Bavarian Nordic stock soars over 15% as WHO declares Mpox a global health emergency

Shares of Bavarian Nordic, a Danish vaccine manufacturer, surged over 15% on Thursday following the World Health Organization’s (WHO) declaration of Mpox as a public health emergency.

This announcement has drawn significant attention to the Hellerup-based company, which, alongside Emergent BioSolutions Inc., is one of the only two firms with a vaccine endorsed by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) for combating the Mpox (also known as monkeypox) virus.

Emergent BioSolutions also saw a stock rise of over 10% in response.

The WHO’s declaration reverberated globally, particularly impacting Tokyo-based Precision System Science Co., which focuses on vaccine commercialization, with its shares skyrocketing 40% on the same day.

Can Bavarian Nordic meet the rising demand?

In response to the heightened demand, Bavarian Nordic has assured that it can ramp up production to meet the urgent need for Mpox vaccines.

CEO Paul Chaplin confirmed that the company is prepared to supply up to 2 million doses by the end of this year and has plans to increase production to 10 million doses by the end of 2025.

However, he emphasized the need for swift action from global health authorities: “We have the capacity, but we need people to start placing orders pretty fast.”

Currently, Wall Street analysts maintain an “overweight” rating on Bavarian Nordic stock, reflecting optimism about the company’s ability to scale its operations and meet global demand.

Challenges over vaccine access remain

Despite Bavarian Nordic’s reassurances, concerns about vaccine availability and distribution remain. 

Brian Ferguson, an associate professor at the University of Cambridge, expressed skepticism regarding the global supply of Mpox vaccines, particularly in light of the recent outbreak in Congo that has already spread to neighboring countries. 

“Access to the available vaccines is a significant concern,” Ferguson noted, “as they are not getting to where they are needed.”

The WHO’s designation of Mpox as a “public health emergency of international concern” underscores the severity of the outbreak, calling for accelerated measures to contain the virus. 

The organization is actively collaborating with affected countries to ensure vaccine distribution, but challenges persist. 

Jimmy Whitworth, an emeritus professor at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, highlighted the potential obstacles, stating that “cost and availability of the vaccine will be a significant challenge.”

Whitworth estimated that around 10 million doses would be necessary to control the current outbreak, emphasizing the urgency of the situation.

While the WHO’s declaration has brought renewed focus and urgency to the situation, questions about vaccine access and distribution remain unresolved. 

For investors, Bavarian Nordic’s ability to scale production and navigate these challenges will be critical in determining the company’s future performance in the market.

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