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Bitcoin's price movements in the near term, as the market remains uncertain about its direction. For the past seven months, Bitcoin has fluctuated between $74,000 and $52,000, and there is ongoing debate about whether the cryptocurrency will experience a breakout or continue its downward trend.
Market participants are in a “wait and see” mode, with key events on the horizon expected to impact {Bitcoin} (BTC) trajectory. Coinstash co-founder Mena Theodorou highlighted that Bitcoin's next major move will likely depend on how the market reacts to political and regulatory changes in the United States, alongside macroeconomic indicators such as interest rates and employment data.
eToro market analyst Josh Gilbert pointed to the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on September 18 as a critical event for Bitcoin. There is a general expectation that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will implement an interest rate cut, up to 0.525%. Such a move could positively affect risk assets like Bitcoin by increasing market liquidity and investor appetite for higher-risk investments.
Coinstash CEO Tina Wang also noted the importance of U.S. employment data, scheduled for release on September 6. The data could reveal whether the labor market remains strong or shows signs of a slowdown, which could influence the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy. While a higher-than-expected unemployment rate might raise recession concerns, it could also provide the Fed with more impetus to reduce interest rates, benefiting Bitcoin.
IG Markets analyst Tony Sycamore indicated that for Bitcoin to signal a genuine upward reversal, it must sustain a breakout above the recent high of $65,000. If successful, Bitcoin may encounter resistance between $70,000 and $74,000 before establishing a more bullish trend.
Currently trading at $59,140, Bitcoin has achieved a 40% increase since the start of the year but remains 20% below its all-time high of $73,800 reached on March 14. Historical data shows that September is typically a challenging month for Bitcoin, with an average return of -4.3% since 2013. Gilbert noted that while there are significant risk events ahead, indicators such as global growth and U.S. GDP revisions suggest for positive market movement in the longer term.
