Are Whitbread plc (LON:WTB) Investors Paying Above The Intrinsic Value?

Key Insights Whitbread's estimated fair value is UK£23.63 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity Whitbread is estimated to be 34% overvalued based on current share price of UK£31.75 Analyst price target for WTB is UK£41.59, which is 76% above our fair value estimate How far off is Whitbread plc (LON:WTB) from its intrinsic value? Using the most recent financial data, we'll take a look at whether the stock is fairly priced by estimating the company's future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. We will take advantage of the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model for this purpose. Believe it or not, it's not too difficult to follow, as you'll see from our example! We would caution that there are many ways of valuing a company and, like the DCF, each technique has advantages and disadvantages in certain scenarios. Anyone interested in learning a bit more about intrinsic value should have a read of the Simply Wall St analysis model. Check out our latest analysis for Whitbread Crunching The Numbers We are going to use a two-stage DCF model, which, as the name states, takes into account two stages of growth.

The first stage is generally a higher growth period which levels off heading towards the terminal value, captured in the second 'steady growth' period. To begin with, we have to get estimates of the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, and so the sum of these future cash flows is then discounted to today's value: Story continues 10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 Levered FCF (£, Millions) UK£242.4m UK£283.4m UK£317.0m UK£327.0m UK£395.0m UK£425.8m UK£451.1m UK£472.1m UK£489.8m UK£505.1m Growth Rate Estimate Source Analyst x3 Analyst x4 Analyst x4 Analyst x1 Analyst x1 Est @ 7.79% Est @ 5.95% Est @ 4.66% Est @ 3.75% Est @ 3.12% Present Value (£, Millions) Discounted @ 11% UK£219 UK£232 UK£235 UK£219 UK£240 UK£234 UK£224 UK£212 UK£199 UK£186 ("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St) Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = UK£2.2b The second stage is also known as Terminal Value, this is the business's cash flow after the first stage. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (1.6%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 11%. Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2033 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = UK£505m× (1 + 1.6%) ÷ (11%– 1.6%) = UK£5.8b Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= UK£5.8b÷ ( 1 + 11%)10= UK£2.1b The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next ten years plus the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is UK£4.3b.

The last step is to then divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of UK£31.8, the company appears potentially overvalued at the time of writing. Valuations are imprecise instruments though, rather like a telescope - move a few degrees and end up in a different galaxy. Do keep this in mind. dcf Important Assumptions We would point out that the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate and of course the actual cash flows.

If you don't agree with these result, have a go at the calculation yourself and play with the assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Whitbread as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 11%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.619. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole.

We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business. SWOT Analysis for Whitbread Strength Earnings growth over the past year exceeded the industry. Debt is not viewed as a risk. Dividends are covered by earnings and cash flows. Weakness Earnings growth over the past year is below its 5-year average.

Dividend is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the Hospitality market. Opportunity Annual revenue is forecast to grow faster than the British market. Good value based on P/E ratio compared to estimated Fair P/E ratio. Threat Annual earnings are forecast to grow slower than the British market. Next Steps: Although the valuation of a company is important, it is only one of many factors that you need to assess for a company.

DCF models are not the be-all and end-all of investment valuation. Preferably you'd apply different cases and assumptions and see how they would impact the company's valuation. If a company grows at a different rate, or if its cost of equity or risk free rate changes sharply, the output can look very different. Can we work out why the company is trading at a premium to intrinsic value? For Whitbread, we've put together three fundamental items you should assess: Risks: As an example, we've found 1 warning sign for Whitbread that you need to consider before investing here. Future Earnings: How does WTB's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.

Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing! PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the LSE every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here. Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content?Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.