18 and 297% in case of wind from 3823.8GWh in FY09 to FY18 followed by hydro (+37%) and bioenergy (+26%) during the same interval.
In FY18, the share of respective renewable sources in total renewable generation was hydro (36%), wind (34%), solar (22%) and bioenergy (8%).
Australian electricity generation from renewable sources
Renewable Energy Target in Australia
In 2019, Australia met its 2020 large-scale Renewable Energy Target (RET) of 33,000 gigawatt-hours (GWh). For the same, around $24 billion had been invested in the renewable energy.
Having said that, Australia recently increased its renewable energy target by 1GW considering 2019 moderate pace of larger-scale renewable projects where ~4GW of new capacity is anticipated to be accredited for the year which is up from 3.5GW in 2020.
As per the Clean Energy Regulator (CER), end-September 2019 witnessed 7.3 GW of accredited capacity for the year, which was up from 6.4GW as on 30 August 2019. Of the total, 4.3GW of large-scale renewable projects was fully financed and under construction with the remaining 1.6GW subject to PPAs (power purchase agreements).
Renewable Energy Upcoming Projects
As of 20 February 2020, there are around 95 upcoming projects in Australia which have not commissioned yet but reached the financial closure stage. The projects are anticipated to be worth $20.8 billion with a renewable energy capacity of 11,751 MW and likely to generate 14,946 direct jobs.
Interesting Read: Australian Energy Retail Market – How Ordinary Shares Has Performed?
Now let’s gauge through the stock performance of few renewable companies listed on ASX. For the same, five ASX-listed stocks have been chosen randomly and based on market capitalisation - IFN, NEW, WND, GNX and KPO.
Infigen Energy (ASX: IFN) – The six-month return of the stock was noted at negative 38.46%. The stock closed at $0.435 on 20 March 2020 with a P/E ratio of 8.33x and EPS of $0.048. Its 52 weeks high and 52 weeks low stood at $0.81 and $0.4, respectively, and the Company had a market cap of $384.86 million.
New Energy Solar (ASX: NEW) – The stock closed at $1.040 on 20 March 2020 with a negative EPS of $0.012 and a six-month return of negative 17.32%. Its 52 weeks high and 52 weeks low stood at $1.415 and $1.0, respectively, and the Company had a market cap of $371.01 million.
Windlab Limited (ASX: WND) – The stock’s six-month return stood at positive 2.41%. The stock closed at $0.835 on 20 March 2020 with a negative EPS of $0.170. Its 52 weeks high and 52 weeks low stood at $1.12 and $0.64, respectively, and the Company had a market cap of $57.98 million.
Genex Power Limited (ASX: GNX) – The six-month return of the stock was noted at negative 64.71%. The stock closed at $0.1 on 20 March 2020 with a negative EPS of $0.033. Its 52 weeks high and 52 weeks low stood at $0.29 and $0.09, respectively, and the Company had a market cap of $36.17 million.
Kalina Power Limited (ASX: KPO) –The stock closed at $0.019 on 20 March 2020 with a negative EPS of $0.007. The stock’s six-month return was noted at negative 25%. Its 52 weeks high and 52 weeks low stood at $0.064 and $0.01, respectively, and the Company had a market cap of $17.2 million.
