AUS
NZ
UK
CA
USA
FRA
GER
ESP
ITA
NLD
PRT
SWE
GRC
IND
POL
BRA
ZAF
RUS
CHN
UAE
Bitcoin investors who entered the market at the peak in March have been navigating a turbulent period of price action. The cryptocurrency has faced significant volatility since reaching an all-time high of $73,800 in mid-March 2024, leading to a challenging environment for new buyers.
A recent analysis by CryptoQuant, published on September 2, draws parallels between the current market conditions and those observed before Bitcoin's previous all-time high in 2020. According to the onchain analytics platform, current short-term holder trends resemble those from mid-2019, suggesting a pattern of investor behavior similar to that observed before Bitcoin's all-time high in 2020.
The analysis highlights that {Bitcoin} (BTC) buyers from the last six months are either holding their positions or selling at a loss due to the prolonged period of sideways price movement. The spike in unspent transaction outputs (UTXOs) with an age of six months or less indicates that many new investors entered the market around Bitcoin's recent peak.
This trend mirrors the situation in 2019 when Bitcoin reached a local high before spending nearly 500 days to surpass the previous all-time high of $20,000 set in December 2017. The analysis notes that a comparable market structure emerged around the 2019 halving event, followed by a significant delay before achieving new all-time highs, with the COVID-19 pandemic also influencing the timeline.
The current cohort of new investors differs from traditional short-term holders, who typically maintain their positions for up to 155 days. These new investors are holding Bitcoin at a cost basis that currently exceeds the spot price, resulting in unrealized losses.
The analysis concludes that Bitcoin's price has been range-bound for over six months without a clear catalyst for a breakout. Additionally, other onchain data suggest that Bitcoin's hash price, which reflects the production costs for miners, is approaching levels that could indicate a long-term price floor for the cryptocurrency.
