Is No-Deal Brexit Still Possible?

  • Feb 28, 2019 GMT
  • Team Kalkine
Is No-Deal Brexit Still Possible?

Global financial giant Goldman Sachs has reduced its probability of a “no-deal” Britain divorce from the European Union to 10 per cent from 15 per cent earlier. Global fund manager and analysts of other banks have also trimmed their chances of Brexit without a deal scheduled on March 29, 2019.

Analysts at the Goldman Sachs have increased the probability of extension of Article 50 by 55 per cent from 50 per cent earlier but remain firm on the chances of a “no Brexit” scenario at 35 per cent. 

Meanwhile, the British Prime Minister Theresa May has said she would present her EU divorce agreement including any amendment she has agreed with European Union to a meaningful vote by 12th March. If that does not work out, Members of the House will be asked for two separate votes, one on whether lawmakers support a no-deal Brexit and second on whether MPs could extend Article 50, to delay Brexit beyond the scheduled time which is March 29.

She also added that any extension would not go beyond the end of June 2019. But so far, members have denied backing Theresa May's deal.

Why Britain is leaving the EU bloc?

On March 29, 2016, a referendum took place on the land of Britain to determine whether the majority wants to leave the European Union bloc, or they want to stick with the EU bloc, in which every one of voting age was allowed to cast their vote either in the favour or against the Brexit. Britain's exit won by 51.9 per cent to 48.1 per cent. More than 30 million citizens cast their vote on this referendum.

When is Brexit scheduled to take place?

For Britain to crash out of the European Union, it had to invoke Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty which provides both the sides twenty-four-month time to decide the terms of the break-up. The British Prime Minister Theresa May has invoked Article 50 on 29th March 2017, therefore Brexit to scheduled to takes place on March 29, 2019.

Let’s understand Article 50

Article 50 gives an invocation procedure through that an EU member country can exit the EU bloc after proper notification to the EU council. It was designed as a part of the Treaty of Lisbon- an agreement signed by the all European Union member countries. It became a law in 2009, before that there was no legitimate mechanism for a member to leave the EU bloc.

What if Theresa May fails to get a Brexit deal through the House of Commons?

The possible consequences could be, Leaving the EU bloc without any trade agreement, A new referendum on this contentious Brexit, Members of the House of Commons, could take control of the Brexit process from the Theresa May government, and an extension of the UK divorce from European Union for few months.

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