Bloomberg LP is set to integrate election odds data from the blockchain-based prediction market Polymarket into its Terminal platform, marking a significant development in the intersection of traditional finance and Web3 technologies. This move reflects the growing significance of prediction markets in assessing political trends and election outcomes.
The integration, announced in an August 29 post by Michael McDonough, Bloomberg's chief economist for financial products, will feature Polymarket’s data alongside other prediction markets and polling services, such as PredictIt. Bloomberg’s Terminal is a leading institutional financial data platform, commanding roughly one-third of the market share in financial data services and serving approximately 350,000 global subscribers.
Polymarket operates on the {Polygon} network and allows users to create and participate in bets on various event outcomes. It employs transparent on-chain data and smart contracts to facilitate transactions and payouts. This platform has become prominent for tracking real-time odds related to U.S. elections. For August, Polymarket reported a monthly trading volume nearing $450 million, and nearly $760 million has been wagered on the outcome of the November 4 U.S. presidential election.
As of August 29, Polymarket data shows Republican candidate Donald Trump with a slight edge over Democrat Kamala Harris, with odds of 50% compared to Harris's 48%. The platform has gained attention for its accurate forecasting; for example, it correctly anticipated that independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. would exit the presidential race before September 2024. Odds for this outcome surged from 8% to over 90% leading up to Kennedy’s August 23 announcement.
Polymarket faces competition from other platforms like Solana-based Drift Protocol’s BET platform, which surpassed Polymarket in daily trading volume for the first time on August 29. This increased competition highlights the evolving landscape of prediction markets and their growing role in political and financial analysis.