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Bitcoin's price, with forecasts suggesting a decline below $54,000, and possibly even $50,000, despite the growing anticipation of an interest rate cut in the United States.
Recent data shows a decrease in global cryptocurrency market capitalization, which fell below the $2 trillion threshold after a 3.46% drop within 24 hours leading up to 10:00 am UTC on September 4. This decline, coupled with a broader sell-off in traditional markets, has caused Bitcoin to drop below the significant $60,000 level.
Alex Kuptsikevich, a senior market analyst at FxPro, indicated that a corrective move to $54,000 is necessary before Bitcoin could experience a reversal. Analysts from Bitfinex also suggested that {Bitcoin} (BTC) might face a correction below $50,000 following a potential interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve. However, they noted that Bitcoin might avoid a severe downturn if macroeconomic conditions improve further.
The prospect of an interest rate cut in the US, expected to be announced at the Federal Reserve's meeting on September 18, is seen as a positive signal for risk assets such as Bitcoin. According to the CME FedWatch tool, there is currently a 59% probability of a 25 basis-point rate cut, with a 41% chance of a 50 basis-point cut.
September has historically been a period of increased volatility for Bitcoin, with average returns showing a decline. CoinGlass data highlights September as the most bearish month, with average returns at -4.69%.
Additionally, recent data indicates a prolonged period of negative outflows from US-based spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which have experienced five consecutive days of net outflows totaling over $287 million as of September 3, according to Farside Investors. Historically, positive inflows into these ETFs have supported Bitcoin's price, contributing to significant increases when inflows are favorable.
The ongoing dynamics, including potential changes in interest rates and ETF inflows, continue to influence Bitcoin's market performance and price volatility.
