AUS
NZ
UK
CA
USA
FRA
GER
ESP
ITA
NLD
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IND
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RUS
CHN
UAE
Highlights:
- GDP falls 0.1% in October: Declines in manufacturing, mining, and construction output drive contraction.
- Service sector remains flat: Growth in telecoms and legal firms offsets weakness in retail and hospitality.
- Year-on-year growth slows: GDP increases 1.3% annually, below expectations of 1.6%.
The UK economy witnessed an unexpected contraction in October, with gross domestic product (GDP) declining by 0.1% month-on-month, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS). This follows a similar 0.1% drop in September, reflecting continued economic challenges across various sectors.
Sectoral Declines Drive Contraction
The contraction was primarily attributed to a 0.6% decline in production output, driven by downturns in manufacturing and mining and quarrying activities. Construction output also dropped by 0.4%, reversing a modest 0.1% growth recorded in September. Meanwhile, the service sector remained stagnant, with no notable growth despite gains in telecoms, logistics, and legal services.
Year-on-Year and Quarterly Performance
Year-on-year GDP growth stood at 1.3% in October, falling short of market expectations for a 1.6% increase. Over the three months to October, the economy saw a marginal 0.1% improvement, underscoring the subdued recovery momentum.
Insights from the ONS and Economists
ONS Director Liz McKeown highlighted the uneven performance across sectors, noting, "Oil and gas extraction, pubs and restaurants, and retail all had weak months, partially offset by growth in telecoms, logistics, and legal firms."
Economic experts attributed the downturn to a mix of domestic and international factors. The National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) pointed to geopolitical uncertainties and concerns stemming from October’s Autumn Budget as contributing factors.
“A weakening export climate amid rising global policy uncertainties and declining business confidence, exacerbated by the impact of recently announced budget measures, raises concerns about sustaining the growth momentum,” NIESR stated.
A “Wait and See” Economy
George Lagarias, economist at Forvis Mazars, described the economy as being in a state of limbo. “There’s an overall ‘wait and see’ feeling, neither upbeat nor downbeat, ahead of trade developments in the next few months,” he commented, reflecting the cautious sentiment across businesses and consumers.
Looking Ahead
The economic outlook remains clouded by uncertainties, including global policy challenges and the domestic fiscal environment. While some sectors, such as telecoms and logistics, show resilience, the overall picture points to a fragile recovery. Policymakers and businesses alike will closely monitor developments in trade, budgetary impacts, and global economic conditions as they navigate the months ahead.
