Morgan Stanley Assigns Equal-Weight Rating to BHP

August 28, 2024 06:05 PM AEST | By Team Kalkine Media
 Morgan Stanley Assigns Equal-Weight Rating to BHP
Image source: shutterstock

BHP Group (ASX:BHP), one of the world's largest mining and resources companies, recently unveiled its financial results for the fiscal year 2024. The company's performance for the year met profit expectations and surpassed forecasts in terms of cash flow. A key factor contributing to this stronger cash position was the reduction in provisions paid, which positively impacted overall cash flow. Additionally, the dividend paid out for the fiscal year was 4% higher than what had been projected by market analysts, reflecting BHP’s solid financial performance and commitment to returning value to shareholders. 

FY24 Financial Performance Highlights: 

- Profit Results: BHP Group’s profit for FY24 was in line with market expectations, demonstrating stability in its core operations. 

- Cash Flow Improvement: The company reported an improved cash flow, largely attributed to lower provisions being paid during the year. This positive cash flow performance underscores BHP’s efficient management of financial resources. 

- Dividend: The dividend declared for FY24 was 4% higher than anticipated, highlighting BHP’s commitment to delivering value to its shareholders amidst a challenging market environment. 

As BHP Group looks toward fiscal year 2025, the company has outlined cost guidance that is broadly higher than market consensus. This increase in cost guidance reflects anticipated higher operational and production expenses. Moreover, BHP’s capital expenditure (capex) for the upcoming year is projected to be 7-10% above previous estimates. Despite these higher costs, BHP is forecasting a 4% growth in copper production for FY25, indicating a continued focus on expanding its core resource production capabilities. 

Project Updates and Future Outlook 

One of the major highlights for BHP is the progress of its Jansen Stage 1 project. The project is currently ahead of its construction schedule, with completion now at 52%. This positive development includes the recent sanctioning of Stage 2 of the Jansen project, which positions BHP for future growth. The first production from this project is anticipated in late 2026, marking a significant milestone in BHP’s strategic expansion plans. 

Valuation and Market Position 

In terms of market valuation, BHP’s current share price stands at $41.35. The target price set for BHP is $46.30. If BHP achieves this target price, it would represent an approximate return of 11%, excluding dividends, fees, and other charges. This anticipated return underscores BHP’s favorable market position and its potential for growth within the materials sector. 

The company’s financial stability, coupled with its strategic project advancements and robust cash flow, reflects a positive outlook for BHP Group. As it continues to navigate the complexities of the global resources market, BHP remains well-positioned to leverage its strong operational performance and strategic investments for future success. The company’s ongoing commitment to shareholder value and its focus on key projects such as Jansen are expected to support its growth trajectory in the coming years. 


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