Loan Growth: Is there potential for CBA Shares to Reach New Highs? - Kalkine Media

December 01, 2023 03:23 PM AEDT | By Team Kalkine Media
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The Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA) shares could be on a path to recovery based on the latest loan data, signaling potential optimism for shareholders. Over the past month, the CBA share price has already witnessed an 8% increase, prompting speculation about the possibility of reaching a new record high. 

One of the crucial factors influencing a bank's performance is its interest income, determined by the amount lent to borrowers and the corresponding interest rates charged on those loans. Recent data from the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (APRA) reveals that CBA's (ASX: CBA) total loan balance to owner-occupiers and investors has increased by $63 million. This development sheds light on the dynamics within ASX financial stocks, showcasing the trends in loan portfolios and their impact on the performance of financial institutions like CBA. Investors and analysts may closely monitor such data to assess the broader health and direction of the financial sector. 

While this may seem like a modest growth percentage-wise, it gains significance considering the substantial size of CBA's home loan book, exceeding $540 billion. As the largest lender in the home loan sector, maintaining and potentially growing its loan balance is essential for CBA to retain its leading position in the market. 

However, competition in the banking sector remains fierce, and maintaining market share requires a delicate balance between profitability and providing competitive offerings to borrowers. The recent loan growth at CBA prompts further exploration into whether it has impacted the bank's net interest margin (NIM) and how it compares to competitors. 

In its latest quarterly update, CBA acknowledged a reduction in NIM due to competitive pressures in deposits and customers shifting to higher-yielding deposits. The bank's cash net profit after tax (NPAT) for the latest quarter stood at $2.5 billion, showing stability compared to the quarterly average of the FY23 second half and a 1% increase year-over-year. 

The CEO of CBA expressed optimism about the Australian economy's resilience, supported by low unemployment and robust population growth. While acknowledging the impact of higher interest rates on slowing growth and consumer spending, the bank remains optimistic about the medium-term outlook. 

As CBA pursues loan growth and navigates competitive pressures, the question remains whether the CBA share price can surpass its previous high of just above $111 earlier this year. Analysts, including UBS, have set a price target of $105 on CBA shares, implying a modest rise over the next year but falling short of a new record. The ultimate trajectory of the CBA share price will likely hinge on sustained loan book growth and overall profitability in the evolving economic landscape. 


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