Highlights:
- BlueScope shares hit AU$22.09, their highest since December 2024.
- New U.S. steel tariffs could impact BlueScope’s exports, with analysts forecasting an AU$80M hit to FY26 ASP earnings.
- Jefferies expects U.S. steel price gains, which could offset tariff-related headwinds for the company.
Shares of BlueScope Steel Ltd (ASX:BSL) surged 2.7% to AU$22.09, reaching their highest level since 2 December 2024, as investors reacted to reports that U.S. President Donald Trump is set to announce new 25% tariffs on all steel and aluminum imports.
U.S. Tariffs and Their Impact on BlueScope
North America is a key revenue driver for BlueScope, contributing 43.9% of total sales in fiscal 2024. The proposed tariffs could have a mixed impact on the company:
- Potential earnings drag: With BlueScope exporting approximately 200,000 tonnes of steel annually, analysts estimate an AU$80 million hit to the company’s FY26 average selling price (ASP) earnings.
- North Star production: According to Jefferies, one of BlueScope’s key U.S. operations, North Star, is expected to produce 3 million tonnes in FY26. To counter the ASP impact, BlueScope would need a $15-$20 per tonne increase in North Star prices.
- Industry-wide price boost: Despite potential headwinds, analysts at Jefferies believe the tariffs could drive up U.S. hot-rolled coil steel prices, benefiting BlueScope’s North American business.
Stock Performance and Market Sentiment
BlueScope shares have climbed 15.1% year-to-date, reflecting positive sentiment toward the steel industry amid expectations of higher domestic steel prices in the U.S..