Optimal Blue Releases May Data Findings, Announces Expansion Of Monthly Report For More Comprehensive Lender Profitability Insights

PLANO, Texas, June 10, 2025 (SEND2PRESS NEWSWIRE) — Optimal Blue today released the May 2025 edition of its now-expanded Market Advantage mortgage data report, which features newly added borrower profile and capital market datasets for a more comprehensive picture of early-stage mortgage activity and loan profitability. The enhancements come at a critical time for mortgage lenders navigating heightened interest rates, tighter margins, increased volatility and deepening affordability challenges.

Image caption: Optimal Blue’s May 2025 Market Advantage mortgage data report.

NEW DATA REVEALS DEEPER INSIGHTS INTO BORROWER BEHAVIOR AND CAPITAL MARKETS DYNAMICS

This month’s report includes five new borrower profile metrics, including first-time homebuyer status, debt-to-income ratio and citizenship, as well as four new secondary market indicators, including data on loan sale execution and servicing valuations. These insights help lenders understand not just who is borrowing, but how loan performance and profitability are being shaped in capital markets.

“The Market Advantage has long been a trusted source for early mortgage market insights, and we’ve used Optimal Blue’s position as the leader in capital markets technology to take the report to the next level,” said Mike Vough, head of corporate strategy at Optimal Blue. “These new metrics provide deeper insight into the interconnectedness of front-end borrower affordability and back-end loan sale execution, allowing housing finance professionals and market observers alike to better understand how primary market activity and secondary market dynamics intersect to drive lending profitability.”

SPRING HOMEBUYING SEASON UNDERPERFORMS AS AFFORDABILITY TIGHTENS

While May typically brings a seasonal lift in purchase activity, this year’s data tells a different story. Total lock volume fell 5.87% month-over-month (MoM), and purchase activity was flat – a clear underperformance for what is typically one of the strongest homebuying months of the year. Rising interest rates further suppressed refinance incentives, dragging refinance share down from 21% to 16%.

“Rising mortgage rates are squeezing borrower affordability, while tighter spreads are putting pressure on lenders in the secondary market,” said Brennan O’Connell, director of data solutions at Optimal Blue. “With the brief window of affordability relief now closed, the new data shows first-time buyers are feeling the strain, with modest declines in their share of conforming and FHA loan locks.”

Key findings from the Market Advantage report, derived from direct-source mortgage lock and secondary market data, include:

• Overall lock activity declines: Total mortgage rate lock volume fell 5.87% MoM, reflecting a more difficult rate environment.
• Refinance activity drops sharply: Refinance share declined from 21% to 16% as rising rates further eroded borrower incentive. Rate-and-term refinances were down 44.4% MoM, while cash-out refis fell 10%.
• Spring purchase demand underwhelms: Purchase activity was flat MoM, and purchase lock counts (which control for home price appreciation) were down 10% year-over-year (YoY).
• Rates rise and spreads tighten: The OBMMI 30-year conforming fixed rate (the benchmark for the CME Mortgage Rate futures) rose 16 basis points to 6.84%. The 10-year Treasury yield increased 26 bps to 4.41%, narrowing the OBMMI-Treasury spread to 2.44%, a 10 bps MoM contraction. This signal of rising secondary market pressure was reinforced by slight declines in two of the newly added metrics in this month’s report: servicing valuations and the share of loans executed at the highest price.
• Product mix shifts modestly: Conforming loan share rose to 51.9% (up 92 bps), and nonconforming share edged up to 16.4% (up 4 bps). Government-backed lending declined as FHA share fell to 19.7% (down 52 bps), VA dropped to 11.4% (down 48 bps) and USDA lending held steady at 0.7%.
• Credit quality holds steady: The average FICO score and average debt-to-income (DTI) ratio held steady across various loan programs.
• Loan amounts trend lower: The average loan amount dipped slightly to $386,460 from April’s $387,523. Average loan-to-value (LTV) ratio stood at 80.87%. Across the top 30 metropolitan statistical areas, average loan amounts ranged from a high of $602,888 in metro New York to a low of $385,597 in Raleigh, North Carolina.
• ARM usage declines: Adjustable-rate mortgages accounted for 9.11% of lock volume, down from 10.3% in April.
• FTHB share softens: First-time homebuyer share was 42% for conforming loans (down 1%), 68% for FHA (down 2%) and 48% for VA (up 1%). The decline in conforming and FHA FTHB share suggests affordability headwinds may be weighing more heavily on entry-level borrowers.
• Non-QM lending edges up: Loans locked under expanded guidelines (i.e., non-QM) represented 7.36% of May’s volume, continuing a gradual upward trend as lenders and borrowers explore alternative qualification paths.

To view the full May 2025 Market Advantage report, complete the free subscription form: https://engage.optimalblue.com/market-advantage. Subscribers receive a report PDF each month with the latest data. Members of the press are eligible for special, advance access each month and should contact Olivia DeLancey to be added to the media list.

This month’s Market Advantage podcast features Optimal Blue CEO Joe Tyrrell. Access the podcast: https://market-advantage.captivate.fm/episode/episode-9/

ABOUT THE MARKET ADVANTAGE REPORT

Optimal Blue issues the Market Advantage mortgage data report each month to provide insight into U.S. mortgage trends and drivers of lending profitability. Data is sourced from the Optimal Blue PPE, which is used to price and lock more than one-third of all mortgages nationwide, and Optimal Blue’s hedging and loan trading system, which supports approximately 40% of loans hedged and sold into the secondary market. As the leader in mortgage capital markets technology, Optimal Blue has a direct view of both origination and secondary market activity, and the interconnectedness of the two. Unlike self-reported survey data, Optimal Blue’s direct-source data accurately reflect the in-process loans in lenders’ pipelines and secondary market executions. Visit Optimal Blue’s website to subscribe to receive the free report each month.

Nothing herein shall be construed as, nor is Optimal Blue providing, any legal, trading, hedging, or financial advice.

About Optimal Blue

Optimal Blue effectively bridges the primary and secondary mortgage markets to deliver the industry’s only end-to-end capital markets platform. The company helps lenders of all sizes and scopes maximize profitability and operate efficiently so they can help American borrowers achieve the dream of homeownership. Through innovative technology, a network of interconnectivity, rich data insights, and expertise gathered over more than 20 years, Optimal Blue is an experienced partner that, in any market environment, allows lenders to optimize their advantage from pricing accuracy to margin protection, and every step in between. To learn more, visit https://OptimalBlue.com/.

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Image caption: Optimal Blue’s May 2025 Market Advantage mortgage data report

News Source: Optimal Blue

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