What’s Driving the Market Down as Treasury Yields Climb Again?

2 min read | December 18, 2024 05:29 PM AEDT | By Team Kalkine Media

Highlights

  • U.S. stock indices decline as Treasury yields rise
  • November retail sales surpass expectations, signaling consumer strength
  • UnitedHealth shares drop to six-month lows

The financial sector experienced a downturn as major U.S. stock indices closed lower on Tuesday. Treasury yields saw an increase, influenced by a stronger-than-anticipated report on November retail sales. This movement contributed to the Dow Jones Industrial Average extending its longest daily losing streak since 1978.

Index Performance

The S&P 500 concluded the trading session 23 points, or 0.39%, below its previous close. The Nasdaq Composite also dipped by 65 points, equating to a 0.2% decrease, largely due to significant declines in technology stocks, including Nvidia. Meanwhile, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 267 points ahead of the Federal Reserve's upcoming policy decision scheduled for tomorrow in Washington.

Economic Indicators

The Atlanta Federal Reserve's GDPNow forecasting tool, which provides real-time estimates of U.S. economic growth, indicated a current quarter growth of 3.1%. This figure represents a slight slowdown from the previous estimate of 3.3% recorded on December 9. The adjustment is attributed to a decline in domestic manufacturing, although this is being balanced by robust consumer and services sector spending.

UnitedHealth Group Decline

UnitedHealth Group (UNH) saw its shares decline to a six-month low, continuing a downward trend that has significantly impacted the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Since December 4, following the tragic murder of UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson, UnitedHealth's stock has decreased by over 21%. This decline has contributed approximately half of the Dow's total loss of 1,300 points over the past eight trading sessions.

Retail Sales Data

U.S. retail sales for November rose by 0.7%, reaching a total of $724.6 billion. This increase follows record spending during the Thanksgiving holiday, indicating sustained consumer strength in the latter part of the year. The control group sales, which exclude categories like autos and building materials and are integral to the government's GDP calculations, grew by 0.4%, aligning with Wall Street's expectations and reversing October's slight decline.

Market Outlook

Futures contracts for the S&P 500 indicate a potential opening decline of 19 points, while those for the Dow Jones Industrial Average suggest a drop of 166 points. The Nasdaq futures are pricing in a possible 50-point decrease. Market observers note that strong economic data, such as the latest retail sales figures, may influence the Federal Reserve's policy decisions, potentially affecting interest rate adjustments in the coming months.


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