Australian Miners Set to End 2024 with Significant Declines, Snapping Eight-Year Streak

2 min read | December 27, 2024 12:27 PM AEDT | By Team Kalkine Media

Highlights

  • Australian mining index XMM down 18.4% in 2024, underperforming the ASX benchmark index XJO, which gained 8.3%.
  • BHP Group and Fortescue Metals slump 21% and 36%, respectively, due to weaker iron ore demand from China.
  • Gold miners buck the trend, gaining 14.8% in 2024, driven by higher bullion prices.

Australian miners are poised to close 2024 with their sharpest annual decline in almost a decade, as the sector battles weakening demand from top consumer China and broader macroeconomic challenges. The Australian mining index (XMM) is set to fall 18.4%, marking the end of an eight-year streak of consecutive gains.

In stark contrast, the ASX benchmark index (XJO) has risen 8.3% this year, highlighting the divergence in performance across sectors.

China’s Property Market Woes Weigh on Iron Ore

A prolonged downturn in China’s property market, which has been reeling since 2021, has weighed heavily on iron ore prices. With the country being Australia’s largest trading partner, domestic miners such as BHP Group, Fortescue Metals, and Rio Tinto have faced the brunt of declining demand.

  • BHP Group (ASX:BHP): The mining giant has slumped 21% this year, its worst performance since 2015. Adding to its woes, BHP abandoned its $49 billion takeover bid for Anglo American.
  • Fortescue Metals (ASX:FMG): Fortescue has plummeted 36%, making it one of the sector’s biggest losers.
  • Rio Tinto (ASX:RIO): Rio has shed 14.4%, though it made a strategic move by acquiring U.S.-based Arcadium Lithium in a $6.7 billion deal, positioning itself as the world’s third-largest lithium producer.

Lithium Sector Struggles Amid Oversupply

Lithium miners have endured another challenging year, with oversupply outpacing strong demand projections. The sector is expected to record significant losses:

  • IGO Ltd (ASX:IGO): The lithium miner is on track to end the year 46.7% lower, marking its worst performance since 2011.

Despite these setbacks, Rio Tinto’s Arcadium acquisition could signal a turning point for the lithium market in the long term.

Gold Miners Shine Amid Sector Weakness

In a bright spot for the mining industry, gold miners have outperformed, buoyed by surging bullion prices amid a softer U.S. dollar. The gold miners index XGD is up 14.8% this year.

  • Northern Star Resources (ASX:NST): The gold producer has gained 12.7%, marking its third consecutive year of growth.

 


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