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Summary
- Leaked government advice has indicated that the nation could see more than 85,000 deaths during the second wave of coronavirus
- SAGE report highlighted that fatalities could remain high in the country until March 2021 and significantly go up after Christmas
The UK could see more than 85,000 deaths during the second wave of coronavirus, a leaked government advice shows. Government data shows that there were 23,065 new cases of COVID-19 on Thursday, and in the last one week there were 154,873 cases, which is 13.2% more than the previous seven-day period.
British government advisory body Scientific Advisory Group on Emergencies’ (Sage) report, which got leaked on Wednesday, highlighted that fatalities could remain high in the country until March 2021 and significantly go up after Christmas. The study into the pandemic found out that there are about 96,000 new cases every day and that the outbreak is doubling in size every nine days.
The document, which was out in July, is a forecast but has come as a worthy warning for the government, which is trying to take considerable steps in the face of the Covid-19 pandemic. The Sage report, first leaked to The Spectator magazine, has predicted that there could be 500 or more deaths a day for the next couple of months. It stated that it won’t be “unrealistic” if 25,000 people in the UK would be hospitalised by the end of November — up from about 9,000 now.
In the first wave, the UK has seen 500 or more deaths a day for five weeks, peaking at 1,100 a day.
The document has urged the government to impose stringent restrictions on social gatherings to prevent the spread of the coronavirus. Scientists across the country have urged the government to consider imposing the Tier 3 lockdown by the middle of December.
Government sources added that nearly 7,454 people with COVID-19 are hospitalised in England. As on October 26, the number of Covid patients in north-west England stood at 2,407. This is the highest since 23 April. In north-east England and Yorkshire, the tally is 1,962 at present, which is highest since April 28.
The Covid-19 situation looks to be out of control, given the rise in cases across Britain. On 27 October, the UK government stated that 367 people died within 28 days of testing positive for Covid-19, while another 22,885 cases were confirmed at the lab.
Prime Minister Boris Johnson is facing tremendous pressure from his medical staff to announce a countrywide lockdown to curb the coronavirus cases from spreading. Many analysts and senior figures in the government are insisting on implementing Tier 3 lockdown or something more stringent in a bid to control the cases.
An envoy in the World Health Organisation said coronavirus cases are spreading like wildfire, but the lockdown has slowed the pace in the north of the UK. However, the southern part of the country is witnessing a spike in coronavirus cases.
Due to the uncertain Covid situation, the International Monetary Fund has downgraded its growth forecasts for the British economy for 2020 and 2021, following the surge in cases in the last few weeks.
In its annual assessment of the British economy, which was published on Thursday, IMF has stated that instead of shrinking by 9.8% this year, the British economy would contract by 10.4%. In 2021, it expects the rebound to be weaker than the previous prediction, i.e. 5.7% against 5.9% before.
