BHP's HY25 Performance: Revenue Decline, Copper Growth & Future Outlook

3 min read | February 18, 2025 12:16 PM AEDT | By Team Kalkine Media

Highlights 

  • Revenue and profits declined, but copper’s contribution saw a significant rise. 
  • Interim dividend reduced amid cost discipline and strategic investments. 
  • Future growth hinges on iron ore and copper market conditions. 

BHP Group (ASX:BHP), one of the world's leading mining companies, has released its HY25 financial results, reflecting a mixed performance influenced by commodity price fluctuations and operational efficiencies. 

Financial Performance Overview 

For the six months ending December 31, 2024, revenue came in at US$25.2 billion, marking an 8% decline year-over-year. Underlying EBITDA dropped 11% to US$12.4 billion, while underlying attributable profit fell 23% to US$5.1 billion. However, attributable profit surged 376% to US$4.4 billion, largely due to exceptional items impacting last year’s figures. 

Cash flow also saw a downturn, with net operating cash flow down 6% to US$8.3 billion and free cash flow decreasing 30% to US$2.6 billion. Reflecting these financial shifts, the company declared an interim dividend of US$0.50 per share, a 30.6% reduction compared to the prior year. 

Factors Impacting Performance 

The company attributed its revenue decline to lower iron ore and steelmaking coal prices, which were partly offset by higher copper prices. Cost efficiency and productivity measures helped mitigate some impacts, with unit costs down 3.9% across major assets. Notably, Escondida copper operations reduced unit costs by 12%, reinforcing the company’s focus on cost discipline. 

A major highlight was copper’s growing contribution to earnings. Copper accounted for 39% of underlying EBITDA in HY25, up from 25% in HY24, driven by a 10% increase in copper volumes and higher prices. 

Strategic Projects & Future Plans 

BHP is advancing its Jansen potash project in Canada, which is seen as a long-term growth driver. The first stage is 63% complete, targeting production by the end of 2026, while the second phase is 6% complete, aiming for production by FY29. 

Market Outlook 

The company remains focused on iron ore and copper markets, which are pivotal for future growth. Due to Cyclone Zelia, annual iron ore production is expected to be in the lower half of the 282mt-294mt guidance. BHP aims to increase annual production beyond 305mt, with potential for expansion to 330mt, depending on market conditions. 

On copper, demand is expected to remain strong, supported by electric vehicle growth, infrastructure development, and artificial intelligence-driven data centers. However, supply challenges persist, with tight inventories and reliance on copper scrap expected in the near term. 

BHP (ASX:BHP) anticipates that commodity price movements, demand shifts, and production efficiency will play crucial roles in shaping its financial performance in the coming years. 


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