Mining rollercoaster to ease in 2023

Slowing global growth and inflation will continue to threaten profitability for the mining sector in 2023, but it should be less of a rollercoaster.

Credit ratings agency Fitch expects mining and metals to become relatively more stable following the tumultuous year for commodities prices in 2022.

Critical minerals will remain a key focus with Australia named as a "winner" as a key producer of many strategic materials.

Companies such as Rio Tinto and BHP, which are well-positioned to carry out critical mineral projects, are tipped to benefit.

Local refiners - a small but growing group - are expected to benefit from increased investment and exports as Australia and its allies look to secure supplies of crucial critical minerals and raw earth minerals.

Much of Australia's raw lithium is shipped to China, where most of the world's battery material is processed, but global partnerships are sparking the development of new plants here - for nickel as well as lithium.

Canada, citing security for local supply chains, ordered China to divest their holdings in three lithium mining companies in November.

Australia has not followed suit, with firms from China, Europe and the United States signed up for supplies and as partners in future plants.

Those investing in renewable energy infrastructure to power operations - Fortescue Metals, Rio Tinto, Anglo American and Glencore - are also in the winners column.

However, the global economic slowdown will cap prices for minerals and metals as inflationary pressures deter demand, Fitch warns.

Lead and gold are the only metals given a neutral to positive outlook by Fitch, with tin and lithium expected to underperform more than other metals and minerals.

That means manufacturers of electronics and batteries, including electric car makers, and construction companies will benefit from overall lower prices.

Iron ore and steel producers will see production decline as economies slow and prices decline.

Other than in critical minerals, tighter mining margins are expected to lead to a reduction in exploration and spending on new projects.

Instead, many companies will focus on maintaining current operations to sustain output capacity. 

Skills shortages and rising wages are expected to pose risks to mining companies across the globe in 2023.

And the energy crisis will remain in the spotlight for many countries, likely leading to a slower exit for coal, especially for China.

Fitch said miners with large coal portfolios and production capabilities - and coal-rich countries such as Australia - will benefit from higher exports, while companies that have divested are "losers".

Strikes and protests from indigenous communities and environmental activists are likely to continue into 2023. 

Workers organised strikes at mines run by Peabody Energy, South32 and BHP during 2022, as spiralling inflation delivered a cut in real wages. 

"With inflation set to remain elevated in 2023, we expect labour strikes to continue," Fitch said.