ASX 200 Futures Signal Rebound Amid Global Market Volatility and Tariff Turbulence

Highlights 

• ASX 200 futures rise 55 points (+0.75%) following intense volatility on Wall Street driven by tariff confusion 
• False reports of a US tariff pause temporarily lifted equities before reversal triggered by renewed threats 
• Deep Yellow (ASX:DYL), Insignia Financial (ASX:IFL), Zip Co (ASX:ZIP), and Guzman y Gomez (ASX:GYG) feature in major ASX developments 

ASX 200 futures indicated a positive open with a 55-point lift, equivalent to a 0.75% rise, as of 8:30 am AEST. This optimism follows a tumultuous session on Wall Street, where major indices initially surged on false reports regarding a potential pause in US tariffs, only to reverse course when the claims were refuted and tensions escalated further. 

Equities in the United States opened sharply lower before staging a remarkable rally spurred by a misleading report suggesting that the White House was preparing to pause all tariffs except those on Chinese imports for a 90-day period. This report, initially circulated by a social media user citing misinterpreted information, triggered an early surge, with the Nasdaq soaring nearly 10% in the first hour of trading. However, gains were short-lived. The White House swiftly dismissed the speculation, and US President Donald Trump added fuel to the fire by threatening an additional 50% tariff on Chinese goods unless existing 34% tariffs imposed by China on US products are lifted. 

As a result, the major US benchmarks ended the session with mixed performance. The S&P 500 closed 0.23% lower, the Nasdaq eked out a marginal gain of 0.10%, while the Dow Jones fell by 0.91% and the Russell 2000 shed 0.92%. Intra-day volatility was extreme, with the S&P 500 recording a trading range from -4.71% at its lowest to +3.40% at its peak before finishing slightly in the red. 

Further downward pressure on equities is being anticipated by several Wall Street institutions. Notably, BofA, JPMorgan, Evercore ISI, and Oppenheimer revised their S&P 500 targets lower, citing downside earnings-per-share risks of 10–15% stemming from ongoing tariff pressures. Additionally, BlackRock’s Larry Fink noted that equities may experience an extended 20% drawdown if economic conditions worsen. 

A rotation towards safe-haven assets continues as market uncertainty escalates. Chinese government bonds rallied, driving benchmark yields toward historic lows. Currencies like the Japanese yen and Swiss franc surged as investors sought shelter. Meanwhile, speculation is mounting that Chinese authorities may devalue the yuan in response to the intensifying trade dispute. 

ETFs tied to volatility saw record-setting strength as traders rapidly adjusted risk exposure. JPMorgan flagged potential equity selling pressure of $25–30 billion from volatility-targeting portfolios aiming to scale down risk allocations. Meanwhile, off-price and discount retailers are being viewed as relative outperformers amid the broader tariff fallout, with economic sensitivity weighing heavily on consumer discretionary names and global supply chains. 

On the corporate front, several notable developments unfolded. Dollar Tree (NASDAQ:DLTR) rose 6% following an upgrade from a major investment bank citing its defensive positioning amid global economic stress. Stellantis (NYSE:STLA) unveiled measures to assist suppliers with tariff-related costs, while Foxconn posted record first-quarter revenue due to strong demand for AI technologies. Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) also reported plans to increase the volume of iPhone shipments from India to the US in an effort to bypass tariffs associated with Chinese exports. 

Tensions continue to escalate on the geopolitical front. Trump’s threat of a 50% additional tariff on China was reinforced by comments from key trade advisors, who criticized non-tariff barriers and alleged backdoor trade practices such as rerouting Chinese goods through Vietnam. The European Union offered a "zero-for-zero" industrial tariff agreement to de-escalate tensions, but also proposed retaliatory tariffs of 25% on selected US goods in response to earlier steel and aluminum duties. 

China responded by tightening export controls on rare earth materials, vital for high-tech manufacturing, threatening to disrupt global supply chains. At the same time, US customs began collecting a 10% tariff on imports, with expanded duties on 57 major trading partners set to activate in the coming days. 

On the Australian front, Deep Yellow (ASX:DYL) announced a deferral of its final investment decision on the Tumas uranium project due to suppressed uranium prices. The construction of its full-scale processing facility will be delayed until market conditions improve. 

Guzman y Gomez (ASX:GYG) delivered strong third-quarter results, reporting a 23.6% increase in sales to $289.5 million and 11.1% growth in comparable Australian stores. The fast-food operator also confirmed plans to introduce a dividend policy in its FY25 results while reaffirming its FY25 financial guidance. 

Insignia Financial (ASX:IFL) may see its takeover proposals from Bain Capital and CC Capital falter amid broader market instability. Meanwhile, James Hardie Industries (ASX:JHX) shareholders are pressing the federal government to review the ASX’s waiver granted for a proposed deal involving Azek, as concerns mount over governance and transparency. 

Star Entertainment Group (ASX:SGR) finalised a $300 million agreement with Bally’s Corporation, involving a multi-tranche convertible note that could eventually account for 56.7% of Star’s fully diluted share capital. The deal marks a pivotal restructuring step amid efforts to stabilise operations and capitalise on fresh investment inflows. 

Zip Co (ASX:ZIP) announced plans to commence an on-market share buyback of up to $50 million starting from April 23. The decision follows a period of strategic repositioning and cost rationalisation as the company navigates volatile market conditions. 

Looking ahead, the ASX 200 appears poised for a bounce, with futures pointing to a firmer open. However, high volatility remains a defining feature of current markets. Only two sectors on Wall Street—Communications and Technology—finished in the green during the last session. Sectors like Real Estate, Materials, Utilities, and Staples posted declines of over 1.0%, reflecting a broad-based aversion to risk assets. 

Tariff tensions remain central to global market direction, particularly in light of China's firm stance and Washington's continued escalation. Though negotiations with countries like Japan and Vietnam are underway, their outcomes remain uncertain. Most global ETFs, including those that initially gained from the early-session rally, ended lower as confidence faded. Conviction remains elusive in a market environment defined by rapid shifts, geopolitical risk, and economic fragility.