ASX 200 Set for Decline as S&P 500 Extends Pullback: AUB, Johns Lyng, and Domino's Pizza Earnings in Focus

Highlights: 

• The ASX 200 futures indicate a decline of 51 points (-0.61%) following weak leads from Wall Street. 
• The S&P 500 extended its selloff as tech stocks led losses, with Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA), Meta (NASDAQ:META), and Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) experiencing declines. 
• Key earnings reports from AUB Group (ASX:AUB), Domino's Pizza Enterprises (ASX:DMP), Johns Lyng Group (ASX:JLG), Woodside Energy (ASX:WDS), and more were released, influencing market sentiment. 

The ASX 200 is expected to open lower, with futures down 51 points (-0.61%) at 8:30 am AEDT. US markets extended their losses, driven by ongoing concerns over slowing manufacturing and services sector activity in both the United States and Europe. Technology stocks were particularly weak, with Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) declining 3.0%, Meta (NASDAQ:META) dropping 2.2%, and Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) falling 2.1%. 

The S&P 500 recorded its largest one-day loss of the year in the previous session. Equal-weighted S&P 500 stocks outperformed the benchmark index by 58 basis points, reflecting a rotation into defensive sectors such as healthcare, financials, and real estate. There was limited significant newsflow overnight, though former U.S. President Donald Trump indicated expectations for tariffs on Mexico and Canada to take effect on March 4. Meanwhile, Jefferies noted that negative earnings guidance revisions for Q1 and FY2025 have reached their highest levels in more than a decade. 

Physically backed gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs) recorded their largest weekly inflows since March 2022 as investors sought safe-haven assets. Additionally, stocks linked to the COVID-19 pandemic saw gains in Asian markets following the discovery of a new bat virus strain. 

Market Developments 

Corporate Updates 

Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) has begun cancelling leases on data center capacity, indicating a potential oversupply issue in the market. Starbucks (NASDAQ:SBUX) announced plans to cut 1,100 corporate-level jobs, reflecting ongoing restructuring efforts. Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) outlined an investment plan to allocate more than US$500 billion toward artificial intelligence (AI) development over the next four years, which will include hiring approximately 20,000 new employees. 

JP Morgan Chase (NYSE:JPM) is set to deploy an additional US$50 billion to expand its presence in the private credit market. BP (LON:BP) is shifting its focus back to fossil fuels, moving away from its previous renewable energy targets. Meanwhile, Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE:BRK.A) is exploring opportunities to increase its stakes in Japan’s five largest trading houses. 

Central Bank and Economic Updates 

The Chicago Federal Reserve's Austan Goolsbee downplayed concerns over rising consumer inflation expectations, suggesting that the recent increase in inflation forecasts may not warrant aggressive monetary policy action. Meanwhile, European Central Bank (ECB) member Pierre Wunsch warned that excessive interest rate cuts could pose risks, suggesting a cautious approach moving forward. 

Geopolitical and Trade Developments 

US officials are reportedly exploring the possibility of a minerals deal with Ukraine, though key sticking points remain unresolved. The Trump administration has intensified trade measures against China, urging Mexico to impose tariffs on Chinese goods. Additionally, there are ongoing discussions regarding broader investment and trade restrictions related to China. 

ASX Corporate Earnings Reports 

AUB Group (ASX:AUB) reported a 9% increase in 1H25 underlying net profit after tax (NPAT) to $79.3 million, aligning with market expectations. The company also announced a 25% increase in its interim dividend to 25 cents per share (cps), exceeding consensus estimates of 23 cps. 

Domino’s Pizza Enterprises (ASX:DMP) reported a 5.7% decline in 1H25 underlying NPAT to $58.8 million, though this figure was slightly above the consensus forecast of $57.6 million. The company maintained its interim dividend at 55 cps, and management indicated that sales momentum improved towards the end of the first half and into the second half of FY25. 

Johns Lyng Group (ASX:JLG) reported a 1H25 NPAT of $22.6 million, missing consensus estimates of $27 million by approximately 16%. The company also declared an interim dividend of 2.5 cps, falling short of Morgans’ forecast of 4.2 cps. Full-year revenue and EBITDA guidance were revised 5-6% below consensus estimates, contributing to a weaker market sentiment surrounding the stock. 

Deep Yellow (ASX:DYL) provided updated guidance on its production timelines, with maiden Tumas production expected in the second half of 2026 and Muga Rock production anticipated in 2028. 

Fenix Resources (ASX:FEX) reiterated that its production rate remains on track to triple to 4 million tonnes per annum by 2025. 

G8 Education (ASX:GEM) reported a 14.2% year-over-year increase in NPAT to $72.4 million for CY24, with a final dividend of 3.5 cps. The results were largely in line with market expectations. 

Lifestyle Communities (ASX:LIC) posted a 9.1% increase in 1H25 NPAT to $22.7 million, surpassing consensus expectations of $21.4 million by 6.1%. However, the company opted not to declare a dividend due to slow sales and uncertain forward visibility. 

Magellan Financial Group (ASX:MFG) disclosed that Executive Chairman Andrew Formica purchased approximately 11,000 shares in the company, signaling potential confidence in its long-term prospects. 

Praemium (ASX:PPS) reported a 45% increase in 1H25 statutory NPAT to $5.8 million, though this was below consensus expectations of $7.4 million, representing a 21% miss. The company also announced that Chief Financial Officer David Coluter has resigned. 

Qualitas (ASX:QAL) reported a 28% increase in 1H25 normalized NPAT to $16.2 million, with its year-to-date pipeline and closed transactions up 12% year-over-year to $3.8 billion. The company reaffirmed its full-year guidance. 

What to Watch Today 

AUB Group’s earnings report aligns with market expectations, while its dividend increase exceeded forecasts. The stock has underperformed relative to peers, and market participants will be assessing its outlook for the second half of FY25. 

Johns Lyng Group posted weaker-than-expected earnings, with both NPAT and dividend figures falling short of estimates. The stock experienced a ~25% decline during the previous reporting season following disappointing results, leading to a valuation reset from a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 40 to 22 over the past year. Short interest in the stock has surged from around 2% to 8.8% over the same period. Despite weak numbers, valuation adjustments and potential short covering could influence its near-term trajectory. 

Praemium reported a substantial statutory NPAT miss, though it remains unclear whether the shortfall was driven by one-off items. The resignation of its Chief Financial Officer may also contribute to uncertainty surrounding the stock’s outlook. 

With another busy day of corporate earnings ahead, market sentiment will likely be shaped by how investors digest these key results and whether defensive sectors continue to attract rotation amid broader market volatility.