Bumble stock drops 19% on weak user growth, revenue guidance; analysts cut price targets

Shares of dating app operator Bumble, Inc. tumbled more than 19% in premarket trading Wednesday after the company reported slower-than-expected user growth and provided a weak revenue outlook for the first quarter.

The stock was on track for its steepest one-day decline since August, when it cut its 2024 sales forecast.

For the fourth quarter, Bumble posted revenue of $261.6 million, down 4.4% year-over-year but slightly ahead of analyst estimates.

Adjusted EBITDA came in at $72.5 million, in line with expectations but lower than the $73.7 million recorded a year ago.

Meanwhile, total paying users rose 5.3% to 4.2 million, significantly slower than the 13% growth seen in the prior quarter.

While Bumble’s earnings largely met expectations, its forward-looking guidance fell short.

The company forecasted first-quarter revenue between $242 million and $248 million, well below the average analyst estimate of $252 million.

It also projected adjusted EBITDA in the range of $60 million to $63 million, signalling ongoing financial pressure.

Bumble stock (BMBL) set to lose over $142 M in m-cap

Bumble’s disappointing report triggered a sharp decline in investor sentiment.

With the premarket drop, Bumble was set to lose over $142 million in market value, bringing its valuation down significantly.

As of Tuesday’s close, Bumble was valued at $876.3 million, a fraction of Match Group’s $8.85 billion market cap.

Bumble shares have now fallen 0.5% in 2025 after a steep 45% decline in 2024.

The latest sell-off underscores the challenges facing the online dating industry, which has struggled with slowing growth, inflation-driven pressure on consumer spending, and a lack of innovation in recent years.

Analysts lower their price targets as Bumble struggles with declining user engagement

Bumble has been struggling to regain momentum amid declining user engagement and industry-wide headwinds.

In mid-January, the company announced that founder Whitney Wolfe Herd would return as CEO in March, aiming to lead a turnaround strategy.

The company has also implemented job cuts, refreshed its core Bumble app, and introduced new features such as “opening moves,” allowing women to set icebreaker questions for better conversations.

Despite these efforts, analysts remain skeptical about Bumble’s ability to stage a quick recovery.

“There’s clearly more work to be done on the turnaround, and we see visibility limited as management did not provide full-year guidance for the first time,” said Citi analyst Ygal Arounian.

Multiple brokerages reacted negatively to Bumble’s results, with at least seven firms lowering their price targets.

RBC Capital noted that the lingering social effects of the pandemic have reduced dating app engagement, cutting its price target to $7 from $8.

JPMorgan similarly lowered its target, expressing doubt that Bumble’s new product updates would provide a meaningful boost in the near term.

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