WiseTech Global Faces Setback as FY25 Guidance Downgraded, Analysts See Buying Opportunity

November 25, 2024 11:33 AM AEDT | By Team Kalkine Media

WiseTech Global Faces Setback as FY25 Guidance Downgraded, Analysts See Buying Opportunity — Image source: shutterstock

Revised Guidance

The company now expects FY25 revenue in the range of $1,200 million to $1,300 million and EBITDA between $600 million and $660 million. These figures mark a mid-point reduction of 5.7% for revenue and 7.4% for EBITDA compared to prior forecasts.

The delay in the Container Transport Optimization product launch has pushed expected revenue contributions into the latter half of FY25, affecting near-term growth but not eliminating the long-term potential of the product.

Analysts' Perspectives

Despite the disappointing update, leading brokerages remain optimistic about WiseTech's prospects.

Bell Potter: The brokerage reiterated its "buy" rating, increasing its price target from $123.75 to $140. Bell Potter believes the current selloff presents a buying opportunity, estimating a 15% upside based on the current share price of $121.74. While it has adjusted its revenue and EBITDA forecasts downward for FY25–FY27, Bell Potter sees the delayed revenue as postponed rather than lost.
Goldman Sachs: Similarly, Goldman Sachs retained its "buy" rating with a price target of $138. The brokerage acknowledged the delay’s impact on near-term earnings, lowering EBITDA estimates by 7% for FY25 and by 5% for FY26 and FY27. However, Goldman highlighted the potential for a strong revenue growth rebound in FY26, with group revenue expected to rise by 28%.

Both brokers view the upcoming Investor Day on December 3 as a pivotal moment for WiseTech to address investor concerns and provide more details on its revised guidance and product pipeline.

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