As per the latest ANZ/Roy Morgan weekly index, the consumer confidence has risen 0.8 per cent to 118.1 points in the week ending September 30, which has reversed the fall of 0.7% in the previous week. The ‘time to buy a household item’ sub-index has risen by 1.3% compared to a fall of 4% last week. The four-week moving average inflation anticipations are stable at 4.3%. Overall the confidence continues to be above the long-run average. The consumer’s resilience is due to the weaker housing market. The index has also reflected that the consumers are less confident about their financial situation for the next year, as it is showing the reading of minus 1.2 per cent to 127.2.
However, the index suggests that the consumers were more positive about the progress in the economy for the next year, as the one-year reading for the index is up 2.1 per cent at 108.2 and also 1.3 per cent higher to 113.3 in five years. The export is increasing due to a weaker Australian dollar and an increase in global demand for coal, oil and LNG. The Department of Industry, Science and Innovation September resources and energy quarterly has projected that the combination of Australia's declining dollar and the continuous growth in energy demand will increase the value of Australia’s export to approximately $252 billion in 2018-19, which is approximately 10 per cent above the prior estimates. Additionally, there are lot of domestic events which are expected to affect the consumer sentiment over the next few weeks. This comprises of this week’s RBA statement and the news related to the retail sales to labor market data later in October. Overall things are positive to broadly support consumer confidence except the rising petrol prices in particular that could negatively impact sentiment.
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