MCX shares hit record high as UBS sees more upside

Shares of Multi Commodity Exchange of India Ltd. (MCX) soared more than 6% on Wednesday to touch a record high of ₹8,731 per share after global brokerage UBS reiterated its bullish stance and raised its price target to ₹10,000 — the most optimistic among brokerages tracked by Bloomberg.

The revised target implies a 15% upside from current levels.

UBS analysts said the market has yet to fully price in the growth potential from MCX’s expanding product portfolio and robust trading volumes.

“We expect key commodities’ average daily value (ADV) to remain strong amid volatility caused by geopolitical uncertainties,” UBS said in a note dated June 24.

New products seen as key growth drivers for MCX

MCX’s trading activity has seen a significant uptick since April.

Futures ADV has climbed about 50% quarter-on-quarter, while option premiums’ ADV has grown by 30%, according to UBS.

The exchange recently received regulatory approval from SEBI to launch electricity derivatives — a product that UBS believes could contribute 3–12% to revenue.

Other products in the pipeline include monthly bullion contracts and index options, which are expected to add further momentum in the near to medium term.

“On new silver options, we expect good traction given the preference for near-to-expiry contracts,” UBS noted.

The brokerage also upgraded its earnings estimates for FY27–FY28 by 13–17% and now expects a 26% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) in earnings for FY26–FY28, driven by operating leverage.

MCX seen holding ground despite NSE competition

UBS addressed investor concerns about market share loss to the National Stock Exchange (NSE), which has launched similar commodity products.

However, it noted that trading volumes on NSE’s commodity derivatives have remained tepid, while MCX’s new technology platform has seen consistent growth in both futures and options.

“We are now less concerned about market share losses as liquidity drives volumes on an exchange,” the analysts wrote.

“Structurally, we believe MCX is well-positioned to deliver secular growth as awareness of hedging commodities increases in the domestic market, specifically for electricity derivatives,” UBS said.

Stock outperformance continues

Wednesday’s gains marked the sharpest intraday rally for MCX since June 9.

Year to date, the stock has jumped nearly 39%, vastly outperforming the Nifty 50 index, which is up just 6.5% in the same period.

ICICI Securities also remains positive on the stock, maintaining an ‘add’ rating and raising its target price to ₹8,800.

The brokerage cited the ongoing surge in trading volumes since the start of FY26 and continued geopolitical tensions driving commodity price swings.

MCX’s market capitalization now stands at ₹43,807.60 crore.

With supportive fundamentals, new product approvals, and strong volume trends, analysts expect MCX to maintain its leadership in India’s commodity trading landscape, even as volatility remains a near-term tailwind.

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