Refinery expansions set to drive India’s oil imports in second half of 2025, says Vortexa

India is likely to import more crude oil in the second half of 2025 as refining capacity is set to increase, according to Vortexa. 

In the first quarter of 2025, India experienced a surge in crude/condensate imports, culminating in a record 5.0 million barrels per day in March.

However, this import level declined in April and May, primarily due to scheduled refinery maintenance.

“We expect India’s crude imports to increase in H2 2025 compared to the same period last year, mainly due to more available refining capacity,” Ivan Mathews, head of market analysis, APAC, Vortexa, said in a report. 

In February 2025, Hindustan Petroleum Corporation (HPCL) declared plans to increase the capacity of its Visakhapatnam (Vizag) refinery to 300,000 barrels per day.

Crude imports via the Vizag seaborne route have risen since March, enabling the refinery to operate successfully at an enhanced capacity, according to Vortexa.

HPCL aims to launch its residue upgradation facility (RUF) during the third quarter of 2025. 

The HPCL initiative is expected to improve the production of higher-value products, specifically middle distillates, at the expense of fuel oil, subsequently enhancing gross refining margins.

Maintenance work to conclude

Consequently, marginal increases in crude oil processing could occur, potentially driving import growth, Mathews added.

Maintenance on several Indian refineries is set to conclude in the upcoming quarter. 

Specifically, the 140,000 barrels per day CDU operated by Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Ltd (MRPL) is projected to be back online by the end of June.

Mathews said:

Meanwhile, we hear that Indian Oil Corporation (IOC) is expected to complete maintenance works at the 270kbd Gujarat refinery by July 2025.

By the close of this year, the HPCL Rajasthan Refinery Limited (HRRL) 180,000 barrels a day greenfield Barmer refinery-petrochemical complex is anticipated to commence commissioning, with 2026 as the target for full operation.

With commissioning proceeding as planned, India’s medium/heavy sour crude imports are projected to rise by approximately 100,000 barrels per day in the first quarter of 2026, according to Vortexa. 

These imports will continue to expand as the complex becomes fully operational.

Russia to remain top supplier

Mathews added:

We foresee that India will continue to import majority of crude from Russia due to discounts on Russian oil, which translate to better refining economics for refineries in India.

India’s primary Russian crude oil import will remain the medium sour Urals grade, supplemented by other grades including Sokol and ESPO.

Voretxa believes that India has accelerated its acquisition of ESPO crude, slated for June loading. 

Consequently, the shiptracking company anticipates a further surge in India’s near-term imports of Russian crude oil.

During their Washington meeting in February, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and US President Donald Trump agreed that New Delhi would increase oil and gas purchases from America. 

India imports mostly light sweet crude like WTI, competing with discounted Sokol crude and West African grades.

Due to halted Venezuelan crude exports to the US and potential Canadian wildfire impacts on dilbit supplies, US refiners are expected to retain medium sour crudes like Mars blend domestically.

“For these reasons, we do not foresee a significant increase in India’s imports of U.S. crude,” Mathews noted.

Imports to rise from Saudi Arabia and UAE

Indian crude oil imports from Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) saw an increase in May. With both Saudi Arabia and the UAE planning higher output for June and July, this upward trend in imports is expected to persist, Vortexa said.

Argus pricing data shows the Brent-Dubai Exchange of Futures for Swaps (EFS) expanded in May. This made Middle Eastern crude oil comparatively more affordable versus crude from the Atlantic Basin.

Refineries resuming operations post-maintenance and new projects coming online will drive increased crude oil import demand in India during the second half of 2025. 

Consequently, India’s crude import requirements are expected to rise throughout H2 2025.

Mathews said:

Russia is expected to remain as the dominant supplier of crude into India, and we could see more crude from Saudi Arabia and the UAE heading to India in the months ahead.

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