Kalkine: Gas Investment Shifts as Santos Flags Victoria's Energy Policies | ASX200 Spotlight

3 min read | May 28, 2025 12:43 PM AEST | By Team Kalkine Media

Highlights 

  • Santos CEO criticises Victoria's restrictive energy policy 
  • Investment focus moves to PNG and U.S. projects 
  • Sector warns of east coast gas supply risks 

Santos Ltd (ASX:STO) has raised serious concerns over Victoria’s gas policy, with its CEO Kevin Gallagher claiming it is a significant deterrent to future investment. Speaking at an energy conference in Brisbane, Gallagher expressed frustration over what he described as an unsupportive regulatory environment that hampers domestic gas development and forces companies to look abroad. 

The comments come as the state imposes increasingly strict restrictions on new gas connections, coupled with ambitious renewable energy targets. Despite being the country’s most gas-reliant state, Victoria’s policy direction is causing industry stakeholders to re-evaluate the region’s investment viability. 

Gallagher made it clear that jurisdictions such as Queensland, South Australia, and Western Australia remain far more attractive for development projects. In contrast, he suggested Victoria’s regulatory framework is pushing capital overseas, particularly towards Papua New Guinea and the United States. 

One clear example is Santos’ Narrabri Gas Project in New South Wales. While the company is ready to proceed, key infrastructure approvals remain pending, creating long delays and uncertainty. Gallagher remarked that with comparable projects in Alaska and PNG, investment decisions are now leaning toward regions with clearer regulatory pathways and stronger development support. 

The broader industry concern is the looming gas supply shortfall for Victoria and the east coast, which could hit as early as 2029. With traditional gas sources like the Bass Strait in decline, reliance on imported LNG is expected to grow, potentially escalating household energy costs due to higher import premiums. 

This issue becomes even more critical in the context of the S&P/ASX200 index, where energy companies play a crucial role. Shifts in investment strategy, driven by regional policy environments, could influence market performance and reshape the future landscape of energy stocks in the index. 

Gallagher’s remarks underscore broader industry frustration that inconsistent and restrictive policies may damage Australia’s global investment appeal. While regions like Queensland and WA continue to draw major funds into gas and hydrogen initiatives, Victoria’s stance is contributing to a broader reallocation of capital. 

Amid these developments, investors keeping a close eye on ASX dividend stocks may find shifting investment trends relevant. Companies redirecting capital away from local projects could influence long-term dividend strategies, particularly for those listed on the ASX200. 

As energy policy continues to evolve, market watchers are likely to monitor how these regulatory dynamics affect both corporate decisions and shareholder outcomes across Australia's energy sector. 


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