Vitalik Buterin, co-founder of Ethereum, recently transferred approximately 1,100 ETH to cryptocurrency exchanges, a move that coincides with a significant transaction from the Ethereum Foundation. Buterin’s transfers, valued at around $10 million, have prompted speculation regarding the sale of his Ether holdings. Historical data reveals that Buterin’s address has seen substantial outflows, totaling around 422,000 ETH (approximately $1.04 billion as of September 1, 2024) since 2015, with over 840,000 ETH withdrawn in the past two years.
On August 31, Buterin addressed the speculation by stating that he has not sold {Ethereum} (ETH) for profit since 2018. According to Buterin, the transfers have been intended to support various projects within the Ethereum ecosystem and broader charitable initiatives.
This recent activity aligns with the Ethereum Foundation’s own movements. In August, the Foundation transferred 84,000 ETH, worth over $207 million, to crypto exchanges. The Foundation regularly sells portions of its ETH holdings to finance development and research critical to the Ethereum ecosystem.
Large ETH transfers can sometimes influence market sentiment, as they may be interpreted as signs of selling pressure. For example, in November 2021, a transfer of 20,000 ETH by the Ethereum Foundation was followed by a significant price decline in Ether. Similarly, a sale of 350,000 ETH in May 2021 preceded a 50% drop in Ether’s market price.
However, not all sales by the Ethereum Foundation have led to market corrections. For instance, a sale of 100,000 ETH in December 2020 was followed by a substantial price increase, driven by the launch of the Beacon Chain and a favorable monetary policy from the Federal Reserve.
Currently, Ether is trading within the range defined by its 50-week and 200-week exponential moving averages (EMAs). A recent pullback from the 50-week EMA suggests a decline towards the 200-week EMA, approximately $2,000, by October. This level coincides with the lower trendline of Ether’s multi-year ascending triangle pattern, providing a possible support area. If this support holds, Ether might rebound and test the upper trendline of the triangle, reaching around $4,000 by the end of 2024 or early 2025.