Weather key to O'Brien stablemates in Cup

October 31, 2022 02:01 PM AEDT | By AAPNEWS

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Diplomatic trainer Danny O'Brien's pick of his two Melbourne Cup runners will come down to the accuracy of a 24-hour weather forecast.

O'Brien is certain the 2019 winner Vow And Declare is going as well as ever and is just as adamant stablemate Young Werther has been overlooked as a genuine chance.

"As it stands I can't go either way. They're both live chances," O'Brien told RSN.

But he is fearful rain will conspire against Vow And Declare's history-making attempt on Australia's greatest race.

Vow And Declare will be trying to join Archer, Peter Pan, Rain Lover, Think Big and Makybe Diva as the sixth multiple winner.

Now a seven-year-old, Vow And Declare hasn't been able to win in 14 starts since his Flemington triumph but O'Brien says he was taken by the stayer's lead-up run in the Caulfield Cup.

However, the threat of a rain-affected track remains real and O'Brien said it would work against Vow And Declare.

"I definitely don't think he is a heavy tracker," O'Brien said.

Young Werther would likely become the stable's top pick if the track deteriorates.

"A lot of will depend on what happens between 3pm on Monday and 3pm on Tuesday," O'Brien said.

"But if it got really wet I think Young Werther would get through it."

Young Werther has found it hard to win in a 14-start career but he has raced mostly in exclusive company, including the Cox Plate at his most recent appearance.

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